Daweda Review - Unique binary options exchange

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act submitted by cryptolobe to cryptolobe [link] [comments]

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act submitted by a36 to AllThingsCrypto [link] [comments]

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act submitted by Ranzware to BitNewsLive [link] [comments]

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act

Binary Options Scams Spread Into Crypto, Time for US Lawmakers to Act submitted by EpixDk to buyandsellbtc [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Binary Options & Binary Spread Trading

Bitcoin Binary Options & Binary Spread Trading submitted by saadmerie to udemyfreebies [link] [comments]

Want to Day Trade? Try Binary Options Or Spread Betting

submitted by optionenbinaere to optionstrading [link] [comments]

Anyone use Kelly Criterion for position sizing?

I’m new and learning about strategies for selling options, I’ve been watching lots of tastytrade lately. I want to figure out a way to optimize position sizing based on my bankroll and the probabilities of profit.
For anyone who knows of the Kelly Criterion or has seen their video on it, how can it be applied effectively to making trades? I’d expect that the theoretical expected value of selling options is 0 so the Kelly Criterion would be difficult to use without knowing the realized probability of profit. Any pointers?
submitted by poppy1234567 to thetagang [link] [comments]

The Division 2 - Title Update 10 - Patch Notes

Title Update 10 - Patch Notes

*These are preliminary Patch Notes and changes may still happen until the launch of Title Update 10.
 

New Season – Keener’s Legacy

A new season is almost upon us! Starting on June 23rd, Keener’s Legacy offers 12 weeks of in-game activities and unique rewards. Season 2 brings a new Seasonal Manhunt, new Leagues, a new Global event and new unique rewards, as well as an Apparel Event.
 

New Raid - Operation Iron Horse

The True Sons have taken over a Foundry to develop new weapons and threaten to destroy everything the Division has worked for.
  • New bosses, puzzles and rewards!
  • Level 40 version available on June 30th, followed the next week by the level 30 version.
  • Discovery mode will become available at a later date.
  • Unique Rewards
    • 2 new Exotics
    • 2 new Gear Sets
    • New cosmetic rewards
  • Further details will become available closer to the raid’s release in late June.
 

Balance and Bug Fixes

Title Update 10 is bringing our first large balance pass following the release of Warlords of New York. Beyond the addition of new content, the update focuses on three main aspects mainly game health through bug fixes and balancing, generosity by increasing your chances to receive a high-quality item as loot and increasing overall player power. Scroll down for a full list of bug fixes, balancing changes and gameplay tweaks.
 

Missing Localized Audio

We wanted to inform you about an issue with localized audio that will be present when we launch Title Update 10 and Season 2. While the team was able to work from home to get this update ready, with your help testing the content on the PTS, we unfortunately were not able to record all localized audio content for TU10. With everything going on in the world, our top priority is the well-being of our teams, including our voice actors. Of course, we will start working on recording the missing audio with our partners when it is safe to do so and, in some cases, we were able to get things started already. Adding the localized files to the game as soon as we can in one of our next updates is an absolute priority for the team. This only affects Seasonal content. Operation Iron Horse audio is fully localized.
If you are currently playing with a non-English client, you don’t have to change anything going into Title Update 10. When localized audio is missing you will just hear the English audio instead. Subtitles have been localized and can be activated in the ingame options.
As work continues, we will update you on the progress of the integration here on the forums and on State of the Game.
Thank you and stay safe!
 

New Exotics

SRS Sniper Rifle: Mantis

  • Your scoped view displays additional information about enemies not targeting you
  • Your scoped view highlights enemy weakpoints
  • Headshot and weak point damage against enemies not targeting you amplified by 50%
  • Headshot kills reset the cooldown of the Decoy skill. This bonus will wait until the Decoy goes on cooldown if currently active
 

Mask: Vile

  • Status effects also apply a damage over time debuff for 10s
  • Total damage dealt is equal to 50% of your concussion grenade damage and increased by your status effect attributes
 

Double Barrel Rifle: The Ravenous (Operation Iron Horse)

  • On trigger-pull, fire both barrels at once
  • When fired from the right shoulder, hits add offensive primers, and defensive primers when fired from the left shoulder
  • Hits from one shoulder will detonate all of the opposite shoulder's primers when present
  • When detonated or affected enemy is killed, each offensive primer deals 100% weapon damage, while each defensive primer grants +4% bonus armor and +10% amplified damage to armor plates for 5s
  • Primer effectiveness is doubled at 10 stacks
 

Magnum Pistol: Regulus (Operation Iron Horse)

  • Headshot kills create a 5m explosion, dealing 400% weapon damage and applying bleed to all enemies hit.
  • High accuracy and base damage
 

New Gear Sets

Eclipse Protocol (Season 2)

  • Core: Skill Tier (Yellow)
  • 2: +15% Status Effects
  • 3: +15% Skill Haste and +30% Hazard Protection
  • 4: "Indirect Transmission" Your status effects now spread on kill to all enemies within 15m and refresh 50% of the duration.
  • Chest talent: "Proliferation" Increases Indirect Transmission range from 15m to 20m and refresh percentage from 50% to 75%
  • Backpack talent: "Symptom Aggravator" Amplifies all damage you deal to status affected targets by 15%
 

Foundry Bulwark (Operation Iron Horse)

  • Core: Armor (Blue)
  • 2: +10% Armor
  • 3: +3% Armor Regeneration
  • 4: "Makeshift Repairs" Whenever you or your shield take damage, 20% of that amount is repaired to both over 15s
  • Chest talent: "Process Refinery" Increases Makeshift Repairs from 20% to 30% over 15s
  • Backpack talent: "Improved Materials" Increases Makeshift Repairs speed from 15s to 10s
 

Future Initiative (Operation Iron Horse)

  • Core: Skill Tier (Yellow)
  • 2: +30% Repair Skills
  • 3: +30% Skill Duration and +15% Skill Haste
  • 4: "Ground Control" Increases you and your allies' total weapon and skill damage by 15% when at full armor
  • When you repair an ally, you and all allies within 5m of you are also repaired for 60% of that amount
  • Chest talent: "Tactical Superiority" Increases Ground Control damage bonus from +15% to +25%
  • Backpack talent: "Advanced Combat Tactics" Increases Ground Control proximity repair from 60% to 120%
 

New Gear Brand

Walker, Harris & Co.

  • Core: Weapon Damage (Red)
  • 1: +5.0% Weapon Damage
  • 2: +5.0% Damage to Armor
  • 3: +5.0% Damage to Health
 

New Named Weapons

  • Mechanical Animal (SIG 556) with Future Perfection
    • Weapon kills grant +1 skill tier for 19s. Stacks up to 3 times.
    • Weapon kills at skill tier 6 grant overcharge for 15s.
    • Overcharge Cooldown: 90s
  • Harmony (Resolute MK47) with Perfectly In Sync
    • Hitting an enemy grants +20% skill damage for 5s.
    • Using a skill or damaging an enemy with a skill grants +20% weapon damage for 5s.
    • Damage increases are doubled while both buffs are active at the same time.
 

New Named Gear

  • Matador (Walker, Harris & Co. backpack) with Perfect Adrenaline Rush
    • When you are within 10m of an enemy, gain 23% bonus armor for 5s. Stacks up to 3 times.
    • Cooldown: 5s
    • Chainkiller (Walker, Harris & Co. chest) with Perfect Headhunter. After killing an enemy with a headshot, your next weapon hit within 30s deals 150% of that killing blow’s damage in addition to it.
    • Damage is capped to 800% of your weapon damage. This is raised to 1250% if your headshot damage is greater than 150%.
 

New Skill Variant

  • Repair Trap
    • The Repair Trap deploys a line of small devices capable of repairing friendlies in their proximity.
    • Note: The Repair Trap will not be available in-game until the Seasonal prime target unlocks in August.
 

New Talents

Weapon Talent: Future Perfect
  • Weapon kills grant +1 skill tier for 15s. Stacks up to 3 times.
  • Weapon kills at skill tier 6 grant overcharge for 15s.
  • Overcharge Cooldown: 90s
 
Weapon Talent: In Sync
  • Hitting an enemy grants +15% skill damage for 5s.
  • Using a skill or damaging an enemy with a skill grants +15% weapon damage for 5s.
  • Damage increases are doubled while both buffs are active at the same time.
 
Backpack Talent: Adrenaline Rush
  • When you are within 10m of an enemy, gain 20% bonus armor for 5s. Stacks up to 3 times.
  • Cooldown: 5s
 
Chest Talent: Headhunter
  • After killing an enemy with a headshot, your next weapon hit within 30s deals 125% of that killing blow’s damage in addition to it.
  • Damage is capped to 800% of your weapon damage. This is raised to 1250% if your headshot damage is greater than 150%.
 

