(if you would like to add information or see mistakes, just comment below and I will credit you) What is Cardano? Cardano is an open source and permissionless "Third Generation" blockchain project being developed by IOHK. Development and research started in 2015, with the 1.0 mainnet launching in 2017. Cardano blockchain is currently being developed into two layers. The first one is the ledger of account values, and the second one is the reason why values are transferred from one account to the other.
Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) - The CSL acts as the ledger of account or balance ledger. This is an idea created as an improvement of bitcoin blockchain. It uses a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm known as Ouroboros to generate new blocks and confirm transactions.
IOHK has the contract with an undisclosed party to develop the project until the end of 2020, at which point the community may elect another development team - on the assumption that the voting infrastructure has been completed. However CEO Charles Hoskinson has stated that they will develop the project until it is completed, and they are simply financed until the end of 2020. Cardano was the first project built on a peer-reviewed scientific development method, resulting in dozens of research papers produced by IOHK. Among these papers is Ouroboros Genesis, proving that a Proof of Stake protocol can be just as secure as Proof of Work - which was originally developed for Bitcoin, and refined for Ethereum. This PoS protocol considerably lowers the resources cost to maintain network while still maintaining security and network speed. Cardano as a financial infrastructure is not yet completed, With significant development to be rolled out. What were the other two generations of blockchain? Gen 1 was Bitcoin. It exists by itself and talks to nobody but Bitcoin. It is capable of peer to peer transactions without a third party in such a way that you cannot cheat the system. This was a major step forward for the E-cash concept that people have been working on for the 20 years prior. Gen 2 was Ethereum and other smart-contract platforms that allow other coins and platforms to be built on top of their infrastructure. These coins can interact with others on the platform, but cannot interact with other platforms. Meaning it is still not truly interoperable. Most Gen 2 blockchains are also using Proof of Work likes Bitcoin, which effects scaling. Also missing is a built-in method to pay for upgrades and voting mechanics for decision making. Gen 3 blockchains are a complete package designed to replace the current financial infrastructure of the world. Cardano is using Proof of Stake to ensure security and decentralisation(Shelley). Scaling through parallel computation (Hydra in Basho), Sidechains to allow the platform to interact with other platforms (Basho), and also include mechanisms for voting for project funding, changes to the protocol and improvement proposals (Voltaire). Finally smart contracts platform for new and established projects that are developer friendly (Goguen). Who is the team behind Cardano? There are three organisations that are contributing to the development of Cardano. The first is the Cardano Foundation, an objective, non-profit organisation based in Switzerland. Its core responsibilities are to nurture, grow and educate Cardano users and commercial communities, to engage with authorities on regulatory and commercial matters and to act as a blockchain and cryptocurrency standards body. The second entity is IOHK, a leading cryptocurrency research and development company, which holds the contract to develop the platform until 2020. The final business partner is Emurgo, which invests in start-ups and assists commercial ventures to build on the Cardano blockchain. www.Cardano.orgwww.emurgo.iohttps://cardanofoundation.org/en/ What is the difference between Proof of Work and Proof of stake? Both these protocols are known as “consensus protocols” that confirm whether a transaction is valid or invalid without a middleman like Visa or your bank. Every node (active and updated copy of the blockchain) can agree that the transaction did take place legitimately. If more than half validators agree, then the ledger is updated and the transaction is now secured. Proof-of-Work (PoW) happens when a miner is elected to solve an exceptionally difficult math problem and gets credit for adding a verified block to the blockchain. Finding a solution is an arduous guessing game that takes a considerable amount of computing power to compete for the correct answer. It is like “pick a number between 1 and one trillion” and when you get it right, you get $30,000 in Bitcoin, so the more computers you have working on it, the faster you can solve it. Also the more people who are trying to solve the same block, the harder the algorithm, so it may become 1 in 20 trillion. The downside is the massive amounts of power required to run the computers that run the network, and the slow pace that blocks are solved. To “Hack” a PoW system, you need 51% of the computing power, which would allow you to deny transactions, or spend the same coin twice. At the moment there are 8 main mining operations for bitcoin, and 4 of them make up more that 51% of the mining power. PoS instead selects a coin at random that already exists, and the person who owns that coin is elected to put the work in to validate the block. This means there is no contest and no guessing game. Some computer power is required, but only a fraction of a PoW system. The complex nature of selecting a coin that exists on the correct and longest chain and is owned by someone who can complete the block, AND in such a way that it is secure AND that computer currently running AND that person also having an incentive to complete the work, has made the development of PoS very slow. However only a few years ago it wasn’t even possible. In this method, the more of the coin (ADA) you stake, the more likely you are to be selected to close a block. Cardano also allows you to delegate your stake to someone else to validate the block so they do the work, and you share in the reward for doing so. To “hack” a PoS blockchain you need to own 51% of the tokens, which is significantly harder than owning 51% of the computing power. What is ADA and how is it different to Cardano? Cardano is the name of the network infrastructure, and can be thought of like a rail network. ADA is the native token that has been developed alongside Cardano to facilitate the network operation. This helps confusion and maintains distinction, compared to Ethereum being the native token of Ethereum. Similar to bitcoin or any other token, ADA can be sent peer to peer as payment, but is also the reward for running the network, and what is taken as transaction fees. In this metaphor “Cardano” is the train tracks, that everything runs on. A stake pool would be the locomotive, facilitating transactions on the network while ADA is the coal that powers the locomotive. The train carriages are Decentralised applications (Dapps) that are also running on cardano tracks, but are not actively powering the network. What is staking Cardano is a Proof of Stake protocol, and uses already existing coins like a marker to ensure security. The protocol chooses a coin at random and the owner of that coin is elected to validate a block of transactions. Staking is the process of adding your ADA coins to a Pool that has the resources to run the network. If the pool you have chosen to "delegate" your stake to is chosen to close/validate a block, then you get a portion of the rewards. The ADA never leaves your wallet, and you can "undelegate" whenever you like. this increases stability of the network and also gives an incentive to pool operators to invest the time and hardware required to run a pool. What is a stake-pool and how does it work?Cardano.org FAQ on the issue goes into much more detail A stake pool is where the computing power of the network takes place. During ITN there was 1200 registered stake pools while 300 were creating blocks. You can manage your own stake-pool or delegate your ADA to an already registered pool. Rewards are determined by the protocol, however the pool may elect to charge fee Percentages, or flat rate fee to upkeep their pool. Can I Stake my ADA right now? The staking testnet has closed, If you participated in the Incentivised Test Net and earned rewards, instructions to check the balance are here. However if you have just purchased some or it was held on an exchange, then you will need to wait until the Shelley mainnet launch happening at the end of July 2020. Where do I stake my ADA? Daedalus Flight wallet, and Yoroi Wallet (as a chrome extension) are the current best options. Adalite and several other third-party wallets also exist. Coinbase will also allow staking as a custodial service, and many exchanges may offer “staking as a service” so you can leave your coins on the exchange and still earn rewards if you enjoy trading. I do not recommend leaving coins on an exchange unless you are actively trading. What are the staking rewards now and what can I expect on a return in the future? The Incentivised Test Net (ITN) Delivered 10%-15%pa returns on average. The future of staking will most likely be lower, but will depend on the amount of ADA staked across the network and the amount of network traffic. Check https://staking.cardano.org/en/calculato for a clearer picture. what is a Pledge? To stop one person operating many pools, the rewards that a pool earns will vary depending on the amount of personal ADA they “pledge” to open the pool. This means that 50 pools with a 1,00ADA pledge each will be overall less profitable than 1-2 pool with the max ADA pledge (unknown but likely around 300k). Even if the 50 pools have the same over stake delegated by other users and have a better chance of being selected to close a block, the 50 pools may receive lower rewards.. (at least that is the theory) Who is IOHK? IOHK is a for-profit software engineering company founded by CEO Charles