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The Dollar Is The New VIX, And The Bitcoin Connection

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The Dollar Is The New VIX, And The Bitcoin Connection

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The Dollar is the New Vix and the Bitcoin Connection

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The Dollar is the New Vix and the Bitcoin Connection

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The Dollar is the New Vix and the Bitcoin Connection

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The Dollar is the New Vix and the Bitcoin Connection

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DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
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The vix is on the move. Possibly signal new high soon. /r/Bitcoin

The vix is on the move. Possibly signal new high soon. /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

For Bitcoin to break out, traders need to focus on CBOEs VIX (current BTC/USD price is $9,229.22)

Latest Bitcoin News:
For Bitcoin to break out, traders need to focus on CBOEs VIX
Other Related Bitcoin Topics:
Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain
The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools.
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New Watchlist: 5/6 Stabilizing Markets

Market Notes:
The Fed continues to maneuver to support the markets. The VIX continues to fall nearing 30 in a positive sign for the bulls.
Oil keeps moving up, also a good sign for the bulls.
Markets opened up yesterday and held the gains most of the day but slipped right near the close, you can pick a reason if you want but there was no major event driving the selling.
Bitcoin is holding above $9,000 this morning as Argentina is slipping into crisis. Still watching for a breakout above $10,500 before I buy again.
Futures are positive this morning, I'm still bullish. Always ready to have my mind changed.
Watchlist:
LPTH is a multi-day lowish float runner, resistance at $2.60
TORC is a lowish float, watching for a setup above $1.80
NLS is a lowish float in consolidation, watching for a breakout above $6.75ish
PRTS another lowish float, resistance is at $3.75
CWBR is moving on light volume with COVID-19 news, watching for a setup above $4
VRML on watch for a continuation
MVIS still going crazy on with rumors flying, key resistance in the $1.80s
You can find me on Twitter and Twitch '@tradingforkeeps
submitted by tradingforkeeps to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Today's Watchlist: 5/6 Stabilizing Markets

Market Notes:
The Fed continues to maneuver to support the markets. The VIX continues to fall nearing 30 in a positive sign for the bulls.
Oil keeps moving up, also a good sign for the bulls.
Markets opened up yesterday and held the gains most of the day but slipped right near the close, you can pick a reason if you want but there was no major event driving the selling.
Bitcoin is holding above $9,000 this morning as Argentina is slipping into crisis. Still watching for a breakout above $10,500 before I buy again.
Futures are positive this morning, I'm still bullish. Always ready to have my mind changed.
Watchlist:
LPTH is a multi-day lowish float runner, resistance at $2.60
TORC is a lowish float, watching for a setup above $1.80
NLS is a lowish float in consolidation, watching for a breakout above $6.75ish
PRTS another lowish float, resistance is at $3.75
CWBR is moving on light volume with COVID-19 news, watching for a setup above $4
VRML on watch for a continuation
MVIS still going crazy on with rumors flying, key resistance in the $1.80s
submitted by tradingforkeeps to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Watchlist: 5/8 Jobs Report, Gold, Bitcoin, Market Doing Great - Economy Not

Market Notes:
Jobs report due out this morning, expecting to have a double-digit unemployment level for the first time since the great depression.
The market is in great shape, it's doesn't seem to be bothered by any of the bad news for main street. The NASDAQ is actually flat for the year right now.
The economy which appears to have no correlation to the market is in terrible shape. Record high unemployment, massive closings of small businesses across the country. Long lines at food banks.
Gold is ticking up and Bitcoin has been surging the past few days. Famous hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones announced a position in Bitcoin yesterday comparing it to gold in the '70s. With halving less than a week away I'm keeping an eye on the key resistance $10,500 level.
The VIX is low and futures are up. I'm still bullish for the day.
Watchlist:
EMKR is a low float earning play, resistance level around $3.50
PRTS is a lowish float earning play, watching for a continuation
LIVX is a lowish float moving on news, watching for a setup above $3.60
VUZI is a lowish float that surged on news yesterday, on watch today.
FLDM is an earning play on watch
submitted by tradingforkeeps to StockMarket [link] [comments]