Gameplay Changes

Missions

  • Reduced how many elites will spawn in the following mission:
    • Manning National Zoo
    • Coney Island Ballpark
    • Coney Island Amusement Park
    • Camp White Oak
    • Space Administration HQ
    • Federal Emergency Bunker
    • Wall Street
    • Liberty Island
    • Pathway Park
    • Stranded Tanker
    • The Tombs
 

Loot

  • General
    • Added all new season 2 weapons/gear to general loot pools
  • Item Power
    • Updated item power distribution to have a better spread between minimum and maximum for all difficulties
    • Increased minimum rolled item power for Field Proficiency/DZ caches, Clan caches and Season caches.
  • Difficulty Scaling
    • Regular loot from loot containers in Missions now scale with mission difficulty
    • Targeted loot from loot containers in Missions now scales with mission difficulty
    • Loot containers part of living world activities now scale with global difficulty
  • Targeted loot
    • Increased targeted loot drop chances for all mission and Control Point difficulties
    • Added new season 2 brand to targeted loot rotation
    • Warlords of New York brands can now also show up as targeted loot in DC, including Dark Zones
  • Named Items
    • Increased named item drop chance in regular Dark Zone loot
    • Increased named item drop chance in targeted loot everywhere
  • Exotics
    • Added Warlords of New York/Season 1 Exotics (excluding The Bighorn) to targeted loot
    • Added Warlords of New York/Season 1 Exotics (excluding The Bighorn) to general Exotic loot pools (Heroic/Legendary/Raid/Exotic Cache)
    • Coyote's Mask drop from Coyote no longer has a minimum season level requirement
  • Control Points
    • Removed regular weapon/gear loot containers not scaling with difficulty from Control Points
    • Increased the amount of scaling loot from the big Control Point reward container
  • Legendary
    • Increased NPC loot drop chance for Veterans and Elites on Legendary difficulty
 

Crafting

  • Crafting will now guarantee a higher minimum item power, resulting in higher overall stat rolls. An increased maximum item power also allows for better crafted items than before. The added weighting between the minimum and maximum power results in a more balanced average outcome for crafted and reconfigured items
  • Removed final World Tier 5 crafting bench upgrade, as its power increase is now redundant
 

Vendors

  • Added Named Items to both Open World and Dark Zone vendors
  • Increased prices for Named Items
  • Increased item power for all vendors
  • Vendors no longer sell Superior quality items at maximum level
 

SHD Levels

  • Added Field Proficiency cache to SHD level-up after reaching the maximum season level
  • Increased crafting material rewards for spending SHD level points in the Scavenging category
 

Conflict

  • Added Season/SHD experience gain on Conflict level-up
 

Rogue Agent Encounters

  • Every Rogue Agent killed will now drop loot
  • Rogue Agent encounters no longer occur during time trials
 

Control Point Officers

  • Players revived by a Control Point Officer will now have 80% of their armor restored (Previously 0%)
  • Reduced the likelihood of Control Point Officers being downed in combat
 

Bounties

  • Bounties acquired by speaking to characters in the open world will always be set to the difficulty at time of acquisition or higher.
  • This affects the Snitch and civilians rescued during the Public Execution or Rescue Living World Activities.
  • Scheduled bounties, such as daily and clan bounties, are unaffected.
Developer comment: Bounties acquired in the open world should always provide challenge and loot appropriate to the world they were acquired in. Upping your global difficulty now has the added benefit of improving all bounties you acquire within it.
 

Projects

  • New Season Pass Holder Project Slot.
    • Season Pass holders now have access to an exclusive daily mission which provides a large bonus to XP.
  • Weekly SHD Requisition Project Slot
    • Endgame players at World Tier 5 and Level 40 now have a weekly supplies donation project which rewards them with an exotic cache. (For World Tier 5 players, this replaces the previous daily SHD Requisition project.)
  • Legendary Mission Project
    • After TU10, completing any legendary mission will grant you the Weekly Legendary Mission project slot.
    • Completing the designated legendary mission will reward you with an exotic cache.
Developer comment: With the addition of "re-rolls" to exotics available through crafting, we created the new Weekly projects to provide a reliable supply of exotic components or exotic items.
 

RPG Balance

 

Incoming Repairs

  • Incoming Repairs no longer increases the amount of armor repaired by armor kits, talents or gear set effects.
Developer comment: Incoming Repairs was always meant to be the defensive attribute equivalent to Repair Skills, so that players could further enhance the amount of healing they receive from their skills, or the group's healer. Unfortunately, the underlying code prevented us from differentiating between alternate sources of armor repair, such as those from talents and gear sets like Foundry Bulwark, or Firewall's unique armor kit effect. We wanted to address this during the development of Warlords of New York, but chose to post-pone the fix in order to deal with higher priority issues at the time. We underestimated the extent to which this attribute would affect the new Warlords meta, and failed to predict the severity of degenerate gameplay it would cause when combined with certain talents or gear sets. It's important to stress that this is not a PvP-only issue, or an instance of the PvP environment affecting PvE balance. Incoming Repairs was compromising both aspects of the game, and needed to be addressed, especially considering this update coincides with the release of a new raid. Not addressing the issue would mean forcing ourselves to balance all existing and future gear and talents around the knowledge that players could potentially (read: very likely) double the amount of repairs they receive, which stifles creativity and effectively limits player choice.
 

Weapon Handling

  • 1% Weapon Handling now gives 1% Weapon Accuracy, Stability, Reload Speed, and Swap Speed, up from 0.25%.
  • Reduced the maximum amount of Weapon Handling rolled on gear by 6%, to a maximum of 8% at level 40.
Developer comment: In the current meta, Weapon Handling on gear is considered a dead stat with no significant benefit. In TU10, equipping a piece of gear with +8% Weapon Handling will now give you:
  • +8% Accuracy
  • +8% Stability
  • +8% Swap Speed
  • +8% Reload Speed
This should hopefully make Weapon Handling a strong complimentary attribute for players looking to increase their overall accuracy/stability (bloom + recoil) and/or reload/swap speed. Making the % amount of Weapon Accuracy/Stability/Swap Speed/Reload Speed gained from Weapon Handling 1:1 will also remove another element of arcane knowledge from the game and reduce the need for additional mental math when determining whether the bonus is an upgrade or not.
 

Talent Changes:

  • Leadership: Bonus Armor increased to 15% from 12%
  • Spike: Skill Damage Duration increased to 15s from 8s
  • Reformation: Skill Repair Duration increased to 15s from 8s
  • Creeping Death: No Longer goes on cooldown if there are no valid nearby enemies to apply a status effect to. Status effects applied now properly copy the source status effect’s damage and duration.
 

PvP

  • Global Damage Modifiers
    • Reduced all PvP weapon damage by -20%
  • Additional Damage Modifiers
    • Increased MMR PvP weapon damage by 12.5%
    • Reduced Assault Rifle PvP weapon damage by -15%
    • Reduced Shotgun PvP damage by -12.5%
    • Reduced SMG PvP damage by -10%
    • Reduced Pistol PvP damage by -10%
    • Reduced Rifle PvP damage by -5%
 
_Developer comment: With TU10, there have been significant buffs made to the base damage of assault rifles, SMGs, and shotguns in particular. In order to prevent those weapons from becoming overly powerful in PvP, we’ve had to lower their PvP damage modifiers to compensate.
Note: Assault rifles are still tuned to be 10% stronger than normal in PvP in order to compensate for their innate Damage to Health bonus being less useful against other players when compared to other weapon archetypes._
 
  • Specific Damage Modifiers
    • Increased Double Barrel Shotgun PvP damage by 16.6%
    • Reduced Pestilence PvP damage by -10%
    • Reduced Classic M1A damage by -5%
  • Exotic Modifiers
    • Merciless/Ruthless: “Binary Trigger” amplified weapon damage and explosion damage reduced by -50% in PvP
    • Dodge City Gunslinger’s Holster: “Quick Draw” damage bonus gained per stack in PvP lowered from +2% to +1%
      • Stacks gained per second in PvP now match the PvE value (0.5s to 0.3s)
    • Imperial Dynasty:
      • No longer automatically applies burn status effect to the nearest enemy in range.
      • Now requires maintaining range and LOS (line-of-sight) for 3 seconds between the holster bearer and nearest enemy before applying the burn status effect.
      • Added visual UI feedback to reveal the radius of effect in PvP and an indicator for LOS between the holster bearer and nearest enemy.
Developer comment: This should help address the lack of contextual feedback in PvP, and add a much needed window of opportunity for counterplay, or potential to avoid the incoming effect entirely.
 
  • * Pestilence * Plague of the Outcast damage-over-time effect no longer triggers True Patriot’s white debuff armor repair effect. (PvP and PvE)
Developer comment: While we like to embrace emergent or unintended mechanics when the end result is unique and fun gameplay, True Patriot’s white debuff explicitly states it requires shooting the debuffed target in order to receive the armor repair effect. Pestilence’s DoT managed to bypass this restriction, making it and True Patriot (especially when combined with Incoming Repairs) scale to disproportionate levels of power when used together.
 