Hoskinson and Jeremy Wood in 2015 that has taken a scientific approach to the development of blockchain. IOHK started with “first principles” and looked at questions like “what is a blockchain” and “what should a blockchain be able to do” rather than accepting the established paradigm of Bitcoin and Ethereum. IOHK was originally Input Output Hong Kong, but is now Input Output Global and is based in Wyoming USA employing over 230 staff. IOHK has established research labs in several universities in order to complete the Cardano project, and is also developing Ethereum Classic, Atala, Mantis and possibly other Blockchain related programs and infrastructure. Who is Charles? Charles Hoskinson is an early adopter of cryptocurrencies, American entrepreneur and cryptocurrency specialist. Charles Co-founded Ethereum with Vitalik Buterin and 5-8 others, However he only worked on that project for approximately six-months. Charles is now the CEO of IOHK and the director of The Bitcoin Education Project. Why isn’t ADA on coinbase? Cardano and coinbase have recently connected in a big way. With IOHK turning over all their ADA to the custodial services of Coinbase. This means that Cardano and Coinbase have been working together for some time and there is a strong partnership forming. Staking and cold storage will be available and trading on Coinbase will most likely become available after the release of Shelley (although no official word yet) Why Doesn’t Cardano have a Wikipedia Page? Wikipedia has strict guidelines on what can be turned into an article. As there has been no coverage of Cardano from mainstream media or “noteworthy” sources, there is no article yet. Wikipedia will also not accept sources from IOHK as they are not considered “reliable” and must come from a third party. This will most likely change soon. Cardano does have a dedicated community driven wiki https://cardanowiki.info/wiki/Home What is Atala and why do I care?* Atala is a suite of services being developed on top of the cardano blockchain by IOHK that focusses on credential certification, for things like education, work history and degrees (Atala Prism). Product counterfeiting protection through registering products on a blockchain and create taper-proof provenance. This does not only apply to Gucci handbags, but also medication, art, and anything that can be counterfeited (Atala Scan). As well as supply chain tracking to see issues and inefficiencies with greater transparency(Atala Trace). Im new, how much is a good investment? Cardano is still a speculative market and although there is amazing potential here, it is still only potential. When investing in any High risk market like Crypto, only every invest what you are willing to lose. Cardano may be testing the 10c barrier now. But in March it dumped to 1.7c. And if you suddenly need your money back during the dump then you are out of luck. Do your research before you FOMO in. Start with a small amount and send it between wallets and exchanges to understand how the system works. Store your private keys offline (or online cloud service but encrypted) with a method that is unlikely to be damaged AND have multiple copies. So in the case of a house fire or a blow to the head, or the cloud service being shutdown/destroyed, you do not lose your money. Timelines https://roadmap.cardano.org/en/ Shelley Decentralisation rollout and news Goguen smart contract rollout Voltaire Voting mechanics – no official roll out timeline (though promised for 2020) Basho scaling and sidechains – no official roll out time line (most likely 2021)
Cardano FAQ What is Cardano? Cardano is an open source highly secure "Third Generation" blockchain project being developed by IOHK. Development and research started in 2015, with the 1.0 mainnet launching in 2017. Cardano blockchain is currently being developed into two layers. The first one is the ledger of account values, and the second one is the reason why values are transferred from one account to the other.
Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) - The CSL acts as the ledger of account or balance ledger. This is an idea created as an improvement of bitcoin blockchain. It uses a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm to generate new blocks and confirm transactions.
IOHK has the contract with an undisclosed party to develop the project until the end of 2020, at which point the community may elect another - on the assumption that the voting infrastructure has been completed. However CEO Charles Hoskinson has stated that they will develop the project until it is completed, and they are simply financed until the end of 2020. Cardano was the first project built on a peer-reviewed scientific development method, resulting in dozens of research papers produced by IOHK. Among these papers is Ouroboros Genesis, proving that a Proof of Stake protocol can be just as secure as Proof of Work, which was originally developed for Bitcoin, and refined for Ethereum. This PoS protocol considerably lowers the resources cost to maintain network while still maintaining security and network speed. Cardano as a financial infrastructure is not yet completed, With significant development to be rolled out. What were the other two generations of blockchain? Gen 1 was Bitcoin. It exists by itself and talks to nobody but bitcoin. It is capable of peer to peer transactions without a third party in such a way that you cannot cheat the system. this was a major step forward for the E-cash concept. Gen 2 was Ethereum and other smart-contract platforms that allow other coins to be built on top of their infrastructure. These coins can interact with others on the platform, but cannot interact with other platforms like Stella, Bitcoin, cardano - and so on. Also most Gen 2 blockchains are also using Proof of Work likes Bitcoin, which effects scaling. Gen 3 blockchains are using Proof of Stake to ensure scaling, Sidechains to allow the platform to interact with other platforms, like ethereum and bitcoin, and also include smart contracts that are developer friendly. Who is the team behind Cardano? There are three organisations that are contributing to the development of Cardano. The first is the Cardano Foundation, an objective, non-profit organisation based in Switzerland. Its core responsibilities are to nurture, grow and educate Cardano users and commercial communities, to engage with authorities on regulatory and commercial matters and to act as a blockchain and cryptocurrency standards body. The second entity working on Cardano is IOHK, a leading cryptocurrency research and development company, which holds the contract to develop the platform until 2020. The final business partner is Emurgo, which invests in start-ups and assists commercial ventures to build on the Cardano blockchain. (from https://www.cardano.org/en/help-support/) What is the difference between PoS and PoW? Both these protocols are known as “consensus protocols” that confirm whether a transaction is valid or invalid without a middleman like Visa or your bank. Every node (active and updated copy of the blockchain) can agree that the transaction did take place legitimately. If more than half the network agrees, then the transaction is validated. Proof-of-Work (PoW) happens when a miner solves an exceptionally difficult math problem and gets credit for adding a verified block to the blockchain. Finding a solution is an arduous guessing game that takes a considerable amount of computing power to compete for the correct answer. It is like “pick a number between 1 and one trillion” and when you get it right, you get $30,000 in Bitcoin, so the more computers you have working on it, the faster you can solve it. Also the more people who are trying to solve the same block, the harder the algorithm, so it may become 1 in 20 trillion. The downside is the massive amounts of power required to run the computers that run the network, and the slow pace that blocks are solved. To “Hack” a PoW system, you need 51% of the computing power, which would allow you to deny transactions, or spend the same coin twice. PoS instead selects a coin at random that already exists, and the person who owns that coin is elected to put the work in to validate the block. This means there is no contest and no guessing game. Some computer power is required, but only a fraction of a PoW system. The complex nature of selecting a coin that exists on the correct and longest chain and is owned by someone who can complete the block, AND in such a way that it is secure AND that computer currently running AND that person also having an incentive to complete the work, has made the development of PoS very slow. However only a few years ago it wasn’t even possible. In this method, the more of the coin (ADA) you stake, the more likely you are to be selected to close a block. Cardano also allows you to delegate your stake to someone else to validate the block so they do the work, and you share in the reward for doing so. To “hack” a PoS blockchain you need to own 51% of the tokens, which is significantly harder than owning 51% of the computing power. What is ADA and how is it different to Cardano? Cardano is the name of the network infrastructure, and can be thought of like a rail network. ADA is the native token that has been developed alongside Cardano to facilitate the network operation. This helps confusion and maintains distinction, compared to Ethereum being the native token of Ethereum. Similar to bitcoin or any other token, ADA can be sent peer to peer as payment, but is also the reward for running the network, and what is taken as transaction fees. In this metaphor “Cardano” is the train tracks, that everything runs on. A stake pool would be the locomotive, facilitating transactions on the network while ADA is the coal that powers the locomotive. The train carriages are Decentralised applications (Dapps) that are also running on cardano tracks, but are not actively powering the network. What is staking Cardano is a Proof of Stake protocol, and uses already existing coins like a marker to ensure security. The protocol chooses