Global Macro Economist Shares 3 Perfect Bitcoin Charts

Our COO @czhuling will join the #Binance 'Off the Charts' Live Panel

Our COO @czhuling will join the #Binance 'Off the Charts' Live Panel
Register here to view it live: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/binance-off-the-charts-virtual-conference-tickets-108855951080

Gold Sponsors: aelf, VITE, Elrond Network, Alchemy, IOST

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Binance presents the “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference, on July 14, 2020, from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM (UTC).

About this Event

On July 14, 2020, join Binance as we kick off our third anniversary with one of the biggest blockchain events of the year.
Get the latest news and updates on all things blockchain and crypto, and take an exclusive look at what’s coming next at our “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference, a blockbuster 10-hour live event with multi-regional programming that brings together 80+ influential speakers, including leading blockchain and crypto innovators, business and technology leaders, influential academics, and key policymakers.
Expect to hear the latest insights on the blockchain ecosystem from some of the industry’s most prominent leaders and visionaries. Join our can’t-miss event with powerful talks, breakthrough panels, opportunities to win prizes, and much more.
The “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference will feature five segments with spotlights on regions making a significant impact in the space: Europe & the UK, Asia-Pacific, Russia & CIS, Africa & Middle East, and North America & LATAM.
Discover an array of keynotes, panels, and fireside chats, on these following themes and more:
  • Powering Crypto Growth: Local blockchain trends and evolving technologies that are transforming crypto awareness and adoption.
  • Crypto Meets Traditional Finance: Exploring opportunities for integrated and parallel development.
  • Blockchain and Global Health: Crypto’s appeal in today’s volatile environment.
  • Policy and Regulation: Spearheading community initiatives through cooperation and investment.
  • Trading Strategies and Technical Analysis: Training and insights to improve your trading.
Hear from these speakers and more:
  • Akon - Chairman & Co-Founder, Akoin
  • Cliff Liang - Director of Solutions Architecture, Amazon
  • David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
  • Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
  • Oleksandr Bornyakov - Deputy Minister, Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine
  • Perianne Boring - Founder and President, Chamber of Digital Commerce
  • Changpeng Zhao (CZ) - Founder & CEO, Binance
  • He Yi - Co-Founder & CMO, Binance
  • Aarón Olmos - Economist, Olmos Group Venezuela
  • Alex Saunders - CEO & Founder, Nugget's News
  • Anna Baydakova - Reporter, CoinDesk
  • Anton Mozgovoy - Head of Product, Jthereum
  • Apolline Blandin - Research Lead, Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance
  • Beniamin Mincu - CEO, Elrond
  • Bobby Ong - Co-founder, CoinGecko
  • Brendan Eich - CEO & Co-founder, Brave Software
  • Bruno Diniz - Managing Partner, Spiralem Innovation Consulting
  • Calvin Liu - Strategy Lead, Compound Labs
  • Camila Russo - Founder, The Defiant
  • Carlos Rischioto - Client Technical Leader & Blockchain SME, IBM
  • Carylyne Chan - Interim CEO, CoinMarketCap
  • Catherine Coley - CEO, Binance.US
  • Charles Hayter - CEO, CryptoCompare
  • Charles Hoskinson - Founder, Cardano
  • Charlie Shrem - Host, UntoldStories.Com
  • Chimezie Chuta - Founder, Blockchain Nigeria User Group
  • Darius Sit - Partner, QCP Capital
  • David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
  • Denis Efremov - Investment Director, Da Vinci Capital
  • Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
  • Eric Turner - VP, Market Intelligence, Messari
  • Erick Pinos - Americas Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
  • Ernesto Contreras Escalona - Head of Business Development, Dash Core Group
  • Eugene Mutai - CTO, Raise
  • Genping Liu - Partner, Vertex Ventures
  • Hany Rashwan - CEO, 21Shares AG
  • Harry Halpin - CEO, Nym Technologies
  • Hongfei Da - Founder, Neo
  • Igor Runets - CEO, BitRiver
  • İsmail Hakkı Polat - Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Lecturer, Istanbul Kadir Has University
  • Jamie Burke - CEO, Outlier Ventures
  • Jiho Kang - CEO, Binance.KR
  • John Izaguirre - Europe Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
  • John Khenneth Parungao - COO, SwipeWallet, Inc.
  • Jon Karas - President & Co-Founder, Akoin
  • Jorge Farias - CEO, Cryptobuyer
  • Joseph Hung - Director of Market Strategy, Klaytn
  • Joseph Lubin - CEO, ConsenSys
  • Juan Otero - CEO, Travala.com
  • Justin Sun - Founder, TRON & CEO, BitTorrent
  • Kristina Lucrezia Cornèr - Managing Editor & Head of Features, Cointelegraph
  • Ken Nakamura - CEO, GMO-Z.com Trust Company
  • Konstantin Goldstein - Principal Technical Evangelist, Microsoft
  • Kyle Samani - Managing Director, Multicoin Capital
  • Lucas Nuzzi - Head of Network Data, Coin Metrics
  • Mai Fujimoto "Miss Bitcoin" - Founder, KIZUNA
  • Matt Marx - Co-Founder, PhishFort
  • Meltem Demirors - Chief Strategy Officer, CoinShares
  • Mengdie Wang - CEO, Odaily
  • Michael Feng - CEO, Hummingbot
  • Michael Gu - Founder, Boxmining
  • Michelle Chivunga - Founder, Global Policy House
  • Mo Dong - Co-founder, Celer Network
  • Munachi Ogueke - Chief Business Officer, YellowCard Financial
  • Naveen Surya - Chairman, Fintech Convergence Council
  • Navin Gupta - MD MENA and South East Asia, Ripple
  • Nick White - Co-founder, Harmony
  • Nischal Shetty - CEO, WazirX
  • Pang Xue Kai - CEO, Tokocrypto
  • Paul Veradittakit - Partner, Pantera Capital
  • Perianne Boring - Founder and President, Chamber of Digital Commerce
  • Patrick Dai - CEO, Qtum Chain Foundation
  • Patrick Heusser - Senior Trader, Crypto Broker AG
  • Peter DeMeo - Global Market Development Leader, IBM
  • Priscila Yazbek - Editora de Finanças, InfoMoney
  • Rachel-Rose O'Leary - Researcher, Dark Renaissance Technologies
  • Rich Teo - Co-founder & CEO Asia, Paxos
  • Richard Yan - COO, Vite Labs
  • Robert Kopitsch - Secretary General, Blockchain for Europe
  • Roei Levav - CEO, Efficient Frontier
  • Rune Christensen - Co-founder, MakerDAO
  • Sam Bankman-Fried - CEO, FTX
  • Sandeep Nailwal - COO, Matic Network
  • Sean Rolland - Director of Product, BitPay
  • Senator Ihenyen - Lead Partner, Infusion Lawyers
  • Sergej Kunz - CEO, 1inch.exchange
  • Sergey Shayakhmetov - CBDO, Sberbank Blockchain Lab
  • Shi Shawn - Co-founder, Alchemy Pay
  • Sonya Kuhnel - COO, Xago & Co-Founder, Bitcoin Events & Blockchain Academy
  • Terry Wang - Co-founder, IOST
  • Thaise Saeter - CMO, Convex Research
  • Thamim Ahmed - Researcher, University College London
  • Tom Lee - Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
  • Tyler Spalding - CEO, Flexa
  • Veronica Wong - CEO, SafePal
  • Viktor Radchenko - Founder, Trust Wallet
  • Winpro Yan - Chief Editor, Mars Finance
  • Yele Bademosi - CEO, Bundle Africa
  • Zhuling Chen - COO, Aelf Blockchain
Stay tuned as speakers and more themes are announced in the coming weeks! For more details, read our blog post here and visit our event website here.
During the livestream, we will be holding special #BinanceTurns3 activities for viewers and giving away limited-edition prizes, swag, and collectible NFTs at various points throughout the livestream. Availability is limited! Register today!
Binance Awards 2020
Join Binance as we celebrate the standout innovators and businesses that have made sizable contributions, both to our community and to our blockchain ecosystem. Winners will be announced during our live event, and results will be published on our blog afterwards.
Register on Eventbrite today and tune in to the “Off the Charts” Virtual Conference on July 14, 2020, from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM (UTC).
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Thank you to our partners for helping make this event possible!
submitted by Floris-Jan to aelfofficial [link] [comments]