  • Gear Set Modifiers
    • Negotiator’s Dilemma
      • Reduced the range at which marked targets can damage each other when critically hit to 15m (PvP only).
      • Added visual UI feedback when in range of another marked target.
  • Talent Modifiers
    • Efficient: Reduced specialization armor kit bonus from 100% to 50%
    • Versatile: Reduced the amplified weapon damage bonus for SMGs and shotguns from 35% to 25%
    • Vanguard: Reduced the duration of shield invulnerability from 5s to 2s
      • Note: UI will still show the old duration, but will be fixed in a later update.
    Specialization Modifiers * Firewall * Extracellular Matrix Mesh armor kit regen strength reduced by -50%, from 200% to 150%
  • Skill Modifiers
    • Pulse now correctly reveals and highlights all players in the DZ, not just hostiles/rogues
    • Increased Striker Drone damage by 30%
    • Increased Assault Turret damage by 55%
    • Reduced Firestarter Chem Launcher PvP damage by -20%
    • Reduced Bleed damage from Stinger Hive, Mortar Turret and Explosive Seeker Mine by 75%
    • Increased Stinger Hive damage by 20%, scaling up to 55% at skill tier 6
 
Developer commentary: We want dedicated skill builds to have multiple, powerful defensive tools for area denial/control. However, the strength of bleed effects meant being hit by just 1 stinger drone, mortar, or seeker mine was nearly a death sentence for most builds. The stinger hive should now better punish players who remain within its area of effect, rather than needing to rely entirely on the excessive damage of a single bleed DoT, while allowing the hive’s drone damage to scale higher for dedicated skill builds.
 

Weapon Balance

 

Assault Rifles

  • AK-M – 15.8% damage increase
  • F2000 – 14.3% damage increase
  • Military AK-M – 13.2% damage increase
  • Black Market AK-M – 13.2% damage increase
  • FAL – 12.0% damage increase
  • FAL SA-58 – 12.0% damage increase
  • FAL SA-58 Para – 12.0% damage increase
  • SOCOM Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase
  • Tactical Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase
  • Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase
  • AUG A3-CQC – 11.2% damage increase
  • Honey Badger – 10.9% damage increase
  • FAMAS 2010 – 10.6% damage increase
  • ACR – 9.7% damage increase
  • ACR-E – 9.7% damage increase
  • Military G36 – 9.5% damage increase
  • G36 C – 9.5% damage increase
  • G36 Enhanced – 9.5% damage increase
  • Carbine 7 – 8.7 % damage increase
  • Military P416 – 7.4% damage increase
  • Custom P416 G3 - 7.4% damage increase
  • Police M4 – 6.8% damage increase
  • CTAR 21 – 8.6% damage increase
 

LMG

  • Classic M60 – 12.5% damage increase
  • Classic RPK-74 – 12.4% damage increase
  • Military RPK-74 M – 12.4% damage increase
  • Black Market RPK-74 E – 12.4% damage increase
  • Military M60 E4 – 9.2% damage increase
  • Black Market M60 E6 – 9.2% damage increase
  • Military L86 LSW – 8.5% damage increase
  • Custom L86 A2 – 8.5% damage increase
  • IWI NEGEV – 2.6% damage increase
  • Stoner LMG – 2.0% damage increase
  • M249 B – No changes
  • Tactical M249 Para – No changes
  • Military MK46 – No changes
  • MG5 – No changes
  • Infantry MG5 – 3.2% damage decrease
 

MMR

  • Model 700 – 14.9% damage increase
  • Hunting M44 – 13.5% damage increase
  • Classic M44 Carbine – 12.5% damage increase
  • G28 – 11.4% damage increase
  • SOCOM Mk20 SSR – 9.3% damage increase
  • SR-1 - 8.6% damage increase
  • Custom M44 – 8.1% damage increase
  • M700 Tactical – 8.1% damage increase
  • M700 Carbon – 8.1% damage increase
  • Covert SRS – 6.0% damage increase
  • SRS A1 – 6.0% damage increase
  • Surplus SVD – 2.9% damage decrease
  • Paratrooper SVD – 2.9% damage decrease
 

Rifles

  • UIC15 MOD – 21.6% damage increase
  • 1886 – 21.3% damage increase
  • LVOA-C – 12.1% damage increase
  • M1A CQB – 10.7% damage increase
  • Lightweight M4 – 10.5% damage increase
  • G 716 CQB – 8.7% damage increase
  • SIG 716 – 6.7% damage increase
  • ACR SS – 3.7% damage increase
  • SOCOM M1A – No changes
  • M16A2 – No changes
  • USC .45 ACP - 2.8% damage decrease
  • Urban MDR – 5.5% damage decrease
  • Military Mk17 – 11.8% damage decrease
  • Police Mk17 - 11.8% damage decrease
  • Classic M1A - 12.6% damage decrease
 

SMG

  • Tommy Gun – 38.8% damage increase
  • PP-19 – 29.6% damage increase
  • Enhanced PP-19 – 29.6% damage increase
  • MP7 – 27.5% damage increase
  • MPX – 17.7% damage increase
  • M1928 – 20.0% damage increase
  • P90 – 15.6% damage increase
  • Converted SMG-9 – 15.8% damage increase
  • Black Market T821 – 15.4% damage increase
  • Police T821 – 15.4% damage increase
  • Vector SBR .45 ACP – 14.7% damage increase
  • CMMG Banshee – 12.5% damage increase
  • Police UMP-45 – 12.0% damage increase
  • Tactical UMP-45 – 12.0% damage increase
  • AUG A3 Para XS – 11.8% damage increase
  • Enhanced AUG A3P – 11.8 % damage increase
  • Tactical AUG A3P – 11.8% damage increase
  • Converted SMG-9 A2 – 11.6% damage increase
  • MP5A2 – 10.0% damage increase
  • MP5-N – 10.0% damage increase
  • MP5 ST – 10.0% damage increase
  • Tactical Vector SBR 9mm – 5.9% damage increase
 

Shotguns

  • M870 Express – 23.3% damage increase
  • Military M870 – 23.3% damage increase
  • Custom M870 MCS – 23.3% damage increase
  • Super 90 – 23.2% damage increase
  • Marine Super 90 – 23.2% damage increase
  • Tactical Super 90 SBS – 23.2% damage increase
  • SASG-12 – 21.3% damage increase
  • Tactical SASG-12 K – 21.3% damage increase
  • Black Market SASG-12 S – 21.3% damage increase
  • SPAS-12 – 18.6% damage increase
  • KSG Shotgun – 9.0% damage increase
 

Sidearms

  • Double Barrel Sawed Off Shotgun – Optimal Range reduced to 8m from 11m
  • 586 Magnum – 68.8% damage increase
  • Police 686 Magnum – 68.8% damage increase
  • Maxim 9 - 23.5% damage increase
  • D50 – 17.5% damage increase
  • First Wave PF45 – 13.5% damage increase
  • Custom PF45 – 9.7% damage increase
  • Military M9 – 8.7% damage increase
  • 93R - 7.7% damage increase
  • Snubnosed Diceros – 6.5% damage increase
  • Officer's M9 A1 – 6.3% damage increase
  • Diceros – 5.9% damage increase
  • M45A1 – 9.5% damage decrease
  • Tactical M1911 – 9.5% damage decrease
  • M1911 – 7.3% damage decrease
 

Exotics Changes

Developer comment: Along with the buffs to weapon damage, TU10's significant buff to weapon handling meant some exotic weapon mods no longer made sense or resulted in over tuned performance that no longer fit with the original design. We also took this opportunity to make improvements to underperforming exotic
 
The Bighorn
  • Damage increased by +11.2%
  • Increased optimal range from 27m to 40m
  • Optics mod bonus increased from +0% to +30% Headshot Damage
  • Magazine mod bonus changed from +7% Headshot Damage to +10% Reload Speed
  • Added functionality that provides additional headshot damage, full talent is now:
    • When scoped, switches to semi-automatic fire mode, dealing 450% weapon damage with each shot.
    • (New) Headshots grant +2% headshot damage. Stacks up to 50 times. Resets to 0 at full stacks.
 
Eagle Bearer
  • Damage increased by +7.8%
  • Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Stability to +10% Weapon Handling
 
Chameleon
  • Damage increased by +32.8%
  • Optics mod bonus changed from +15% Accuracy to +15% Critical Hit Chance
  • Muzzle mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +20% Accuracy
  • Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Critical Hit Chance to +10% Stability
  • Optimal range increased by 33.3%, from 15m to 20m
  • Long range effectiveness increased by 19%, from 42m to 50m
  • Added functionality that retains your current buffs to the next combat encounter when combat ends, full talent is now:
    • Hitting 30 headshots grant +20% critical hit chance and +50% critical hit damage for 45s.
    • Hitting 75 body-shots grant +90% weapon damage for 45s.
    • Hitting 30 leg-shots grant +150% reload speed for 45s.
    • (New) Buffs refresh when out of combat.
 