a coin at random and the owner of that coin is elected to validate a block of transactions. Staking is the process of adding your ADA coins to a Pool that has the resources to run the network. If the pool you have chosen to "delegate" your stake to is chosen to close/validate a block, then you get a portion of the rewards. The ADA never leaves your wallet, and you can "undelegate" whenever you like. this increases stability of the network and also gives an incentive to pool operators to invest the time and hardware required to run a pool. What is a stake-pool and how does it work? A stake pool is where the computing power of the network takes place. Currently there are 1200 registered stake pools while 300 are creating blocks. You can manage your own stake-pool or delegate your ADA to an already registered pool. Rewards are determined by the protocol, however the pool may elect to charge fee Percentages, or flat rate fee to upkeep their pool. Can I Stake my ADA right now? If you had ADA in a Yoroi or Daedalus wallet before November 2019 then yes, you can stake. However if you have just purchased some or it was held on an exchange, then you will need to wait until August 18 (hopefully) for pools to start creating blocks, and first staking rewards will be 5 days later. Where do I stake my ADA? Daedalus Flight wallet - Or Daedalus ITN, and Yoroi Wallet (as a chrome extension) are the current best options. What are the staking rewards now and what can I expect on a return in the future? At the moment the Incentivised Test Net (ITN) is delivering 10%-15%pa returns on average. The future of staking will most likely be lower, but will depend on the amount of ADA staked across the network and the amount of network traffic. However it should not be completely dissimilar from the ITN, with most speculating 6%-10%pa compounding weekly….at this point there is no solid answer what is a Pledge? To stop one person operating many pools, the rewards that a pool earns will vary depending on the amount of personal ADA they “pledge” to open the pool. This means that 100 pools with a 10,00ADA pledge will be overall less profitable than 1 pool with 1,000,000 ADA pledge. (at least that is the theory) Who is IOHK? IOHK is a for-profit software engineering company founded by CEO Charles Hoskinson and Jeremy Wood in 2015 that has taken a scientific approach to the development of blockchain. IOHK started with “first principles” and looked at questions like “what is a blockchain” and “what should a blockchain be able to do” rather than accepting the established paradigm of Bitcoin and Ethereum. IOHK was originally Input Output Hong Kong, but is now Input Output Global and is based in Wyoming USA employing over 230 staff. IOHK has established research labs in several universities in order to complete the Cardano project, and is also developing Ethereum Classic, Atilia, Mantis and possibly other Blockchain related programs and infrastructure. Who is Charles? Charles Hoskinson is an American entrepreneur and cryptocurrency specialist. Charles is often cited in the media as the Co-founder of Ethereum, but only worked on that project for approximately six-months. Charles is now the CEO of IOHK and the director of The Bitcoin Education Project. Why isn’t ADA on coinbase? There is no official word specifically as to why Cardano is not on Coinbase, However there prevailing theory is that Coinbase requires the coins to be decentralised. and as Cardano is still being developed, it will not be added Shelley is released, or possibly never, it is totally up to coinbase. However Charles did mention in an AMA that IOG has been working with many exchanges for the Shelley rollout. Why Doesn’t Cardano have a Wikipedia Page? Wikipedia has strict guidelines on what can be turned into an article. As there has been no coverage of Cardano from mainstream media or “noteworthy” sources, there is no article yet. Wikipedia will also not accept sources from IOHK as they are not considered “reliable” and must come from a third party. This will most likely change soon. Cardano does have a dedicated community driven wiki https://cardanowiki.info/wiki/Home
Review and Prospect of Crypto Economy-Development and Evolution of Consensus Mechanism (2)
https://preview.redd.it/a51zsja94db51.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=99e8080c9e9b1fb5e11cbd70f915f9cb37188f81 Foreword The consensus mechanism is one of the important elements of the blockchain and the core rule of the normal operation of the distributed ledger. It is mainly used to solve the trust problem between people and determine who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining the effective unification of the system in the blockchain system. Thus, it has become an everlasting research hot topic in blockchain. This article starts with the concept and role of the consensus mechanism. First, it enables the reader to have a preliminary understanding of the consensus mechanism as a whole; then starting with the two armies and the Byzantine general problem, the evolution of the consensus mechanism is introduced in the order of the time when the consensus mechanism is proposed; Then, it briefly introduces the current mainstream consensus mechanism from three aspects of concept, working principle and representative project, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the mainstream consensus mechanism; finally, it gives suggestions on how to choose a consensus mechanism for blockchain projects and pointed out the possibility of the future development of the consensus mechanism. Contents First, concept and function of the consensus mechanism 1.1 Concept: The core rules for the normal operation of distributed ledgers 1.2 Role: Solve the trust problem and decide the generation and maintenance of new blocks 1.2.1 Used to solve the trust problem between people 1.2.2 Used to decide who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining effective unity in the blockchain system 1.3 Mainstream model of consensus algorithm Second, the origin of the consensus mechanism 2.1 The two armies and the Byzantine generals 2.1.1 The two armies problem 2.1.2 The Byzantine generals problem 2.2 Development history of consensus mechanism 2.2.1 Classification of consensus mechanism 2.2.2 Development frontier of consensus mechanism Third, Common Consensus System Fourth, Selection of consensus mechanism and summary of current situation 4.1 How to choose a consensus mechanism that suits you 4.1.1 Determine whether the final result is important 4.1.2 Determine how fast the application process needs to be 4.1.2 Determining the degree to which the application requires for decentralization 4.1.3 Determine whether the system can be terminated 4.1.4 Select a suitable consensus algorithm after weighing the advantages and disadvantages 4.2 Future development of consensus mechanism Last lecture review: Chapter 1 Concept and Function of Consensus Mechanism plus Chapter 2 Origin of Consensus Mechanism Chapter 3 Common Consensus Mechanisms (Part 1) Figure 6 Summary of relatively mainstream consensus mechanisms 📷 https://preview.redd.it/9r7q3xra4db51.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=bae5554a596feaac948fae22dffafee98c4318a7 Source: Hasib Anwar, "Consensus Algorithms: The Root Of The Blockchain Technology" The picture above shows 14 relatively mainstream consensus mechanisms summarized by a geek Hasib Anwar, including PoW (Proof of Work), PoS (Proof of Stake), DPoS (Delegated Proof of Stake), LPoS (Lease Proof of Stake), PoET ( Proof of Elapsed Time), PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance), SBFT (Simple Byzantine Fault Tolerance), DBFT (Delegated Byzantine Fault Tolerance), DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph), Proof-of-Activity (Proof of Activity), Proof-of- Importance (Proof of Importance), Proof-of-Capacity (Proof of Capacity), Proof-of-Burn ( Proof of Burn), Proof-of-Weight (Proof of Weight). Next, we will mainly introduce and analyze the top ten consensus mechanisms of the current blockchain. 》POW -Concept: Work proof mechanism. That is, the proof of work means that it takes a certain amount of computer time to confirm the work. -Principle: Figure 7 PoW work proof principle 📷 https://preview.redd.it/xupacdfc4db51.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b6994641f5890804d93dfed9ecfd29308c8e0cc The PoW represented by Bitcoin uses the SHA-256 algorithm function, which is a 256-bit hash algorithm in the password hash function family: Proof of work output = SHA256 (SHA256 (block header)); if (output of proof of work if (output of proof of work >= target value), change the random number, recursive i logic, continue to compare with the target value. New difficulty value = old difficulty value* (time spent by last 2016 blocks /20160 minutes) Target value = maximum target value / difficulty value The maximum target value is a fixed number. If the last 2016 blocks took less than 20160 minutes, then this coefficient will be small, and the target value will be adjusted bigger, if not, the target value will be adjusted smaller. Bitcoin mining difficulty and block generation speed will be inversely proportional to the appropriate adjustment of block generation speed. -Representative applications: BTC, etc. 》POS -Concept: Proof of stake. That is, a mechanism for reaching consensus based on the holding currency. The longer the currency is held, the greater the probability of getting a reward. -Principle: PoS implementation algorithm formula: hash(block_header) = Coin age calculation formula: coinage = number of coins * remaining usage time of coins Among them, coinage means coin age, which means that the older the coin age, the easier it is to get answers. The calculation of the coin age is obtained by multiplying the coins owned by the miner by the remaining usage time of each coin, which also means that the more coins you have, the easier it is to get answers. In this way, pos solves the problem of wasting resources in pow, and miners cannot own 51% coins from the entire network, so it also solves the problem of 51% attacks. -Representative applications: ETH, etc. 