NEW Watchlist: 5/8 Jobs report, Gold, Bitcoin, Market Doing Great - Economy Not

Market Notes:
Jobs report due out this morning, expecting to have a double-digit unemployment level for the first time since the great depression.
The market is in great shape, it's doesn't seem to be bothered by any of the bad news for main street. The NASDAQ is actually flat for the year right now.
The economy which appears to have no correlation to the market is in terrible shape. Record high unemployment, massive closings of small businesses across the country.
Gold is ticking up and Bitcoin has been surging the past few days. Famous hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones announced a position in Bitcoin yesterday comparing it to gold in the '70s. With halving less than a week away I'm keeping an eye on the key resistance $10,500 level.
The VIX is low and futures are up. I'm still bullish for the day.
Watchlist:
EMKR is a low float earning play, resistance level around $3.50
PRTS is a lowish float earning play, watching for a continuation
LIVX is a lowish float moving on news, watching for a setup above $3.60
VUZI is a lowish float that surged on news yesterday, on watch today.
FLDM is an earning play on watch
Find me on Twitter & Twitch '@tradingforkeeps
submitted by tradingforkeeps to Daytrading [link] [comments]

supply chain - large metro city

Technicals, Fundamentals. I work in IT for a major forklift / automations provider in a large metro city. Our new orders are down 80%+ from last year this time. Service orders are down 55%+ We have a footprint into the consumer, as most of our products helps to get product from truck to store to consumer. This also applies to the non-brick and mortar. Think of why big name(s) have back-log on orders, think its really due to delivery? Demand destruction! VIX is the canary in the coalmine. Gold isn't even safe, and when Tudor Jones rings the bitcoin bell, take note! There is NO HEDGE to liquidity demand! Can't print our way out of excessive debt!
Even if we get people back to work, someone needs to chart the psychology of the consumer which faces risks of infection. Deflation will come b/c of the lack of demand! Listen to earnings calls, companies are NOT providing guidance! WHY? 9/12/14c SPXS 6/19, painfully, 60% of portfolio sitting in GLD til storm calms. Occasional calls, no more than 2% breakeven on SPY on down days. There are no technical"s" for what we are witnessing with monster FED put!
submitted by TappyDev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
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Nuvmining | Reasons That Bitcoin Cost Is So Unstable

Rate differences in the Bitcoin spot rate on the Bitcoin trading exchanges is driven by several factors. Volatility is assessed in classic markets by the Volatility Index, additionally called the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Volatility in Bitcoin does not yet possess a totally approved index since cryptocurrency as an actual possession class is still in its starting phases, yet we do comprehend that Bitcoin is able of volatility in the type of 10x changes in rate contrasted to the United States buck, in a rather short amount of time. In this post are just a handful of the different factors in back of Bitcoin's volatility:
nuv mining
  1. Price of possession is influenced by negative press.
Information situations that discourage Bitcoin customers contain geopolitical events and declarations by government authorities that Bitcoin is more than likely to be regulated. Bitcoin's first adopters covered many mal stars, creating headline newspaper article that developed worst anxieties in investors. Heading creating Bitcoin information involves the personal bankruptcy of Mt. Gox in early 2014 as well as much more recently that of the South Korean market exchange Yapian Youbit, and others like the high profile utilize of Bitcoin in medicine deals via Silk Road that completed with the FBI shutdown of the market area in October 2013. All these events as well as the public panic that followed forced the value of Bitcoins contrasted to fiat currencies down swiftly. Nevertheless, Bitcoin respectful financiers saw all those occasions as proof that the industry was growing, generating the worth of Bitcoins vs the US buck substantially back up in the short period instantly complying with the info occasions.
nuvmining
  1. Bitcoin's acknowledged worth changes.
One cause why Bitcoin might change versus fiat stock markets is the recognized shop of worth vs the fiat money. Bitcoin has components that make it similar to gold. It is ruled by a layout resolution by the designers of the core technology to max capability its creation to a taken care of quantity, 21 million BTC. Because that varies substantially from fiat money exchange, which is handled by government authorities that intend to preserve reduced inflation, high employment, and appropriate development throughout investment in funding properties, as economies established with fiat values reveal indications of power or weakness, traders might mark basically of their properties right into Bitcoin.
  1. Way too much deviation in understanding of Bitcoin's store of worth and also method of worth.
Bitcoin changability is additionally driven in massive part by varying understandings of the implicit worth of the cryptocurrency as a conserve of worth as well as method of worth transfer. A shop of value is the action by that a possession can quickly be advantageous in the future using some predictability. A shop of value can easily be maintained as well as altered for some great or solution in the future. A method of value transfer is any example or principle used to move home in the sort of possessions from one entity to one more. Bitcoin's unpredictability at the here and now creates it a rather uncertain shop of value, yet it ensures nearly frictionless worth transfer. As these two chauffeurs of the recent area value of Bitcoin vary from the United States buck as well as other fiat foreign currencies, we see that Bitcoin's worth can move based on news occasions very much as we discover with fiat stock markets.
  1. Little selection worth to massive owners of the currency.
Bitcoin unpredictability is likewise somewhat driven by holders of huge proportions of the overall amazing float of the money. For Bitcoin investors with recent holdings above about $10M, it is not apparent exactly how they would eradicate a placement that big right into a fiat placement with out dramatically relocating the market. Considering that Bitcoin's amount resembles a tiny cap stock, the currency has not strike the mass market possession rates that might be called for to use choice value to huge owners of the cryptocurrency.
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Video: Damodaran updates market perspective