Bullet King
  • Damage increased by +2.6%
 
Nemesis
  • Damage increased by +11.1%
  • Optics mod bonus increased from +35% to +45% Headshot Damage
  • Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +15% to +5% Weapon Handling
 
Liberty
  • Optics mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Headshot Damage
  • Muzzle mod bonus changed from +15% Stability to +5% Critical Hit Chance
  • Magazine mod bonus changed from +15% Reload Speed to +15% Weapon Handling
  • Added functionality to provide extra damage if you're trying to keep stacks, full talent is now:
    • (New) Hits grant +2% weapon damage. Stacks up to 30.
    • Headshots consume all stacks, repairing your shield for 3% per stack.
  • No longer highlights enemy weakpoints when aiming.
 
Merciless/Ruthless
  • Damage increased by +12.5%
  • Muzzle mod bonus reduced from +20% to +10% Stability
  • Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +20% to +10% Weapon Handling
  • Magazine mod bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Reload Speed
  • Added functionality to provide extra non-explosive damage as well, full talent is now:
    • This weapon fires on trigger pull and release.
    • If both bullets hit the same enemy, gain a stack.
    • (New) At 7 stacks, shooting an enemy deals 500% amplified damage and creates a 7m explosion dealing 500% weapon damage, consuming the stacks.
 
Developer Comment: Merciless was previously balanced for its very unwieldy handling and compensated with very high burst damage. With access to much higher accuracy and stability, Binary Trigger’s explosion strength has been toned down.
 
Diamondback
  • Damage increased by +7.7%
  • Text updated to clarify a new target isn’t marked until after the 5s buff.
 
Lullaby/Sweet Dreams
  • Damage increased by +11.0%
 
Lady Death
  • Damage increased by +18.9%
  • Optics mod bonus increased from +5% to +10% Critical Hit Chance
  • Muzzle mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Critical Hit Damage
  • Underbarrel mod changed from +5% Critical Hit Damage to +500% Melee Damage
  • Breathe Free: Lowered the amount of maximum stacks from 40 to 32, and increased the damage amplification per stack from 60% to 75%
 
The Chatterbox
  • Damage increased by +16.7%
  • Optics mod bonus increased from +5% to +15% Critical Hit Chance
  • Muzzle mod bonus changed from +10% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Critical Hit Damage
  • Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Weapon Handling
  • Magazine mod bonus changed from +10% Reload Speed to +10 Rounds
  • Magazine base capacity reduced from 60 to 50
 
Pestilence
  • Muzzle mod bonus changed from +10% Stability to +10% Accuracy
  • Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Weapon Handling to +10% Stability
 
NinjaBike Messenger Kneepads
  • Added functionality to add bonus armor, full talent is now:
    • (New) Performing a cover to cover or vaulting reloads your drawn weapon and grants +25% bonus armor for 5s.
 
Dodge City Gunslinger Holster
  • Added functionality that makes your hit do headshot damage, full talent is now:
    • While your pistol is holstered, gain a stacking buff every 0.3s, up to 100. When you swap to it, your first shot consumes the buff and deals +10% damage per stack.
    • (New) This deals headshot damage to anywhere you hit.
 
BTSU Datagloves
  • Changed functionality to no longer grant group/raid-wide overcharge unless you are skill tier 6
  • Added functionality to provide hive skill haste, full talent is now:
    • (New) Grants +15% Hive skill haste per skill tier.
    • (Changed) Detonating a hive refreshes your skill cooldowns and grants overcharge for 15s.If at Skill Tier 6, this effect also applies to all allies.
    • Allies receiving this effect are unable to benefit from it again for 120s.
 
Sawyer's Kneeguards
  • Added functionality to continue to provide damage bonus move for a short duration, full talent is now:
    • Cannot be staggered by explosions.
    • Increases total weapon damage by 3% each second you are not moving. Stacks up to 10 until you start moving.
    • (New) All stacks lost 10s after moving.
 

Gear Set Changes

Hard Wired
  • Feedback Loop no longer fully refreshes the cooldown of a skill, but instead reduces it by up to 30s
 
Ongoing Directive
  • Main Talent
    • Hollow-Point Ammo is no longer dropped on kill, and instead automatically added to your active weapon when killing status afflicted enemies
    • Backpack Talent (New)
  • “Trauma Specialist”
    • Increases the duration of your bleed status effects by 50% and all bleed damage done by 100%
    • Increased 3-piece Reload Speed bonus from +20% to +30%
 
Tip of the Spear
  • Main Talent (PVE)
    • Aggressive Recon's weapon damage buff is now gained when dealing specialization weapon damage, instead of on specialization weapon kill
  • Main Talent (PVP)
    • Aggressive Recon's weapon damage buff is now gained when dealing grenade damage, instead of on grenade kill
  • Backpack Talent (New)
    • “Signature Moves”
    • Increases specialization weapon damage by 20%, and doubles the amount of specialization ammo generated by Aggressive Recon
 
Aces and Eights
  • Main Talent
    • "Poker Face" backpack talent is now a baseline effect:
    • Flip an additional card on headshots
  • Backpack Talent (New)
    • “Ace in the Sleeve”
    • Amplifies 1 extra shot when revealing your hand
    • 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus is now additive, rather than multiplicative
    • Increased 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +20% to +30%
 
System Corruption
  • Main Talent
    • Now repairs 20% of your armor in addition to granting 50% bonus armor
    • Increases total weapon damage by 1% per 5% bonus armor gained, up to 20%
 
Striker’s Battlegear
  • Main Talent
    • Reduced the number of stacks lost on missed shots from 3 to 2
  • Backpack Talent
    • No longer reduces number of stacks lost on missed shots
    • (New) Increases total weapon damage gained per stack of Striker's Gamble from 0.5% to 0.65%.
 
Negotiators Dilemma
  • Damage transfers on the initial bullet that marks a new target
 
Hard Wired
  • Increased 3-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +30%
 
Brand Set Changes Alps Summit Armament
  • Increased 1-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20%
 
Murakami Industries
  • Increased 2-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20%
 
Richter & Kaiser
  • Increased 3-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20%
  • Incoming Repairs brand set bonus increased from +15% to +20%
 
Providence Defense
  • Increased 1-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15%
 
Airaldi Holdings
  • Increased 2-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15%
 
Grupo Sombra S.A
  • Increased 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15%
 
Overlord Armaments
  • Increased 2-piece Accuracy bonus from +10% to +20%
 
Douglas & Harding
  • Increased 2-piece Stability bonus from +10% to +20%
  • Increased 3-piece Accuracy bonus from +10% to +20%
 
Fenris Group AB
  • Increased 2-piece Reload Speed bonus from +10% to +20%
  • Increased 3-piece Stability bonus from +10% to +20%
 

Specialization Changes

  • Gunner specialization's Emplacement talent Weapon Handling bonus reduced from +15% to +10%
    • Note: The UI will incorrectly say it still adds +15% Weapon Handling. This will be fixed in a future update.
 

Skill Changes

UI
  • Stinger Hive, Mortar Turret, and Explosive Seeker Mine now display its Bleed Damage and Duration
 
Seeker Mine
  • Cluster Seeker Mine targeting accuracy improved
Developer comment: The Cluster Seeker Mine is not intended to be as accurate as the Explosive variant. Once it is a certain distance from its target it locks the location it is aiming for and continues towards that regardless of where its original target agent has since moved to. This "bullcharge" behavior reflects the mini-mines' less advanced technology and balances the skill mod's effectiveness. This said, we have noticed that the Cluster Seeker's accuracy has been a source of frustration so we've shortened the distance until it activates its "bullcharge" and adjusted when it decides to explode. These adjustments should make the Cluster Seeker feel more accurate, but these are measured steps as we do not want the skill to return to its OP TU7-state.
 
Hive
  • Stinger Hive base damage reduced -20%
  • Stinger Hive damage bonus per skill tier increased from +10% to +20%
Developer comment: In order to make investing in skill tiers have a greater impact on the Stinger Hive's damage, we slightly reduced base drone damage, while doubling the amount of damage gained with each skill tier. These changes will result in a net buff for dedicated skill builds, with a 10% increase in Stinger Hive drone damage at skill tier 6.
  • Restorer hive gains +5% drone flight speed per skill tier
Developer comment: Increases to the Restorer Hive's radius had the unfortunate effect of increasing the time it took for repair drones to reach their target the further they were from the hive. Increasing drone flight speed with each skill tier should help offset that somewhat counter-intuitive behavior when taking advantage of the increased area of effect, and make the Restorer Hive a more reliable tool for healers.
 
Chem Launcher
  • Riot Foam Chem Launcher ensnare duration bonus per skill tier reduced from +20% to +10%
  • Reinforcer Chem Launcher: UI has been updated to clarify that the initial heal only affects allies and not the Skill user. The functionality has not changed.
 
Firefly
  • Blinder Firefly blind duration bonus per skill tier reduced from +20% to +10%
  • Blinder Firefly base blind duration reduced from 6s to 5s
 
Pulse
  • Banshee Pulse cooldown increased from 20s to 30s
  • Banshee Pulse base confuse duration reduced from 5s to 4s
  • Jammer Pulse base disrupt duration reduced from 4s to 3s
 
Shock Trap
  • Shock Trap base shock duration reduced from 5s to 3s (PvP duration remains unchanged)
  • Shock Trap base radius increased from 2m to 2.5m
  • When the active duration ends, its cooldown is refunded an equal number of seconds that it was active.
 