》DPoS -Concept: Delegated proof of stake. That is, currency holding investors select super nodes by voting to operate the entire network , similar to the people's congress system. -Principle: The DPOS algorithm is divided into two parts. Elect a group of block producers and schedule production. Election: Only permanent nodes with the right to be elected can be elected, and ultimately only the top N witnesses can be elected. These N individuals must obtain more than 50% of the votes to be successfully elected. In addition, this list will be re-elected at regular intervals. Scheduled production: Under normal circumstances, block producers take turns to generate a block every 3 seconds. Assuming that no producer misses his order, then the chain they produce is bound to be the longest chain. When a witness produces a block, a block needs to be generated every 2s. If the specified time is exceeded, the current witness will lose the right to produce and the right will be transferred to the next witness. Then the witness is not only unpaid, but also may lose his identity. -Representative applications: EOS, etc. 》DPoW -Concept: Delayed proof of work. A new-generation consensus mechanism based on PoB and DPoS. Miners use their own computing power, through the hash algorithm, and finally prove their work, get the corresponding wood, wood is not tradable. After the wood has accumulated to a certain amount, you can go to the burning site to burn the wood. This can achieve a balance between computing power and mining rights. -Principle: In the DPoW-based blockchain, miners are no longer rewarded tokens, but "wood" that can be burned, burning wood. Miners use their own computing power, through the hash algorithm, and finally prove their work, get the corresponding wood, wood is not tradable. After the wood has accumulated to a certain amount, you can go to the burning site to burn the wood. Through a set of algorithms, people who burn more wood or BP or a group of BP can obtain the right to generate blocks in the next event segment, and get rewards (tokens) after successful block generation. Since more than one person may burn wood in a time period, the probability of producing blocks in the next time period is determined by the amount of wood burned by oneself. The more it is burned, the higher the probability of obtaining block rights in the next period. Two node types: notary node and normal node. The 64 notary nodes are elected by the stakeholders of the dPoW blockchain, and the notarized confirmed blocks can be added from the dPoW blockchain to the attached PoW blockchain. Once a block is added, the hash value of the block will be added to the Bitcoin transaction signed by 33 notary nodes, and a hash will be created to the dPow block record of the Bitcoin blockchain. This record has been notarized by most notary nodes in the network. In order to avoid wars on mining between notary nodes, and thereby reduce the efficiency of the network, Komodo designed a mining method that uses a polling mechanism. This method has two operating modes. In the "No Notary" (No Notary) mode, all network nodes can participate in mining, which is similar to the traditional PoW consensus mechanism. In the "Notaries Active" mode, network notaries use a significantly reduced network difficulty rate to mine. In the "Notary Public Activation" mode, each notary public is allowed to mine a block with its current difficulty, while other notary public nodes must use 10 times the difficulty of mining, and all normal nodes use 100 times the difficulty of the notary public node. Figure 8 DPoW operation process without a notary node 📷 https://preview.redd.it/3yuzpemd4db51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3bc2a1c97b13cb861414d3eb23a312b42ea6547 -Representative applications: CelesOS, Komodo, etc. CelesOS Research Institute丨DPoW consensus mechanism-combustible mining and voting 》PBFT -Concept: Practical Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm. That is, the complexity of the algorithm is reduced from exponential to polynomial level, making the Byzantine fault-tolerant algorithm feasible in practical system applications. -Principle: Figure 9 PBFT algorithm principle 📷 https://preview.redd.it/8as7rgre4db51.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=372be730af428f991375146efedd5315926af1ca First, the client sends a request to the master node to call the service operation, and then the master node broadcasts other copies of the request. All copies execute the request and send the result back to the client. The client needs to wait for f+1 different replica nodes to return the same result as the final result of the entire operation. Two qualifications: 1. All nodes must be deterministic. That is to say, the results of the operation must be the same under the same conditions and parameters. 2. All nodes must start from the same status. Under these two limited qualifications, even if there are failed replica nodes, the PBFT algorithm agrees on the total order of execution of all non-failed replica nodes, thereby ensuring security. -Representative applications: Tendermint Consensus, etc. Next Lecture: Chapter 3 Common Consensus Mechanisms (Part 2) + Chapter 4 Consensus Mechanism Selection and Status Summary CelesOS As the first DPOW financial blockchain operating system, CelesOS adopts consensus mechanism 3.0 to break through the "impossible triangle", which can provide high TPS while also allowing for decentralization. Committed to creating a financial blockchain operating system that embraces supervision, providing services for financial institutions and the development of applications on the supervision chain, and formulating a role and consensus ecological supervision layer agreement for supervision. The CelesOS team is dedicated to building a bridge between blockchain and regulatory agencies/financial industry. We believe that only blockchain technology that cooperates with regulators will have a real future. We believe in and contribute to achieving this goal. 📷Website https://www.celesos.com/ 📷Telegram https://t.me/celeschain 📷Twitter https://twitter.com/CelesChain 📷Reddit https://www.reddit.com/useCelesOS 📷Medium https://medium.com/@celesos 📷Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CelesOS1 📷Youtube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1Xsd8wU957D-R8RQVZPfGA
We know the world is crazy, and we’ve been hard at work trying to fix the parts we think we can improve with the UBDI platform. Monetizing data isn’t easy, clients are used to scale at the size of Facebook (1B+), making it difficult for them to understand the value that can derived from just tens of thousands -- especially when their profit comes from reach, engagement and attention as people continuously come back to the platform to view and add information. UBDI’s mission is and will always be empowering people with their data to create a Universal Basic Data Income. Period. End of Story. To get there though, some changes needed to be made. We’re in the process of building (you’ll probably notice some transition states in the app) a safe place where you can anonymously communicate, learn, and earn from your data with communities of people like you. We recognized early on that there were a variety of growing pains that made linking sources burdensome, and led to long wait times for updates, failed data fetches and authorizations (oh man, those authorizations!) and an architecture that was often more confusing than alleviating (like the two app system). So we’ve been working hard to
Mitigate pain-points by:
Linking API’s directly with UBDI (so it can be a one app system, while more easily blocking fraudulent data contributions)
Ensuring this structure continues our mission to legally and technically protect you even from us
Most sources are now integrated and we are waiting on developer approval
Creating anonymous and private social features
Tribes which will allow users to privately communicate in interest groups, using data to amplify the attributes we’re most proud of
Ability to vote and post polls(coming this week) with data analytics so you can see what people like (or unlike) you think about an issue or topic. Initially you will be able to add links and (next week) we will add pictures and video -- so get ready to see lots of pictures of my dog in an animals group
Ability to anonymously comment& respond and soon… generate and choose the public traits and insights you want others to see when you comment like your Call of Duty K/D, when you first invested in Bitcoin, or how much you spend on tacos (coming soon)
More features coming this summer below!
New ways to earn
Imagine if advertisers going to Facebook or Twitter went directly to you! With all your data attributes in one place, we’re creating the best place to shift your attention, while paying you for it!
Continued proof points
We hope this passive engagement and feedback will open up new earning avenues (like personalized offers and ads) which will allow you to earn as you engage. These features will NOT be replacing studies -- in fact, we’re currently running COVID studies with the potential to earn up to $180!
Features coming this summer
Eventually, we’ll utilize the data to create fun competitions that mobilize tribes through the offering of cash awards for running the longest, gaming most, or securing the best returns on your investments.
Notifications so you actually know someone responded to your comments
Data insight stories (we’ll save this as a surprise for you but WE ARE HYPED)
Public vs Private traits on comments to show your clout
Specialized tribes that utilize public apis to generate fun and interactive insights
Reducing payout friction and fees
We’re experimenting/exploring with Uphold: This new wallet will quite literally allow you to trade your data, for gold! We hope this new payout experience would give our domestic and international users the flexibility to cheaply withdraw in the currency, or asset they feel most comfortable holding. Lower fees, better UX-- time will tell.