Refers to this earlier video that evaluated the market's decline.
New video updates with new information from the last 12 days.
TL;DW:
submitted by PapaCharlie9 to investing [link] [comments]

DON’T PANIC. The Guide To The Current Situation In The Cryptogalaxy

DON’T PANIC. The Guide To The Current Situation In The Cryptogalaxy
In the last month, the world markets are experiencing dramatic events. In light of the coronavirus pandemic, an economic crisis is unfolding in the world. Because of quarantine actions across the world, many manufactures and non-food stores are being closed, the level of product turnover is falling. Small and medium-sized businesses suffer huge losses due to downtime, the unemployment rate increases and the purchasing power, in the opposite, decreases.
The value of the CBOE VIX index, reflecting the level of market volatility, increased the value to 82 points, for comparison, during the 2008 crisis, this index did not exceed 80 points, and in recent years it has been held at the level of 15-25 with peaks up to 45. Against the background of total panic among investors, on March 30, Brent crude updated the minimum of November 2002, falling to the level of $22.6 per barrel. The S&P, Dow Jones and Nikkei indexes are critically losing their positions. Experts note that the downward trend began even before the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the spread of the disease played a crucial role in the crisis increase.
by StealthEX
At the same time, digital assets also found themselves in a zone of turbulence: in the middle of the month, the price of bitcoin fell to $3800, followed by the price of altcoins. Panic sale leads to a chain reaction, many investors are getting rid of the cryptocurrency which is considered a risky investment, and the price of coins continues to decline.
The cryptocurrency market highly depends on what is happening in the world, so it will strengthen and continue to grow only when the situation with the pandemic becomes clear and less unpredictable. Therefore, the main task at this stage is to maintain composure and don’t give in to emotions when making decisions.
Despite the extremely uncertain situation, most analysts now give fairly favorable forecasts. Judging by the latest fluctuations in the exchange rate, the cryptocurrency market has come out of an uncontrolled fall. In their opinion, we expect a long flat with a slow trend of price growth against the background of halving. Despite bearish trends and skidding at $6,500, at the close of the quarter, bitcoin was able to hold above the important support level of $6,400. Michaël van de Poppe, a cryptanalyst of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, believes that now bitcoin is in the stage of consolidation and will gradually pay off in the next 4-6 years. Tuur Demeester, analyst and founder of Adamant Capital, suggests that holding the $6,300 level could be a key resistance level before the bull market can resume.
Similar dynamics are predicted for altcoins, which maintain a high correlation with the first cryptocurrency.
Here’s what the quarterly charts for BTC, ETH and XRP look like:

Bitcoin chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko

Ethereum chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko

XRP chart for 3 months. Source: CoinGecko
Also, experts in cryptocurrency research believe that the current situation in the oil and stock markets can have a positive impact on digital currencies. WTI oil, like Brent, fell to the level of 2002, trading around $20 mark. Black gold continues to look very vulnerable as well as the prospects for the oil market in general.
At the end of the first quarter of 2020, the bitcoin exchange rate decreased by 13%, but in comparison with traditional stock markets, the first cryptocurrency showed more successful results. The S&P 500 index, which includes shares of the 500 largest companies by capitalization, fell 19% to 2,584 points. This is the worst figure since 1938. President Trump’s proposal to allocate $2.2 trillion to support the American economy is criticized by many economists as leading to more problems than offering a real solution. They consider hyperinflation as the most likely scenario for the next year.
Since cryptocurrencies are not subject to inflation and are not in control of governments and banks, many predict that digital assets will be popular as a tool for hedging risks.
Earlier co-founder and CEO of Gemini exchange Tyler Winklevoss stated in his twitter:
https://preview.redd.it/xc61jsazlls41.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=06084bd6d511f93da4c485cd7eb3281566f2c4cc
The founder, head and CEO of the Galaxy Digital, Michael Novogratz, also believes that cryptocurrencies with mathematically limited emission could be a safe haven in the face of inflation.