Further Bugfixes:

=> Source
submitted by JokerUnique to thedivision [link] [comments]

SNAP preview, expected move and spread strike selection

SNAP preview, expected move and spread strike selection
  • Snap (SNAP) reports q2 earnings after the close Tuesday (~4:10pm)
  • Options are pricing an expected move of 12% by this Friday. That is the bulk of the move expected over the next month, which is about 15%.
  • Snap closed higher by about 36% in the day following its most recent earnings (in April)
  • Snap has beaten consensus estimates 7 out of the last 8 times.

https://preview.redd.it/d5e4r4ho28c51.png?width=583&format=png&auto=webp&s=9790a1e378ed329c5d66910d814093260814f70d
Neutral - The first thing to look at is a neutral position, selling to both the bulls and the bears. Here are two neutral trades setting breakevens at or near the expected move. First selling the +21.5/-22.5/-28/+29 Iron Condor (condor chart)
In this case the risk reward is $56 to make $44. If the stock closes anywhere between 22.5 and 28 on Friday it is a max gain. Any close beyond 21.5 or 29 and a max loss. The breakeven is 22.06 on the downside and 28.44 on the upside.
That trade establishes a range of max profit, for those targeting no move at all, with the stock remaining at 25 selling an Iron Butterfly has max profit at the 25 level with profits trailing off towards the expected move and losses beyond: Fly chart
Both of these trades are binary, isolating this week and what is likely to be a mostly one day move tomorrow.
Bullish - For those thinking directionally the expected move can be used to help determine strike selection. Here's a bullish price target looking out a bit further in time, to August expiration: Trade comparison.
In this case both the August long call spread (+25/-29) and the August short put spread (-25/+21) take advantage of multi leg strike selection based on the expected move. The short put spread is "selling to the bears" and is profitable from 22.57 and higher with a max gain if the stock is above 25 on August expiration. The long call spread has a higher breakeven, but by selling the 29 call at a high upside volatility, is much cheaper than an outright 25 call.
Bearish - The same is true for a bearish target in line with the expected move but the short call spread is at a slight disadvantage due to having to buy the upside call at a similar or higher IV than the at the money call sale: Trade comparison
Full post here.
submitted by cclagator to options [link] [comments]

Experiencing different RPGs makes you better at D&D

5e is considered a very homebrew-friendly RPG, and so 5e subreddits tend to be full of homebrew and DMs spreading their game design ideas. And that's great! The fact that every DM is also a game designer is a big part of what makes D&D so much fun.
But...
A lot of y'all have never played another TTRPG and it shows. Hey, it can be hard to get a table together for D&D, playing something more niche is even harder. But in the same way that you can't be a great writer if you don't read anything, it's really hard to be a good game designer and homebrewer without running other game systems. And I do mean running them. DM a one shot, or a couple of sessions, or at least play in a game. Reading the system won't do it; systems reveal their value through use.
I have never played a new TTRPG and not picked up something that makes me a better DM and homebrewer. Playing with homebrew in 5e can help you learn, but those rules always have to be built on top of 5e's assumptions and play style. Playing other games gives you a chance to see mechanics without those assumptions, and what they can bring to the table.
A lot of these won't translate back, and that's fine. Sometimes the value of this is to show you why not to homebrew something. Playing The One Ring will show you how building a game from the ground up around concepts of encumbrance, fatigue, and attrition can lead to really engaging and mechanically interesting travel. That might also show you how much you would have to change and remove in 5e to reach that same point and not to bother. Some mechanics can easily be borrowed, though. I'll never run a D&D heist again without borrowing the flashback system from Blades in the Dark.
Often times I'll hear people make the argument that since D&D has a universal skill resolution mechanic, it can handle everything. This is somewhat true, but systems matter. We don't resolve combat by saying, "roll a fighting check" and having the players win on a success vs the DC. Players will plan around and engage with the mechanics that exist, and character abilities provide hooks into the mechanics that exist.
I'd love to hear from DMs who have played other systems what they think is worth learning from them, but in short here are some recommendations to other DMs.
If you want travel to be interesting, try playing The One Ring.
If you want dungeon crawling to be tense and mechanical, try out Torchbearer. Also, for something that does this while also borrowing 5e mechanics, try 5 Torches Deep.
If you're a big believer in the Rule of Cool, try out Feng Shui 2, which is built entirely around combat looking as cool as possible.
If you think combat is first and foremost about narrative, try playing Masks where getting hit in combat is primarily mechanically about how that makes your character feel.
If you're a big advocate of "not all encounters are combat encounters", look to try a system that provides the same ease of creation, robustness, and variety of options for non-combat challenges that the Monster Manual provides for combat. Recently Pathfinder 2e's complex hazards are a decent starting point, but hopefully other DMs can recommend something even better.
If you like running mysteries, try playing a Gumshoe-based system that does investigation based on the assumption the players always find clues, the game comes from interpreting them.
If you're of the belief that D&D is first and foremost about collaborative storytelling, try playing a game that expresses that in gameplay, like Burning Wheel.
If you love big character backstories, play a game where those backstories have more mechanical weight like 13th Age.
If you like degrees of success, or hate binary saving throws, check out Pathfinder 2e to see what D&D is like when that's built into everything.
If you care a lot about failing forward, try a game with "success with complications" built centrally into the rules. Anything PbtA is a good start.
If you want to try out what roleplay looks like with social mechanics, try out Burning Wheel or L5R. It'll change how you look at high stakes conversations.
Obviously you don't have to play all of these. You don't have to play any of them! But if you want to make sweeping statements about design and you've only played D&D, maybe approach the subject with a bit of humility. I see a lot of people make broad declarations about things that just aren't fun or never work or that they say 5e already does well, who clearly haven't ever played a game designed to do that thing. Or disparaging DMs who struggle with engaging players in places where 5e doesn't provide any system. Or acting like 5e can do everything because you can graft rules onto it, without any appreciation for the difference between something strapped on to an existing game and something that a game is built to do.
RPG systems reflect the work of a lot of clever game designers and (in some cases, at least) testing effort. Playing different games can help you work past assumptions about how RPGs work and experience the ways game systems can really capture a feeling or experience. And even if you don't make that your next campaign, you'll come back to D&D a better DM for the new perspective.
submitted by gammon9 to dndnext [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020

Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.

Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)

The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth.
The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs.
“If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states.
Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains.
“I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%.
“I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California.
“Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.”
Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.

Election ahead

In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising.
Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China.
“If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.”
Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half.
Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.

Stimulus

The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses.
“So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins.
Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses.
The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%.
As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program.
“The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing.
“There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

When Will The Economy Recover?

The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone.
“As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.”
Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.

Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight

The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Share Price Performance

The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq 2% Pullbacks From Record Highs

It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017.
In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Christmas in July: NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally

In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years

As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end.
In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 26th, 2020

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.28.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $GIS
  • $FDX
  • $CAG
  • $STZ
  • $CPRI
  • $XYF
  • $AYI
  • $MEI
  • $UNF
  • $CDMO
  • $SCHN
  • $LNN
  • $CULP
  • $XELA
  • $KFY
  • $RTIX
  • $JRSH
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Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.29.20 Before Market Open:

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NONE.

Monday 6.29.20 After Market Close:

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Tuesday 6.30.20 Before Market Open:

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Tuesday 6.30.20 After Market Close:

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Wednesday 7.1.20 Before Market Open:

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Wednesday 7.1.20 After Market Close:

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NONE.

Thursday 7.2.20 Before Market Open:

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Thursday 7.2.20 After Market Close:

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NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:

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NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 After Market Close:

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NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

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General Mills, Inc. $59.21

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

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FedEx Corp. $130.08

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

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Conagra Brands, Inc. $32.64

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.

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Constellation Brands, Inc. $168.99

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.