While opinion data is great, our mission has never been to be a survey app, instead, we have been fighting for individuals to be fairly compensated for the data they generate every day. By adding engaging features, we’re creating more ways for users to be paid for their data, while learning and engaging with other users. We understand that these are BIG changes and that some members may not love them in their early stages. We’ll continue to listen and learn from the community to understand how our new features are being received while we create a system built to last so all of you can thrive. P.S. If you’re having trouble with the app make sure it’s updated to the newest version (we push updates all the time!) We’ve also made this easier to find! If that doesn’t work, you can always shake the app to report the bug to support. https://preview.redd.it/z2r4rv77sk251.png?width=1118&format=png&auto=webp&s=bae5ae04ed14d61d603dd48d409daf51e4002f6e
How smoking weed daily destroyed many life opportunities I had (My story)
Today I celebrate a week without smoking weed after 4.5 years of smoking and 3.5 years smoking daily. Ive been wanting to quit for the longest time but always relasped within a day or two. I started in college, literally 80% of my friends (I had a ton of friends) in college smoked weed. I had alot of hot girls attracted to me in college but missed each chance to fuck or get in a relantionship because id prefer to smoke. It made me anti-social, unmotivated, dull, and emotionless. I missed the chance of having a girlfriend, friends with benefits, dates, and one night stands, living a lonely life. I missed the chance of becoming a millionaire when my friend told me to buy Bitcoin early 2017, I said id look into it. But I didnt, I smoked weed instead and forgot about it until late 2017. Sure I turned 10k into 60k, but my friend turned 10k in 4 million (that could have been me too). He now travels the world, doesnt work a job, and does whatever he wants... In 2018 (last yr of college), id ditch my friends to smoke weed. Id make an excuse at the pregames like "oh I left my wallet ill meet you guys there", but the realty was, I was going home to smoke weed and watch TV (they knew it too). 2019 I had a solid business idea but id smoke when I worked on it. When I finished working on the business, I stopped getting clients because I was worried id be too high/tired to want to deal with clients and give them poor service, so I put the business on hold. One time at the office I almost cried because I realized all of these opportunities that Ive lost. A few months ago ive decided enough is enough and currently celebrating day 7 of not smoking. I havent had any craving and only withdrawal is fatigue 4/7 days. Put the bowl/bong away guys, dont limit your potential. I will never buy weed again and looking forward to feeling back to normal and motivated to accomplishing my goals. Its not too late to accomplish the opportunties ive lost and make them a reality.
The One Thing EVERYONE Must Know About the Dev Funding Plan: IT'S COMPLETELY FREE.
sigh I get so tired of having to stop working to put out a post explaining issues. If anyone else wants to join in I could use help. (actually I've seen Jonald F. do this before too, so thanks JF!) Things are bad when even developers don't understand what's going on. So I'll try to clearly explain an important point on the Dev Funding Plan (DFP from now on) for the community: it's completely free. Yet we still get panicked posts saying Please Save Us from the TAX!!! Somebody Help! You may be for or against the DFP, but either way please at least understand what you're forming an opinion on. Let's start from the beginning. We know Bitcoin works on blocks and block coin rewards. The block reward, which started at 50 coins per block, and cuts in half approximately every 4 years, serves two purposes: it's a fair way to bring coins into circulation, but more importantly it provides security for the network. For simplicity, please think of "security" as being measured in power bars. When the network first started, with just Satoshi and Hal Finney, there was 1 power bar. This power bar was made up of the electricity their combined computer hardware used to find blocks. They were the first miners. Bitcoin uses a difficulty level to adjust how hard or easy it is to find blocks. This level is important for a key reason: we want the inflation rate of coins (how fast they come into circulation) to stay about the same, regardless how many miners (computing power) suddenly comes online. If the difficulty is set at super easy, but suddenly a super computer comes online that computer can gobble up thousands of coins in minutes if not seconds, creating massive rapid inflation. So the first thing to understand is that due to the Difficulty Level Adjustment the rate of coins coming into circulation will always stay about the same, regardless how many miners join or leave the network. Getting back to power bars. So the point of Bitcoin is there is no center, no fixed authority. The problem is we still need a decision made about which chain is valid. This is where proof-of-work comes in. Satoshi's fairly brilliant solution to a consensus decision, with no leader, was to simply look for the longest chain (technically the chain with most hashing work). The reasoning was: as there are far more ordinary people than there are governments and dictators a Bitcoin supported by the all the world's people should always be able to muster more hashrate than even rich governments. So Bitcoin began and people saw the brilliance: even with a weak power bar level of 1 (a couple computers), Bitcoin was safe from 51% attacks and attacking govs competing for control of the chain because a super low hashrate meant Bitcoin wasn't popular and govs wouldn't bother paying attention. By the time Bitcoin was big enough for govs to worry about attacking it should also have so many participants the power bar level would be far higher, providing strong defense. Let's say the ideal power bar level is 50,000. At this level no government on earth has enough resources to beat the grassroots network. We hear people brag about how much security BTC has. However, the marketcap for all of BTC is about $160B. Countries like the U.S. and China have GDP measured in many trillions; a trillion is 1,000 billion. Does 160B really seem untouchable? For numeric comparison the main U.S. federal food assistance program cost the government $70B in 2016, representing about 2% of the budget. So the entirety of the BTC market cap is about twice the size of one welfare program, representing 2% of the overall budget. Where should we place the current security power bars if we want guaranteed safety from a determined U.S. gov? If 50,000 is guaranteed safe we're far from it. I'd say BTC is more like 5,000. That's still pretty decent. Of course, BCH split from BTC... and didn't carry over all the miners and accompanying security. That's not an immediate concern because if BTC isn't on government's radar yet BCH sure isn't. However, that doesn't mean BCH doesn't need security from hostile forces. It's still a valuable network and needs defenses. Where would we put power bars for BCH? If BTC is 5,000 and BCH only has 3% of that hashrate then BCH has just 150. That's it. How the Developer Funding Plan Works Back to the DFP. What this says is as a community we agree to break off a piece of the block reward and instead of giving 100% to miners we give a small percent to developers. If each block is 10 coins and the price is $300 then winning a block means winning $3,000. Of course that's not all profit because miners have electricity and other expenses to pay before calculating profit. So if we reduce the portion of the miner reward by 10% so they get just 9 coins per block yet the price stays the same what happens? It means miners receive $2,700 for the same effort. We've just made it more expensive to mine BCH from the point of view of miners. What would any miner then rationally do? Seek profitability elsewhere if available. Suddenly BTC SHA256 hashing looks slightly more attractive so they'll go there. Hashrate leaves BCH and goes to BTC, but the key important point is BOTH chains have a difficulty adjustment algorithm which adjusts to account for rising or lowering miners overall, which keeps the coin inflation rate steady. This means BTC total hashrate rises (more miners compete for BTC) and its Difficulty Level rises accordingly, so the same rate of BTC pumps out; on BCH total hashrate falls (less miners compete for BCH) and its Difficulty falls, so the same rate of BCH pumps out. Inflation remains about the same on both coins so the price of both coins doesn't change any, beyond what it normally does based on news/events etc. So what difference is there? The difference is total network security. Hashrate totals have changed. BTC gains more miner securing hashrate while BCH loses it. So BTC goes from 5,000 to say 5,100 power bars. BCH goes from about 150 to 140. Does any of that matter in the grand scheme of things? Not in the slightest. Part of the reason is due to our emergency circumstances with BCH we had to rework our security model. Our primary defense is an idea I came up with, which BitcoinABC implemented, saying it's not sheer hashpower that dictates what chain we follow. We won't replace a chain we're working on if a new one suddenly appears if it means changing more than 10 blocks deep of history. This prevents all the threatening hashrate hanging over our heads from mining a secret chain and creating havoc unleashing it causing 10+ confimed txs to be undone, while exchanges, gambling sites etc. have long since paid out real world money. Switching $6M worth of block rewards from mining to devs just means we lose a bit of hashrate security, while we gain those funds for development. Nothing more. Nobody holding BCH pays in the form of inflation or any other way. It costs literally NOTHING BECAUSE The block reward is ALREADY ALLOCATED. It will EITHER go 100% to mining security if we do nothing, or go to both miners and devs if the plan is put into effect. Hopefully this helps. :) TL;DR: we switch security which we don't really need, for developer funding which we do.