Peter Brandt called the current crisis a “perfect storm” and noted that it could be a crucial period for Bitcoin. It is at this point that the coin can reveal itself as a protective asset and grow in price. In his tweet of March 23, he also advises treating cryptocurrencies as insurance policies rather than investments.
Trading volume on 22 popular crypto exchanges increased by 61% in the first quarter compared to the previous one — to $154 billion.
In March, major cryptocurrency exchanges recorded a sharp increase in the number of new users. Pierre Richard strategist of the Kraken exchange believes that people who are concerned about the futile efforts of the authorities to contain the crisis against the background of the pandemic feel the need to leave the centralized financial system.
With other positive aspects, we should not forget that cryptocurrencies remain extremely susceptible to manipulation by major players. That collapse, which we experienced in the middle of the month, allowed corporations to buy coins at an extremely low price and, in fact, nothing can prevent them from attacking the market in the future.
Whatever happens on the market, you can always exchange coins at StealthEX as we always have unlimited exchanges without requesting personal data. A large number of currencies available for exchange will allow you to create your investment portfolio in the most suitable way for you.
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/04/09/dont-panic-the-guide-to-the-current-situation-in-the-cryptogalaxy/
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Liftoff

Liftoff submitted by silver_89 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The world economy is on the verge of crisis again, cryptocurrencies will be strong