The Day Advances | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - January 2020

The day advanced as if to light some work of mine
Thoreau, Walden
This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399
Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701
Secured physical gold – $17 252
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755
Bitcoin – $153 530
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477
Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under)
Global shares – 22.6%
Emerging markets shares – 2.4%
International small companies – 3.1%
Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under)
Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.5%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 6.6%
Bitcoin – 8.2%
Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month.
[Chart]
This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement.
[Chart]
As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record.
[Chart]
The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period.
Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month.
These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings.
The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio.
If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach.
There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue.
While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present.
Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio
This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio.
There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues.
Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin).
The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind.
I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging.
The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard.
The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging.
[Chart]
As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area.
There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3%
Summary
This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year.
The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked.
The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased.
Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours.
Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance.
This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking.
Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics.
During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Doing the Math on the S4E10 eCoin Transaction...

In this week's Mr Robot episode, Darlene sits on a park bench with Dom, and distributes the money she stole from the Deus Group to everybody, evenly. I timed the transaction as it happened in the show. It was 24 seconds, between her hitting return and seeing the following message on her screen: "*Transfers Complete. All Wallets Updated*" This processing time includes a message that says, "cleaning coins through crypto tumbler". It took 1 minute and 16 seconds for the transaction to tumble, process, and for the recipients to begin to get notices that they received money in their accounts.
If you have worked with bitcoin, you know that cryptocurrency does not work like this. Transferring money is a slow and sometimes expensive process, as transaction fees eat into every transaction. I know that eCoin isn't necissarily bitcoin, because it's controlled by eCorp, but it's fun to think about what happens if eCoin works like bitcoin does today...
How much money was transferred?
According to Forbes, the most wealthy people in the world are worth a combined $8.7 trillion, or $2.7 trillion. It depends on which Forbes list you are looking at. On the actual Forbes web site, they say the richest people in the world are worth $8.7 trillion, but they do not state how many of the richest people in the world are worth that much. If you look at sites like Victor Media, they publish a table of the 100 most wealthy people, and say they got the list from Forbes. They probably did purchase the list from Forbes. If I put the Victor Media list into excel, and add all the values in the net worth column, that number comes out to $2.7 trillion. So Forbes might be talking about a list that is more than the top 100 people, and sell the top 100 people list to sites like Victor Media? I don't know.
Either way, we are talking about somewhere between $2.7 and $8.7 trillion.
How many people did the money go to?
That's complicated. There was no global montage showing people celebrating all over the world (which I found a little surprising, even though I still love how this episode was shot). The only indication of a truly global transfer, to every individual in the world, is a TV screen in the airport saying that, "Global eCoin Payout... Deus group collaps