Typical Bitcoin forks have a couple of issues Frail security: Double spends On the off chance that the fork utilizes a similar evidence of work, or mining equipment, it's inconsequential for diggers from the bigger unique venture to assault it. Medium BitcoinHEX utilizes the very much tried ERC20 standard to keep away from any of these issues. Powerless advancement: Fewer engineers In principle, a bigger network of engineers will attempt more cool things and complete in excess of a littler network. BitcoinHEX by being an ERC20 token gets full favorable position of the biggest pool of designers in crypto (Ethereum engineers), and the entirety of the cool new innovations they make, for example, appropriated trades, nuclear swaps, and so forth Poor motivator arrangement: Free riders You and your cooperation difficult to make something new and cool, to have a whale wake up one day and glimmer crash the market on you. Why? Free loaders suck. BitcoinHEX "We're all Satoshi" include which gives every unclaimed coin to individuals that claimed at 2% per week more than 50 weeks implies that in under a year, just genuinely invested individuals will hold the token. Out of line dissemination Should the person that lives in china with free power and about free work accessible get most of all the recently stamped coins (expansion)? While expanding centralization, and not wanting to haggle with the journalists of the product they run (center designers.) BitcoinHEX is genuinely circulated to those that advance it through: the 5% referral hold it, through staking, or on the other hand help get the undertaking to minimum amount and appropriation (rewards for cases and guarantee size.) The rich getting more extravagant unreasonably Trades and assets reward themselves while offering nothing to the little folks whose Bitcoin they should be in guardianship of. Trades are something contrary to what Bitcoin was made for. Distributed money. Not companion to trade to peer money. They're large security openings that have l ost a large number of dollars of client reserves. Whales asserting BitcoinHEX are punished 50-75% on the grounds that who actually needs some mammoth trade or store guaranteeing an enormous part of your token to dump on you at their recreation? Punishment triggers from 1k-10k+ coins. Expansion for security Though Bitcoin has expanded its stockpile by 17 million coins over its reality by paying diggers to mine (square rewards.) BitcoinHEX needn't bother with expansion for security. Enough individuals are digging Ethereum for a wide range of reasons that we don't need to pay them BitcoinHEX to do as such. Disparagement of the first A few forks like to imagine they're the genuine article, and not only a duplicate. They do this by having a fundamentally the same as name, logo, and even purchase twitter handles and sites that used to advance the genuine article, to advance the duplicate. In reality a duplicate does best when it separates itself with better highlights, evaluating, or promoting. In the event that your plan of action incorporates claiming to be something you're not, it's a terrible plan of action. BitcoinHEX isn't Satoshi's vision, it's likewise not Bitcoin. It's Bitcoin forked into Ethereum. That has focal points ordinary Bitcoin forks don't. It is amusing to prod different forks when satoshisvision.com focuses to BitcoinHEX.com however Smiley They earned that prodding. Why BitcoinHEX is incredible Low expansion All the cool game hypothesis that quickens appropriation of the undertaking ends in under 1 year. At that point the main expansion in the undertaking originates from individuals that've removed coins from flow by staking. At the point when the main swelling you have is from remunerations to individuals that have trustlessly and safely bolted up their tokens for an extensive stretch of time, that is incredible for esteem. No paying excavators for security with square rewards Conveyance to those well on the way to have been in crypto the longest Simple for trades to coordinate because of recognition and trust of ERC20 standard. Works with appropriated trades no problem at all Works with nuclear swaps no problem at all Most devs in the crypto (Ethereum) Simple case apparatus, asserts all UTXOs in a location without a moment's delay Incredible advertising. Howdy Smiley Low charges. A bitcoinHEX exchange would just cost around 27 pennies or less on 5/24/2018 Scaling arrangements not too far off. Vitalik Buterin has been distributing take a shot at evidence of stake and sharding which could lessen waste and increment exchange limit incredibly. Incredible practice, particularly in the event that you've never encountered the biggest crypto environment and second biggest by marketcap. Advances free discourse. You can transmit your business and financial vitality that used to just exist in the Bitcoin language, in the Ethereum language. Broadens your scope of individuals you can exchange with, talk tokens to. Tokenomics Moment Referral Bonus Individuals you allude get came up with all required funds, and you get a 5% referral reward. Appropriation rewards to stakers (end on 50th week, since all cases will be finished) We're all Satoshi (week after week) Like clockwork a reward equivalent to 2% of unclaimed assets is dispersed to individuals that claimed. Reward topped at 100% of unclaimed tokens. For example, if Satoshi doesn't guarantee, individuals who willed get a reward equivalent to his coins after some time, however not more. Speed Bonus (paid to petitioner on guarantee) Claimable: Balance in addition to [math below] first week 10%< second week (10% x (.95 to the intensity of [week number]) SpeedBonuss Viral Bonus (week by week) The more individuals that guarantee, the bigger the rewards Complete reward upmod (Guarantee % of 1/3 all out conceivable case occasions)/10 Minimum amount Bonus (week by week) The bigger the cases the bigger the rewards. All out reward upmod (Guarantee % of all out potential coins)/10 A debt of gratitude is in order for the rewards Inception contract gets a similar reward you do. Selection rewards to stakers (end on 50th week, since all cases will be finished) Senseless whales Singular cases 1k to 10k+ btc punished 50 to 75% directly scaled before rewards. Goxmenot Gox trustee addresses can't guarantee Typical Staking (Not thought about a reward and doesn't end at 50 weeks) 1% per 10 days. Longer lockup= impetus multiplier Example Time reward: multi day lockup = 129.6% (on the grounds that 3.6 occasions 36%= 129.6%) Time divider As % of profit tokens is bolted up, decreases reward multiplier. In the event that half bolted up at start, at that point multiplier decreased half Early winged creatures get the worms. Guaranteeing A depiction of the Bitcoin UTXO will be taken at square tallness (to be reported after agreement is reviewed). The UTXO set will be smoothed for gas effectiveness, and the Merkle tree foundation of that set will be implanted in an ERC20 token agreement to permit Bitcoin holders to reclaim their tokens. HEX links: Website: https://hex.win/ Twitter page: https://twitter.com/HEXCrypto Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/HEXcrypto Telegram page: https://t.me/HEXcrypto Github: https://github.com/bitcoinHEX Reddit page: https://hexcrypto.reddit.com/ Medium page: https://medium.com/hex-crypto/ Ann: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4523610.0 Author information; Bitcointalk username: Corneafx Bitcointalk profile: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2649614