Vulnerability refers to the property that things are vulnerable to damage when faced with fluctuations.
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In the face of economic fluctuations, it is disadvantageous to hold such a negative view. Every capital market has its own life cycle, which inevitably goes through a process from growth, to peak, and then to recession. Now is no exception. As we emerge from the longest bull market in history, we suddenly find ourselves in a highly vulnerable global economy facing the panicked and perplexed planet unprepared. However, the turmoil has just begun.
Newton's first law, also known as "the law of inertia", means that any object must maintain a constant linear motion or standstill until an external force forces it to change its state of motion. Although this analogy does not perfectly correspond to the capital market (because the market is always changing and developing in different directions), at least one thing is certain that under the action of the market mechanism, the market cycle always appears Trend from peak to valley.
The music box winds up, and the performance of the song sounds, and then it stops after a while. When this happens, the market structure collapses, eventually leading to huge chaos, and then falling into silence. Once external forces force the entire economy into trouble, people will realize the long-standing hidden structural defects in the economy.
Now, the world economy is on the verge of crisis again. All human beings have to face a sudden outbreak of a global epidemic and the resulting shocks in supply and demand in the market. The economies of some countries have stalled. Ironically, the effects of inertia may be prevalent in market fluctuations.
While witnessing the development of the global economy, we still find two simultaneous macro trends:
--1-- USD strong We believe that the strong US dollar is driven by three factors: Investors turn to safe assets: Despite the Fed ’s interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus policies, the market ’s increasing demand for the US dollar has pushed up the US dollar index and hit a new high in 18 years.
US Dollar Financing Issues: Cross-currency basis swaps measure that investors are more inclined to hold the US dollar than the euro or the yen.
On March 17, the euro-dollar basis swap swap premium expanded from -60 basis points to -120 basis points, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the Euro-US dollar basis swap has rapidly dropped to about -27 basis points, while the US dollar-Japanese yen basis swap has expanded to -70 basis points. Negative basis points indicate greater pressure on the dollar and higher hedging costs for European and Japanese investors.
The reality is that U.S. banks, which are the main source of funding for the U.S. dollar, are storing large amounts of cash instead of actively issuing short-term U.S. dollar loans to foreign banks. Due to recent pressure from the balance sheet, more and more U.S. banks are beginning to reduce credit lines to retain cash. In addition, many foreign banks that lack direct access to the US dollar market can only rely on central bank liquidity swaps for financing. This week, the Fed and several other central banks opened new liquidity swap tools, providing USD 30 billion to USD 60 billion of liquidity, respectively, to ease pressure on USD financing.
Central banks in emerging market countries are taking urgent steps and lowering their benchmark interest rates: Emerging market investors are very worried about the stability of their currencies and are pouring into the dollar market. According to Bloomberg, all major emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar on January 20, just as the new crown virus began to spread in Asia.
——2—— Treasury liquidity tightening Abnormally performing credit markets: In general, price fluctuations will prompt investors to switch from risky assets (such as stocks) to safe-haven assets (such as bonds). This was indeed the case when the new coronavirus was causing panic. However, the current despair of liquidity (especially cash) by market investors has led to a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, falling bond prices and rising interest rates.
Repurchase market: The Federal Reserve's rescue measures have not brought the expected results. In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced three repurchases and other measures to release liquidity, hoping to ease the current state of the US Treasury market and reduce the inventory of primary dealers. However, market demand for government bonds remains sluggish.
Let's turn our eyes from the home of the macro economy to the cryptocurrency market. Although they are not necessarily related, we find that the two are closely related.
In the face of volatility, it is particularly important to develop a price action strategy. The CBOE-VIX index, an indicator that predicts the trend of the S & P 500 in the next 30 days, has surged to its highest level since the last global financial crisis. At the same time, we also saw that the 90-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options rose to 6.8% (annualized 130%), which is about 5.9% (annualized 113%) this weekend. As the "Black Thursday" on March 12th, BTC was down 40% and ETH was down 50%, some leveraged positions were forced to close. According to reports, BitMEX alone closed USD 700 million worth of long and short positions. At the same time, the sell-off of ETH dropped the value of the DeFi ecosystem by 40%. The total amount of collateral liquidation of Compound, dYdX and Maker and other lending platforms reached US $ 10 million. But in this turbulent market, not all assets perform so badly.
Although the price of BTC, like the stock market at the beginning, plummeted, falling by 60% from the high price in mid-February, it rebounded by about 50% from the price low on March 12. Over the past period, we have found a large amount of funds flowing from altcoins to BTC. With the spot premium (the spot price is higher than the futures price), the demand for bitcoin lending has increased. The effective fund interest rate also gradually returned to normal as the curve was inverted. In contrast, when futures are at a premium (the futures price is higher than the spot price), there is almost no demand for BTC's lending transactions. At present, the BTC funding rate on various lending platforms has increased from 3-5% to 8%, and the ETH funding rate has increased from 2-4% to 6%.
——3—— Floating profit stablecoin market Since February 14, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with a market value of $ 45 billion evaporated. At the same time, the market value of USDT has risen to nearly $ 5 billion. USDT has emerged from this market volatility and has become a safe-haven asset. This week, the premium rate of USDT prices in China and South Korea is as high as 7%, which is caused by the demand of payment service providers and arbitrage traders. The current over-the-counter USDT supply exceeds supply. At the same time, the market value of USDC climbed to US $ 630 million, a record high. The market value of BUSD is exceeding the US $ 150 million mark, mainly due to the surge in demand for Binance's borrowing and margin trading.
——4—— Near-term outlook We pay close attention to the changing macroeconomic trends and the successive monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments around the world. Although we cannot predict the specific trend of the market, we still believe that cryptocurrency as an asset class will be strong. In a nutshell, we think:
● Due to the recent sell-off in the market, the value of positions has shrunk sharply, making the distribution of positions in the market clearer.
● With the exit of market makers, the spread between major exchanges has brought more market arbitrage opportunities for retail traders. In particular, the derivatives market (futures and perpetual swaps) has seen a significant discount compared to the spot market, which has pushed up BTC's lending rate.
● By hedging the spot and long futures, market participants can carry out arbitrage trading, which is completely contrary to the market situation we saw last year (the futures price is significantly higher than the spot).
● Over the past six months, trading activities in the options market have grown rapidly. We expect that trading activities in the options market will continue to grow.
● At present, on our platform, institutional clients such as hedge funds, arbitrage traders, crypto companies, etc. have all bought a lot of BTC and USDT.
Market volatility is part of investment. We believe that after a period of time, the economy will re-enter the upward trajectory, please let us work together for it.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

Dow drops more than 170 points on rising rate fears in biggest decline of the year so far