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Capri Holdings Limited $14.37

Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

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X Financial $0.92

X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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Acuity Brands, Inc. $84.45

Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

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Methode Electronics, Inc. $30.02

Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

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UniFirst Corporation $170.54

UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

2 months back at trading (update) and some new questions

Hi all, I posted a thread back a few months ago when I started getting seriously back into trading after 20 years away. I thought I'd post an update with some notes on how I'm progressing. I like to type, so settle in. Maybe it'll help new traders who are exactly where I was 2 months ago, I dunno. Or maybe you'll wonder why you spent 3 minutes reading this. Risk/reward, yo.
I'm trading 5k on TastyWorks. I'm a newcomer to theta positive strategies and have done about two thirds of my overall trades in this style. However, most of my experience in trading in the past has been intraday timeframe oriented chart reading and momentum stuff. I learned almost everything "new" that I'm doing from TastyTrade, /options, /thetagang, and Option Alpha. I've enjoyed the material coming from esinvests YouTube channel quite a bit as well. The theta gang type strategies I've done have been almost entirely around binary event IV contraction (mostly earnings, but not always) and in most cases, capped to about $250 in risk per position.
The raw numbers:
Net PnL : +247
Commissions paid: -155
Fees: -42
Right away what jumps out is something that was indicated by realdeal43 and PapaCharlie9 in my previous thread. This is a tough, grindy way to trade a small account. It reminds me a little bit of when I was rising through the stakes in online poker, playing $2/4 limit holdem. Even if you're a profitable player in that game, beating the rake over the long term is very, very hard. Here, over 3 months of trading a conservative style with mostly defined risk strategies, my commissions are roughly equal to my net PnL. That is just insane, and I don't even think I've been overtrading.
55 trades total, win rate of 60%
22 neutral / other trades
Biggest wins:
Biggest losses:
This is pretty much where I expected to be while learning a bunch of new trading techniques. And no, this is not a large sample size so I have no idea whether or not I can be profitable trading this way (yet). I am heartened by the fact that I seem to be hitting my earnings trades and selling quick spikes in IV (like weed cures Corona day). I'm disheartened that I've went against my principles several times, holding trades for longer than I originally intended, or letting losses mount, believing that I could roll or manage my way out of trouble.
I still feel like I am going against my nature to some degree. My trading in years past was scalping oriented and simple. I was taught that a good trade was right almost immediately. If it went against me, I'd cut it immediately and look for a better entry. This is absolutely nothing like that. A good trade may take weeks to develop. It's been really hard for me to sit through the troughs and it's been even harder to watch an okay profit get taken out by a big swing in delta. Part of me wonders if I am cut out for this style at all and if I shouldn't just take my 5k and start trading micro futures. But that's a different post...
I'll share a couple of my meager learnings:


My new questions :

That's enough of this wall of text for now. If you made it this far, I salute you, because this shit was even longer than my last post.
submitted by bogglor to options [link] [comments]

Subreddit Survey Results

Greetings, exchristian!
The subreddit survey closed on 10 June. Since then, I have been combing through the results, and pulling everything together to publish here. 805 of you responded, which is a small proportion of our 66k members, but probably a good portion of the subscribers who are actually active on the subreddit, and not bad for a first try. I appreciate every one of you who took the time to fill out the survey, who contributed questions, and who provided feedback in the comments of the original post. All advice has been taken on board, and if I do this again in the future, I will change the survey accordingly. But you're here for the stats, so let's get into them!

Part 1: Demographics

Q1: What age group are you in?

Age Number of Responses Percentage
10 or under 0 0%
11-15 40 5%
16-19 136 16.9%
20-24 206 25.7%
25-29 182 22.7%
30-34 121 15.1%
35-39 56 7%
40-44 21 2.6%
45-50 13 1.6%
50+ 28 3.5%
exchristian mostly aligns with Reddit's user base in the age question, with most respondents in the 16-35 range. There are some under 16, which may just be normal for Reddit, but could also be people seeking support with living as a non-Christian in a Christian home in an already difficult part of their lives. Overall, though, this question throws up no surprises.

Q2: What Denomination(s) were you part of?

Denomination Number of Responses Percentage
Non-Denominational 250 31.2%
Baptist 231 28.8%
Catholic 119 14.9%
Other Evangelical 98 12.2%
Pentecostal 97 12.1%
Calvinist/Presbyterian/ Reformed 82 10.2%
Lutheran 47 5.9%
Methodist 39 4.9%
Anglican/Episcopalian 34 4.2%
Church of Christ 31 3.9%
Orthodox 20 2.5%
Seventh-Day Adventist 14 1.9%
Mormon 10 1.2%
Anabaptist (Amish/Mennonite) 8 1%
Plymouth Brethren 7 0.8%
Jehovah's Witnesses 2 0.2%
Other 61 6.1%
A lot of denominations came up here, and I mean a lot. The largest groups are Baptist and non-denominational, which probably reflects the US-centric nature of the subreddit, which we will see in the next question. The sub also leans ex-Protestant, with only 14.9% ex-Catholics and 2.5% ex-Orthodox. The quantity and variety of the self-filled answers made it easier to just group them under 'Other'. A substantial portion of those answers came from offshoots of Methodism, notably the Nazarene (6 responses) and Wesleyan (4) groups. Others included IFB (4), and Assemblies of God (4 - one of a number of Pentecostal-ish groups represented in those answers).
A few peripheral thoughts on this question: I was surprised by the lack of JWs in the sub, but they probably gravitate towards exJW rather than the umbrella sub here, with the same theme applying to the slightly larger Mormon group. I am also intrigued by our Amish/Mennonite contingent. If any of you would be willing to share your experiences with those groups, I'd be very interested to hear.

Q3: Where do you live?

Location Number of Responses Percentage
United States South 220 27.5%
United States Midwest 169 21.1%
United States West 132 16.4%
United States Northeast 93 11.6%
Canada 56 7%
United Kingdom 28 3.5%
Australia 20 2.5%
New Zealand 6 0.7%
Singapore 6 0.7%
The Netherlands 6 0.7%
Germany 5 0.6%
South Africa 5 0.6%
Brazil 3 0.4%
Ireland 3 0.4%
Malaysia 3 0.4%
Romania 3 0.4%
The Philippines 3 0.4%
Czech Republic/Czechia 2 0.3%
Dominican Republic 2 0.3%
France 2 0.3%
Italy 2 0.3%
Mexico 2 0.3%
Norway 2 0.3%
Poland 2 0.3%
In addition to these, there was 1 answer each for: Alaska, 'American living abroad', Austria, China, Denmark, Dominica, Ecuador, Finland, Georgia, Ghana, Greece, Hong Kong, India, 'Jamaica/UAE', Japan, Latvia, Nagaland, Namibia, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Portugal, The Caribbean, The Nordics, 'USA and Philippines', and Zambia.
The overall picture here is that this sub is overwhelmingly American. 77% of you live in some part of the United States, with another 7% from Canada adding to the North American group. Unsurprisingly, most are from English-speaking countries, although there are more from continental Europe than I expected. By location, we are spread far and wide, but it will surprise nobody who has spent any time on this subreddit that a vast majority of users are American.

Q4: What is your ethnicity?

Ethnicity Number of Responses Percentage
White/Caucasian 643 80.3%
Asian 55 6.9%
Black/African-American 40 5%
Latino/Hispanic 33 4.1%
Mixed Race 20 2.5%
Indigenous North American 5 0.6%
Pacific Islander 2 0.3%
Indigenous Australian 1 0.1%
North African 1 0.1%
I received some criticism for this question, which was fair. It was poorly thought out and poorly worded. If nothing else, I should have made Mixed Race an option to be picked and not left that to the 'Other' field - a very embarrassing oversight. But the results do tell us something. The main thing they tell us is that our subreddit is overwhelmingly white, which also correlates with earlier answers which show American ex-Evangelicals as by far the largest group. I don't know exactly why ethnic minorities are so poorly represented here - my best guess is that it is a reflection of Reddit demographics generally. If others have insights on this, I'd be interested to hear them.

Q5: What gender do you identify as?

Gender Number of Responses Percentage
Male 404 50.3%
Female 341 42.5%
Non-Binary 41 5.1%
Prefer not to say 12 1.5%
Genderfluid 2 0.2%
Agender 1 0.1%
Transmale 1 0.1%
These were interesting answers. A quick google search tells me that Reddit overall is over 70% male. But in exchristian, while a small majority of users are men, over 40% are women. As a man, I may be pontificating about something I don't understand, but I wonder if this is connected to the sexism inherent in much of Christianity and Christian teaching. Women may be more likely to leave Christianity than men, because they are more likely to feel unwelcome in a sexist environment. The 5%+ operating outside of the traditional genders may be feeling a similar thing. Trans, Non-Binary, and Genderfluid people probably struggle to find a place in Christianity and Christian doctrine unless they suppress their authentic self. Again, I may be talking out of my arse here, and those with actual experience of this can hopefully provide more insights in the comments.

Q6: What best describes your sexual orientation?

Sexuality Number of Responses Percentage
Heterosexual 469 58.7%
Bisexual 185 23.1%
Homosexual 67 8.4%
Asexual 44 5.5%
Pansexual 15 1.9%
Demisexual 3 0.4%
Queer 3 0.4%
Other 13 1.6%
Of the 'Other' group, most expressed some measure of confusion, with 2 particularly mentioning purity culture as a factor in that. Single answers included Gynesexual, Panromantic, and Sapphic Asexual.
I think we are seeing a similar phenomenon here as with the last question. The larger than average LGBTQ+ representation might be a demographic feature, but it could also be because a lot of Christian doctrine is extremely homophobic, and LGBTQ+ people probably feel unwelcome in Christianity, and have more reason than heterosexuals to doubt aspects of Christian teaching. Again, though, I would welcome further insights from LGBTQ+ people on this issue.

Q7: Which of these options best describes your political opinions?