First, I want to say that I believe that Bitcoin (BTC) will moon and that lambo will rain, for several reasons that I won’t explain here and now. So please don't shit on me or down vote this post without explaining yourself properly. I'm saying this because the crypto community is full of young and emotional person insulting each other all the time without being able to explain their view clearly. I’m just sharing my story and my opinion, if I say something wrong, please let me know. No need to be emotional. My story: I’m French (Forgive my English), a software engineer, working from home, previously in the banking industry, big noob in blockchain code related. I have been supporting bitcoin for a couple of times now, unfortunately I discovered it a bit late, promoting it to people around me as the peer to peer cash system and hoping that it will give us our financial freedom. During this bear market and after losing a big part of my coins, I finally took the time to get a better understanding of each coin I’m holding and I quickly realised that Bitcoin Cash wasn’t a scam, that Bitcoin BTC is purely a speculative asset, the playground of professional traders, used to rekt noobs and that Lightning network will end as custodial wallets because no one will take the time/risk for opening/closing/securing a channel, especially poor people (few billions). There is no benefit for the average user in maintaining a LN node. I believe it will be more interesting to mine Bitcoin rather than maintaining a LN node. So basically, I lost faith in the promise made by the Lightning Network which made me focusing on why Bitcoin Cash is the answer to a decentralized peer-to peer electronic cash system. I can confess that in the past I used to believe that second layer solution was the solution for everything, but I changed my mind. To make it simple, BCH allows to make instant payment for very cheap whereas BTC can’t and won’t. For each crypto project, I look at those different points: 1. Length of the chain BTC and BCH are sharing the longest chain, it has been working well without any issues since now 10 years. No other project has such a good track record. This make me feel confident that the chance that this will continue to work as well for years or decades. 2. Community behind it A good community for me is when you see technical people, risking their reputation/identity by posting videos, writing stuff and talking in public events about the project they support. Based on that, I believe the BCH community is the biggest of all. By technical people I mean someone talking using technical approach to back their opinion rather than beliefs based on emotions. Usually in the crypto space, those people are developers but it’s not always the case. I made a small list of technical people supporting BCH: -Peter R. Rizun: Chief Scientist, Bitcoin Unlimited. -Vitalik Butterin (he often showed his support regarding BCH but didn’t produce any content) -Jonald Fyookball: Electron Cash Developer -Jonathan Toomim: Bitcoin cash developer who made interesting proof regarding scaling onchain) -George Hotz: no need to present this awesome crazy dude! -Amaury Séchet: Bitcoin Cash Developer and French! 😊 -Rick Falkvinge: Founder of the swedish pirate party, watch his youtube channel. -Gabriel Cardona (Bitcoin cash developer) -Justin Bons : Founder & CIO of Cyber Capital -Dr. Mark B. Lundeberg: Developer researcher And there is a lot more, but those people are people that I personally trust for their work they shared and that I like following. Recently we had the Bitcoin cash city conference, another event full of people supporting BCH, that kind of thing doesn’t happen with other crypto. So many brilliant people supporting BCH, how could it be possible that all those guys are supporting a scam or a shitcoin. As well, there is often meetups and conferences all over the world. The developer community is not centralized, there is multiple teams (BitcoinABC, Bitcoin Unlimited, BCHD, Bcash, Bitcoin Verde…) independent of each other arguing sometimes about technical and political stuff, this ensure that developments and important decisions are not centralized. I find this very healthy. If a fork occurs, it’s not a problem, it will simply double your coin and allows two different ways of thinking to grow and compete. This won’t happen in Bitcoin (BTC) anymore, the way of thinking is centralized for BTC, they all share the same view: the segwit workaround + small block + layer 2 = (moon + lambo) in 18 months. Regarding CSW, I don’t believe in this guy for now but maybe I’m wrong, maybe this guy is wrongly understood but based on all the things I know about him, he seems too complicated to be someone honest. Honesty comes with simplicity. Finally, regarding Roger Ver: He is hated a lot and I still don't understand why, I feel sorry for him, I really tried my best to hate him like the crowd, but I couldn’t find any reasons. Many people are saying that he is lying and scamming people but none of them are technically able to explain why. It's really a crazy story and I understand why some people call him "Bitcoin Jesus". I personally think he is doing a great job and I thank him. 3. The current and future adoption BCH is used by reel people and reel shops (check the bitcoin cash map), there are transactions on the network to buy and sell real things that exist in the real world. Can you believe this? Maybe the only blockchain having that. Please let me know if you know another blockchain which is today serving the real world. The Bitcoin cash wallet app is easy and exciting to use. Same for the app for merchant. This can be used by my old mum! The BCH roadmap shows that more features will be added to simplify and enhance the user experience. I can’t find other blockchain having that level of user friendliness. Recently Roger Ver announced HTC mobile phone with a BCH wallet preinstalled. I read as well that Burger King is accepting BCH, but I haven’t verified if this was legit or not. 4. Existing features and roadmap -Multiple wallets built on all platform. -Bitcoin Cash point of sales: this app is the app that merchant should use to accept Bitcoin, as well very easy to use and takes 5min to install. -Cash shuffle with Cash fusion allowing to transact anonymously, making BCH competing with privacy focused coins such like Zcash, Monero, Dash. I heard this function will be implemented as well on mobile devices. -SLP token: The simplicity of creating a token and sending dividends make BCH a bit competing with all smart blockchain. Anyone can create a token, raise funds and send dividends easily and it works! Will Bitcoin Cash evolve to a smart economy? -memo.cash: A social network stored on the blockchain, fixing the problem of censorship we have on reddit for example. I recently discovered it, it’s awesome to know that you can write whatever you want, and nobody will be able to delete it and this forever. It’s really an awesome experience. I invite you to test it. For example, yesterday I had fun creating, sending token and being tipped in BCH or in any token by random people, it really shows the potential of BCH. I think I made around 50 on chain transactions in less than one hour with less than 10 cents. -Stable coins: We can build stable coin on BCH; this is something very important as well. Regarding the roadmap: It’s well described on bitcoincash.org and looks promising, but no update since the last 5 months. Not sure if it’s normal. 5. Security SHA256 based algorithm are I believe the most secure, I don’t think we need to add more regarding this. Maybe someone can help me to find some downside regarding security, often some people talk about the potential 51% attack that could occurs on BCH but I couldn’t manage to have my own opinion regarding this. Regarding the double spending attack because of the zero confirmation, I have asked many people to explain to me how this could potentially be a problem for a real merchant. I think that small and insignificant amount doesn’t need instant confirmation but if you sell a lambo then of course you should wait for at least 5 confirmations. To summarize I would even consider that zero conf is more advantageous than Lightning Network if you take everything into consideration. Worth case scenario if your restaurant is victim of a double spending attack a few times, you will just increase the confirmation level and prevent your customer from living your place. I think that it’s easier to print fake fiat money and try to pay with it rather than trying a double spending attack. But again, I might have misunderstood something or maybe there is more sophisticated exploits that I haven’t thought of. 6. Price 21 million coins, no inflation, the price currently around 300usd, a boiling community. The potential gains could be as good as BTC and even more. Maybe it’s the so waited coin that you will never convert back to that shit fiat. Certainly, one of the best coins to invest in now. 7. Electricity and efficiency Since the cost of electricity is the same whatever the size of the block, it means that BCH is more environment friendly than BTC for the same amount of transaction or we can say that it’s "wasting" less energy. Maybe if LN works one day this will change. My Conclusion: Bitcoin is technically the worst coin; all others existing coins are better technically. But Bitcoin survives because of the network effect, illustrated by its biggest hash rate, making BTC the most secure blockchain. As well because of promises made by the Lightning Network. Bitcoin is the gold of crypto currencies. Bitcoin like Gold have both almost no utility. In a traditional market, gold drop when economy goes well and goes up when investors need to find a refuge. BTC is the drop zone for fresh meat. Most of the BTC holders cannot think clearly regarding the BTC/BCH debate, they become completely irrational. This kind of behaviour leads to ruin, especially in trading/investment.With low fees, instant transaction, smart contracts, big community, user friendly apps, stable coin and a lot more to come, Bitcoin Cash has clearly a good future. I hope that someone will find my post useful. Cheers.