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/us-stocks-interest-rates-earnings.html
I personally think that the bond rate will correct soon, so nothing to worry about.
A part of me, however, is slightly worried about this. With all of the baby boomers now reaching retirement age, more will be seeking to roll over their stocks into (much safer) bonds. If the 10 year bond yield does exceed 3%, I believe that it would be enough of an excuse for the boomers to start rolling more money over. And the thing is, baby boomers have A LOT in the market.
However, a correction is due in order to stay healthy. I expect that one will occur, and the extreme growth will slow. What do you guys think?
submitted by tannerkubarek to investing [link] [comments]

My main Day Trading screen

My main Day Trading screen
This is what my main Day Trading screen looks like!
What about yours??

https://preview.redd.it/rogxp2prt0a31.png?width=3839&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb4c83a4f80c149db2753580e17e371e1f823411
Top left: 4 DOMs, left-most I change often. In the screenshot, it's showing Bitcoin futures, but I often look at Gold, Crude Oil, or currencies there. Second is most of the time the 10-year or 30-year treasury futures. Third one is the main, where I trade the E-mini S&P 500 futures. Fourth one is the E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures. This is where I place and manage nearly all of my orders related to day trading. The exception being when I'm day trading options, I might sometimes not use a DOM at all and just place the orders directly using an "order entry" window.
Bottom left: 5-min chart corresponding to the left-most DOM, the trading controls for the 4 DOMs above, the VIX and the TICK charts — these last 2 help me in my decision making process when trading the E-mini S&P 500 futures.
Right: in the top a TPO chart corresponding to 3rd (main) DOM, and below it a delta volume chart also corresponding to the main DOM (*). Behind it (not shown) there's a very long-term (i.e., many years worth of data) OHLC weekly chart of the SP500 with nothing on it.
All over the place, there are some watchlists with instruments I like to watch, trade, and some longer-term portfolios and strategies I have positions on.
On a separate screen (not shown), I have Interactive Brokers' Trader Workstation platform open with my portfolio, order management and history, and an options chain, and a separate tab with Risk Navigator. In addition, there's TweetDeck, and a browser, where I mostly read news, reports, and other data. Oh, and Spotify, as I need music to trade!

(*) the delta volume chart includes to the left the daily volume profile (VP) grouped at points (rather than at individual ticks), highlighting the Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Value Area (VA). To right, there's another VP with mostly the same settings, except that it shows volume at individual ticks, and it only looks at the most recent 1-hour period, which it displays with a dashed box. The yellow background is the developing VA. The blue / yellow dots are the VWAP, with the color just representing where price is relative to the VWAP. Below it, I have the Cumulative Delta (CD), which highlights whenever there's divergence between price and CD movements (e.g., the left-most green highlight means that CD was going down, and price was going up), and also highlights whenever bars are formed too quickly (the "falling" thin white lines you can see a bunch of near 13:00, which is the market close at my timezone). Further down, the yellow horizontal line is yellow for the day session and blue for the overnight session, which helps me when I'm looking at more data. All the way down, there's a simple volume histogram.
submitted by bfreis to Daytrading [link] [comments]

how to trade volatility 75 profitably all the time New high Paying Bitcoin Cloud Mining Site!!Vix Ice!!(2017) The US Just Made THE LARGEST PURCHASE of Bitcoin Miners in History! Cryptocurrency News Online 2020 THIS IS HUUUGE!!!! BITCOIN NEWS CONFIRMING $30,000 BULL RUN NOW SAYS Harding Says VIX a Bit Like Bitcoin, It's Misunderstood

Bitcoin’s sudden correlation with traditional markets should not be seen as refuting its status as a promising safe haven investment. The most reasonable explanation for the current market situation is that the global spread of Covid-19 is a textbook ”black swan” event — an unforeseen occurrence that has profound impact on markets All eyes on VIX vs. BTC As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin remains susceptible to stock market volatility , but nonetheless is pushing to regain its start-of-year position at $7,200. Recent News ETH/USD Makes Some Headway Above 243.99: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 6 June 2020 ETH Bearish Headwinds at 9849 for BTC/USD: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 6 June 2020 BTC ETH/USD's Test of 247.61 Was Bullish: Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 5 June 2020 ETH Bitcoin Is Close To The Next Big Move Source: CBOECorrelation between Bitcoin and VIX and Others Previously, we have studied the correlation between BTC and gold , the distinguishing characteristic of the leading cryptocurrency makes it a safe-haven asset and hedge against market uncertainties, and we believe that the specific nature of BTC was at least partially behind the recent VIX Today: Get all information on the VIX Index including historical chart, news and constituents.

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how to trade volatility 75 profitably all the time

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