Political Position Number of Responses Percentage
Left/Liberal 544 68.4%
Centrist/Moderate 225 28.3%
Right/Conservative 26 3.3%
The framing of that question was slightly over-simplified, but it's not a surprise to see that very few people here see themselves as right-wing or conservative politically, both given Reddit's demographics, and given the closeness of large sections of Christianity (especially in the US) with right-wing and socially conservative politics.

Part 2: Education

Q8: What is your current level of education?

Education Level Number of Responses Percentage
College/University Graduate 395 49.2%
Currently at College/University 180 22.4%
Currently in School 110 13.7%
High School Graduate 94 11.7%
PhD/Professorship 20 2.5%
No Formal Qualifications 4 0.5%
A majority of us are either in College/University, or are Graduates. That, again, may just reflect Reddit's demographics, but it is no coincidence that the more someone learns, the less likely they are to remain religious. I have certainly found that in my own experience.

Q9: What type of school were you educated in?

School Number of Responses Percentage
Public/State School 605 75.3%
Religious School 286 35.6%
I was Home-Schooled 122 15.2%
Secular Private School 61 7.6%


Q10: If you went to a religious school, do you believe it contributed towards your deconversion?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 197 38.2%
No 190 38.6%
Not Sure 129 25%

Q11: If you went to a secular school, do you believe it contributed towards your deconversion?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 247 37%
No 290 43.5%
Not Sure 130 19.5%
The answers to Q10 could be unreliable, as more people answered it than answered 'Religious School' to Q9. But it does show that a reasonable percentage of both people who went to religious schools and to secular schools felt that that contributed towards their deconversions. Those will probably be for different reasons, and I think school experiences would be an interesting thing to dig further in to, either in the comments here or in a separate post.

Part 3: Beliefs and Deconversion Experience

Q12: At what age did you stop being a christian?

Age Number of Responses Percentage
10 or under 15 1.9%
11-15 139 17.3%
16-19 211 26.3%
20-24 224 27.9%
25-29 122 15.2%
30-34 54 6.7%
35-39 15 1.9%
40-44 6 0.7%
45-49 10 1.2%
50+ 6 0.7%
Most of us lost our belief between the ages of 16 and 25, and I don't think that's a coincidence. It's the time when you're beginning to strike out on your own in the world, forge your own path, and cast off your parents' preconceptions. It's also the time when you start to think more critically about things, and for many of us thinking critically about Christianity was what drove us to leave it.

Q13: How would you describe your current belief system?

Belief Number of Responses Percentage
Atheist 317 39.7%
Agnostic 238 29.9%
Anti-theist 47 5.9%
Humanist 45 5.6%
Apatheist 26 3.3%
Pagan/Wiccan 17 2.1%
Deist 15 1.9%
Pantheist 13 1.6%
Buddhist 11 1.4%
Unsure 10 1.2%
Agnostic Atheist 6 0.7%
Ignostic 5 0.6%
Satanist 5 0.6%
Spiritual 5 0.6%
Misotheist 3 0.4%
Universalist 2 0.3%
Other 32 4%
Most of the 'Other' answers represented mixed philosophies - a few people have pointed out to me that I should have made this question multiple choice. Single answers included Hindu, Ietsist, Irreligious, Jewish, Left Hand Path, Longhouse Religion, Muslim, Nihilist, Occultist, Panendeist, and Panentheist.
It won't surprise any of us to see that this subreddit is mostly Atheist/Agnostic. However, there are some more spiritually-minded people here, and although they are not a large group they are a noticeable segment.

Q14: If you do not consider yourself an Atheist/Agnostic/etc, how free do you feel to discuss your spiritual views in exchristian?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
1 (Not at all Free) 5 1.4%
2 23 6.4%
3 87 24.2%
4 69 19.2%
5 (Completely Free) 176 48.9%
This seems to have faced a similar problem to Q10, in that many people answered it who should not have. They represent all but one of the '1' answers, and fairly even portions of the others. The answers of spiritually-minded people seem to come out at around the same proportionally as the overall responses. Reassuringly, that means that most do feel free to share their views here, although it also means that there is a minority who do not. While I cannot speak for that minority, one of the answers to the previous question provided a small paragraph on it (side note: try not to do this in surveys, folks. Short and to the point is best). That person said "I don't like to talk about this openly on the sub because I feel like people will see me as spacey and illogical, but that might be because I watch too many hardcore Youtube skeptics".
I think that answer makes sense as a reason some people don't feel entirely free to share their views here. This sub clearly has an atheist majority, and the stereotype of atheists is that we are hostile to any and all spiritual beliefs. It's not a problem with the subreddit, which I've always found to be extremely friendly and open, but one of perception and self-consciousness. But as always, if you feel like I'm grasping at the wrong end of the stick here, feel free to say so - in PMs if you don't want to do it publicly.
Following on from all of that, I'd genuinely be interested to hear more about the beliefs of our more spiritual members - the more niche the better. I'm not that way inclined myself, but the previous question has sparked an academic curiosity.

Q15: Are you 'out of the closet' as an ex-christian?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes, to everyone I know 79 9.9%
Yes, to most people I know 203 25.3%
Yes, to some people I know 387 48.3%
No 133 16.6%
Very few of us have told everyone in our lives that we're no longer christian, but most of us have told at least some people. I imagine that that mostly manifests as people keeping it a secret from family or church friends, or a christian workplace, but being open about it among non-church friends or in a secular workplace.

Q16: If you are 'out of the closet', do your christian family and/or friends accept your decision?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 113 18.9%
No 152 25.4%
Some 333 55.7%
Less than 20% of people's christian circles fully accept them leaving christianity. Christians hate apostates, what a surprise! That a majority have had at least some acceptance is good to see, though, and I am glad for those of you who have experienced that.

Q17: If you are not 'out of the closet', do you plan to come out in the near future?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 86 16.3%
No 163 30.9%
Not Sure 279 52.8%
Most closet-dwellers are unsure if they'll come out or not, with a fairly large minority having decided to keep it a secret, at least for now. A majority for the undecideds is not a surprise. It's a very difficult decision, and you have to weigh up your freedom with the damage you might do to your personal relationships. Not an easy choice.

Q18: Are there any non-christians or ex-christians in your immediate or extended family?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 425 53.3%
No 373 46.7%

Q19: Outside of your family, do you know any ex-christians in your real life?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 505 63.1%
No 295 36.9%

Q20: Do you live in a place where you feel socially at risk if you admit you are no longer a christian?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 158 19.8%
No 258 32.3%
Sometimes (i.e. among family but not among colleagues) 384 48%

Q21: If you do feel socially at risk, how important has exchristian been in giving you a safe space to speak freely?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
1 (Not at all important) 22 3.7%
2 34 5.7%
3 137 23%
4 202 33.9%
5 (Very Important) 200 33.6%
This group of questions shows quite a stark difference. While a majority of us do have other non-christians or ex-christians in our lives, a substantial minority seem to be surrounded by christians, most of them probably in the American south where, from what I read on this subreddit, Christianity is everywhere. That makes exchristian very important as a support subreddit, which I've seen others say here and have felt myself. This community is a very important resource for many people.

Q22: When you were a christian, did you participate in church community activities (i.e. youth groups)?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 716 89.3%
No 86 10.7%

Q23: Do you miss christianity's sense of community?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 257 32.1%
No 420 52.4%
Not Sure 124 15.5%

Q24: Do you feel isolated since deconverting?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Frequently 109 13.7%
Sometimes 287 36.1%
I have in the past 200 25.1%
Never 200 25.1%

Q25: If you have felt isolated, has exchristian helped to reduce that isolation?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 450 70.1%
No 51 7.9%
Not Sure 141 22%

Q26: Outside of exchristian, have you found anything in a secular space to replace the church community?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 353 45.1%
No 429 54.9%

Q27: On the whole, how important has the exchristian community been in helping you through your deconversion?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
1 (Not at all Important) 104 13.8%
2 96 12.8%
3 189 25.2%
4 189 25.2%
5 (Very Important) 173 23%
This is another group of questions which really show how important this community is. Most of us were quite involved in our churches, and although most say they do not miss christianity, a majority have felt isolated at some point, and a large majority of those say exchristian was important to reducing that isolation. The answers to question 27 reflect that again. I think it's really important that this sub exists to help alleviate some of these problems.

Q28: Do you experience rapture and/or tribulation anxiety?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Frequently 59 7.4%
Sometimes 147 18.4%
I have in the past 270 33.8%
Never 322 40.4%
A majority of us have, at some point, experienced rapture or tribulation anxiety. That's hardly surprising, given how strong the 'left behind' motif is in christian preaching and culture. More encouragingly, a majority of those who have experienced this say that they do not experience it now. As someone who has suffered from this in the past, I can reassure you that it does get better. The more distance you put between yourself and your christian past, the easier it becomes to move past that anxiety.

Q29: Have you been diagnosed with a mental illness or illnesses?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 348 43.6%
No 451 56.4%

Q30: Do you believe that christianity has had a negative impact on your mental health?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Yes 667 83.3%
No 58 7.2%
Not Sure 76 9.5%
While a majority of us have not received an official mental health diagnosis, a substantial minority have, a testament to how much of a toll christianity and the process of tearing yourself away from it takes on your mental health. An overwhelming majority also think that it has had a negative impact on their mental health, which will surprise nobody who has spent any time reading the posts on this sub.

Q31: On the whole, has your loss of belief made your life easier or more difficult, or has it had no impact?

Answer Number of Responses Percentage
Easier 481 60%
More Difficult 105 13.1%
No Impact 54 6.7%
Not Sure 161 20.1%
I have realised since writing the survey that this question was too simplistic and doesn't reflect the variety of people's experiences. Nevertheless, a clear majority do consider their deconversion to have made their life easier, and in the light of the mental health questions that is hardly surprising.

Conclusion/TL;DR
So, what has this survey told us? In demographics, a clear majority in this subreddit are white American protestants, with most between the ages of 16 and 35. In both gender and sexuality, it is more diverse than reddit overall, and most are well-educated. A clear majority are either atheist or agnostic, but there is a diverse (if small) group holding alternative beliefs. With most of us only halfway 'out' as ex-christians and with a clear majority identifying christianity as causing mental health troubles, the survey also shows the importance of exchristian as a place on the internet where people in our situation can come together and share experiences. I'm grateful to all of you for being here and for making this sub the place that it is.
And that's a wrap. Well done for making it this far, I guess, and thanks to all of you who responded to the survey. Pulling the data together for this post has been intense, but fun in its own way, and I have enjoyed finding out a bit more about who we are as a community. As I've said throughout, comments, questions, and criticism are all welcome if you have any to share, and I'm very interested to see what the community thinks of the data.
submitted by acuriousoddity to exchristian [link] [comments]

Bisexual vs pansexual--a brief history

I've seen a few posts lately talking about friction between people who ID as "pansexual" and people who ID as "bisexual." Mostly people who are fairly young, who haven't yet developed a broader, historical view of how these terms have come to the spot they're at right now. I feel like a big chunk of the friction could be resolved if people had a better sense of where these terms came from and how they developed. Since I lived through a good chunk of it, I thought it might be helpful to share.
Caveat: I'm going to be talking about my recollections here. Other people around at the time might remember things somewhat differently, although we'll probably agree about the broad contours. This isn't a piece of serious historiography. It's just a Reddit post with my memory of what happened.
To set the stage, we need to start with some stuff I didn't live through, but was able to piece together from the writings of people who did.

The 90s

First, the term "bisexual" has never really sat easily with the bisexual community, such as it has existed, at large. It implies a binary that a lot of us have never felt. Had we been given the option to put it up to a vote of our peers at the beginning, we probably would have picked a different term. Instead, medical professionals--operating under what turned out to be a completely incorrect theory of sexual orientation--picked it for us and imposed it on bisexual people.
So as bisexual activism and community organizing got going in a more widespread serious way in the 90s, it was natural that when people got together, they started talking about other terms that we might be able to replace it with. Most of these terms didn't really take off. Who's ever heard of someone identifying as "pomosexual?" But one started to get a little traction: "pansexual."
My understanding is that, at the time, the people pushing for this term wanted to replace the word "bisexual" entirely.
But it would have been like herding cats trying to get everyone on board. And spreading awareness of the term "pansexual" to the mainstream was virtually impossible. Bisexual people didn't really have much of a voice. Movies and TV shows either didn't show bisexual characters, or deliberately went out of their way to erase their existence. There weren't very many openly bi people with a platform--just a few rock stars and actors that people didn't really take seriously outside of their work.

The 2000s

That changed with the rise of the internet. Internet usage wasn't exactly unknown by the year 2000. Something like 50% of the population already had access to it. But the internet was a much more passive place in the 90s. In order to set up a website, you had to spend some time learning HTML and program everything yourself--or pay someone to do it for you. And once you had a website, there was no guarantee that anyone would come and look at it. Marketing and spreading awareness of your website wasn't feasible.
That changed in the mid-2000s with the rise of blogging platforms like Xanga and Livejournal, which started really taking off in the mid-2000s, only to be devoured by Tumblr when it started getting popular around 2008 or so. Suddenly, you didn't need to learn any HTML or other form of code in order to post on the internet. You just made an account on a site and started writing. And since other people were on the same site writing, you had a built-in audience.
For the very first time, bisexual individuals--not just activists--were able to reach out to each other across the world and have a conversation. And thus began The Discourse.

Gender stuff

Around this time is where I come in. I was in college in the 2000s and had a lot of LGBT friends. While I didn't feel comfortable identifying as bisexual until 2009, I was certainly aware that I wasn't entirely straight. So I became aware of the state of the discussion sometime around 2007-2008, and really dug into it a couple years after that.
At that time, "pansexual" and "bisexual" were frequently considered rival terms describing the same community of people. There was a split going on in the bi community online as people wrestled with what the correct way to identify ourselves would be.
A large portion of the discussion was driven by the new awareness--again, driven by people finally being able to reach each other and find community over the internet--of the diversity of gender identity and orientation. Non-binary and trans people were all over in The Discourse. "Pansexual" came to be seen in some quarters as a great way to identify the community while recognizing and honoring that diversity.
There were lots of pixels spilled in arguments back and forth about these terms. There were good arguments on both sides, and lots of dumb arguments on both sides. While I definitely had a side, I want to make it clear that it was something that reasonable people could disagree about. But there were a lot of very young people, especially teenagers, involved in the discussion. As internet discussions do, the arguments sometimes got very heated and acrimonious.
Accusations of transphobia were flung by both sides, which caused a serious split that had to be reconciled.

The 2010s, a reconciliation

By the 2010s, most of the discourse had moved to Tumblr--although there was still a lively discourse on LiveJournal. Different camps were pretty hardened to each other. I stayed out of it since it got pretty toxic from time to time. It was clear that the split in the online bisexual+ community wasn't sustainable.
But it wasn't really possible to just eliminate one of the terms. By this time, a whole lot of people had glommed onto either "bisexual" or "pansexual" as personal identity labels. Something I think most LGBT people can empathize with is how much a word can really mean. A word, a label, an identity, can really take the edge off. It shows that there are other people who feel the same way--you're part of a community. Most of us non-monosexuals spend at least a little time feeling conflicted and confused about our sexuality. How could we not, when the whole world reinforces a binary paradigm that just doesn't really work for us? A lot of young people and teenagers had found either the word "bisexual" and "pansexual," and gotten a lot of peace out of it. It was becoming clear that attacking people for adopting the "wrong" label wasn't helpful for anybody. And people started getting it through their thick heads that no one was being transphobic for identifying as "bi" or "pan."
And by now, what had started out as terms used almost exclusively online had spilled into the real world. A lot of people had come out to their friends and family as pansexual, and had no doubt spent a lot of time and energy educating others about what that term means.
That left us with a problem: how do we navigate this divide when there are two words that mean nearly the same thing? That were originally intended to describe the same community?
So a consensus started to emerge. "Bisexual" started to come to be defined as "attraction to two or more genders" or "attraction to genders similar and dissimilar to one's own," and similar constructions. While pansexual came to mean something more like "attraction to people regardless of gender."
It is immediately obvious that these definitions describe populations with a very wide overlap. People sometimes get confused as to which one they "should" identify with as a consequence. But that was intentional; it was the only way to allow separate groups with separate personal identity labels to coexist peacefully--to allow people space to identify as however they please and in whatever way brings them peace without telling them that they're wrong.

What the difference isn't

I sometimes see people say something like "bisexual people experience attraction to people differently based on gender, and pansexual people don't feel any difference in their attraction to people of different genders."
This explanation actually works backwards as an attempt to jerry-rig a reason other than online politics that the two identity labels exist. You've been able to find people who express this opinion for a while, but what it's really trying to do is take this historical divide caused by a label fight inside one community, and resolve it by making up a reason why the different labels exist. It's not the actual origin of the difference between the terms.
Nor is it something that applies broadly. There are plenty of people who identify as bisexual who don't really feel a fundamental difference in their attraction between men and women, for instance. And there are plenty of people who identify as "pansexual" who have very clear differences in how they experience attraction to people of different genders. There is a real distinction that can be made between the two, but it's not a distinction between "bisexual," as it is actually used in the real world, and "pansexual." If you hear someone say that they don't really have a gender preference, that doesn't tell you whether they identify as bi or pan.

Conclusion

I don't want anyone to take away from this account the idea that pansexuality "isn't real," and they're "really" just bisexuals in denial. People who identify as pansexual can just as easily say that "bisexual" people are just behind the times, using an old word that never really fit anyway. The words are just words. Fighting about it and policing how other people choose to identify just causes chaos and confusion.
Let people identify however they want. There are perfectly valid reasons why someone would want to identify as pansexual vs bisexual, or vice versa. Enough of a fuss has been made about it; we have bigger fish to fry.
submitted by GrogramanTheRed to bisexual [link] [comments]

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