Upon the Fortune of this Present Year | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - November 2019
My ventures are not in one bottom trusted, Nor to one place; nor is my whole estate Upon the fortune of this present year Therefore my merchandise makes me not sad Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice (1596) This is my thirty-sixth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals. Portfolio goals My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a passive income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) - Achieved
$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $797 618 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 218 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 294 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 367 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $158 769 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $28 471 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $268 114 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 057 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $9 996 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 100 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $98 376 Secured physical gold – $15 868 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $16 915 Bitcoin – $128 630 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 535 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 377 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 418 Total portfolio value: $1 793 753 (+$33 713) Asset allocation Australian shares – 43.2% (1.8% under) Global shares – 22.9% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.2% Total international shares – 28.4% (1.6% under) Total shares – 71.6% (3.4% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 9.8% Total bonds – 14.6% (0.4% under) Gold – 6.4% Bitcoin – 7.2% Gold and alternatives – 13.5% (3.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments This month the value of the portfolio increased again by around $33 000 in total, building on the previous two months of growth. [Chart] The equity part of the portfolio has grown by around $50 000 to now reach over $1.25 million for the first time. This increase includes new contributions and the last part of the previous June distributions being 'averaged into' equity markets. The equity component of the portfolio has increased by around 40 per cent this calendar year. The only other major movement in the monthly value of the portfolio has been a sharp downward movement in the price of Bitcoin, and a small increase in the value of bond holdings. [Chart] The contributions this month went entirely into the Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS.ASX), to reduce the gap to both the overall target equity allocation, and to achieve the target split between Australian and global shares. From this month onwards I expect more regular variations in whether new contributions go to either Australian or global shares, based on keeping this target allocation constant. Charting errors and wrong bearings - the nature of long-term returns Over the last month, as the end destination starts to appear a little clearer in the distance, the issue of the nature of long-term returns has been front of mind. There is a strong literature and body of academic work around long-term equity return expectations. Much of this has informed my thinking, and has over time found its way into the corners of financial independence movement through the avenues of the so-called Trinity and Bengen '4 per cent' studies (pdf), and a range of calculators that use historical data to help guide investors expectations around feasible future returns. Yet, as I have noted before, future states of the world are not drawn from the same distribution as the past - or as the British writer G K Chesterton evocatively put it - 'wildness lies in wait'. Most often this issue is glided over neatly (including by myself) with assured sounding phrases such as 'based on history'. The works of Nassim Taleb, most particularly Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan, provide a fuller perspective on these issues. Recently though, reading a 2017 paper Stock Market Charts You Never Saw provided a unique and arresting view of their application to long-term return projections. The paper is long and detailed, but makes some fundamental points for consideration. It provides a challenging perspective on investment returns that falls almost completely out of mainstream discussions of the topic in the financial independence arena. To summarise, the paper highlights that:
Long-term average equity returns are just mean averages - While they have a stable property over the long-term, this is an inherent statistical property of these values being long-term averages of diverse sets of returns. They are not a reliable forward-looking promise of likely returns. In the words of the paper: 'history documents, but does not constrain'.
Time (in the market) does not always heal all wounds - Investors who spend their dividends and avoid market timing - in other words an average FI investor - can reasonably expect to encounter 30 year periods of low real returns, with US investors facing three such periods in the twentieth century alone.
Typical charts of long-term equity returns can be misleading - Through behavioural finance findings it is clear that presented with a chart showing a seemingly inevitable rising line of equity returns over a long-time frame, an impression of safety and inevitability can be created. The paper highlights a range of ways in which standard charts on equity returns can obscure important facets of investors actual experiences.
No investor actually experiences the longest set of historical returns - While it is comforting to know that equity returns have averaged (for example) six per cent over a century, or two, this information is not as relevant for an investor who is more likely to be invested in a discrete 30-50 year period in which deviations from historical averages can be significant.
One-off events should not be dismissed - While the temptation is continuously present to believe that events like the Great Depression could never happen again, careful review of equity returns yields some distinctly similar periods of sustained low or negative real returns.
Comparisons of bond and equity returns are often oversimplified - It is not an immutable truth that equities outperform bonds, at least when the US historical record is considered. Rather, a more complicated picture emerges of returns over long periods. Sometimes, equities have outperformed bonds, but at other times, bonds have out-performed equites.
As the paper notes: "When investment advisors counsel that stocks are the best bet for a long investment horizon, they should append the acknowledgement: “if my market timing is good.” When advisors argue for stocks over bonds, they should append the caveat “as long as you are not French, or Italian, or Japanese, or Swiss, and provided that the 20th century is a better guide to the future than the 19th century.” For real investors with their limited time horizons, who may reside anywhere in the world, there have been times when both stock recommendations were bad." The issue of the primacy of total returns, compared to income returns is also bracingly challenged with reference to the drawdown phase: Once portfolio accumulation ceases with retirement, portfolio income must be spent to live. Under those circumstances real price return, over short periods lasting two or three decades, becomes an important metric. By that measure, an investment in stocks has been dicey indeed. Usefully, the paper sets out (at the end) both conventional charts, and alternative representations of the same returns data, aimed at illustrating the hidden biases and properties of standard charts of market returns. In short, the paper poses challenges to many conventional investment tenets assumed to be true and widely repeated within financial independence discussions. Often these tenets are promoted with the sound and well-meaning goal of reducing new or existing investors caution or level of worry around possible falls in equity markets. The question this work implicitly poses is, in the process, are distorted expectations unintentionally being promoted? Drawing out the lessons - understanding and responding to risks What are the practical implications of this? The most obvious is to look closely at how data is presented and to think carefully about how the assumptions implicit in that presentation line up against ones own situation. Some other implications include:
Projections based on earning stable and uniform returns should be undertaken with caution - Multi-decade periods of low returns can happen, and mathematical models of compounding smooth returns don't capture their impacts.
By taking an equity position an investor is simply undertaking a probabilistic bet, with no guarantees - That is, equity investment over the long-term usually pays offs, but some risk is inescapable.
Diversification across markets and time represents a workable response to risk - Investing regularly and across geographic markets can help current investors capture some of the positive 'survivorship' bias that was denied to individual investors in many countries across the twentieth century.
In other words - to paraphrase Shakespeare's Antonio - not trusting ones ventures to one ship, place, or a fortune upon the present year. Progress Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 112.2% 153.0% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 90.6% 123.5% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 103.0% 140.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 84.5% 115.1% Summary As the year begins to draw to a close, a restlessness to see its final outcomes, in dividends and portfolio growth presses itself forward. It is in fact a small echo of one of the strong temptations of the middle of the FI journey - a desire to wish away time itself. Some potential upcoming changes and uncertainties in work situation have added force to this temptation, forcing some thoughts about different potential balances between work and other elements of daily life could be. By distance, the intended journey is around ninety per cent over. At times this introduces both an elegiac quality to, and a premature desire to mark, possible 'lasts' along the journey. Yet the extraordinary current state of financial markets gives pause. Policy makers and advisors casually discuss negative rates and their implications, even as Australian and US equity markets hit new highs. In a sense, it feels a more psychologically testing time to be closer to my higher target allocation for equities than any time before. The diversification in the portfolio can be thought of as a series of small hedges against different potential futures playing out. By far, the largest probability (or potential future) at 75 per cent, is that the historical dominance of equity as a generator of real returns continues to function. The remainder of the portfolio can be seen in some ways as a offsetting hedge against large equity market falls, or some other disturbance in financial markets with negative implications for equity. At base, however, I remain comfortable with the 'balance of probabilities' implied in the target asset allocation. This month saw a new (v)blogger Mx Lauren join the Australian FI scene, as well as the suggestion by Money Magazine of a new 'simplified' retirement rule of thumb to consider. A further piece of fascinating reading was this piece by Ben Carlson in Fortune Magazine, explaining the key role of earnings growth in recent US market return. It posits that the recent strong performance of US equities is attributable to fundamental earnings growth, rather than simply an unjustified expansion in the price investors are willing to pay for that growth. This - in addition to Shakespeare's pre-modern enjoinment to diversify - is potentially another reason to not confine considerations to one market, and one place, as December distributions slowly drift into sight. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
I "purchased" an Index in 2019 when they were still in stock and now may not get one until after summer, Valves customer service has been no help
As the title says this is the ridiculousness I've been dealing with for months so if you are stuck in shipping limbo keep your hopes up but with the manufacturing issues and COVID-19 expect things to take even longer. Here has been the story of my current ordeal in trying to get an index. My issues has been a little more confusing and I had posted earlier wondering if I was even talking to a real person when I tired to contact Valve. Hopefully what I have gone through will help people feel a bit better about the fact that they simply have to wait. Overall I do hope to get am Index it just feels like everything has conspired to hold me back. I have wanted VR for the longest time and have been excited to where the technology is heading, I got a chance to try out an occulous dev kit years ago and have been saving my money. I work supply for the school board teaching kids and trying to make some extra cash int he summer, as supply I'm never guaranteed work yet I made ends meet and had a plan. Come December and the plan was if I would receive some of the cost as a combo Christmas and Birthday gift. I found somebody selling a vive headset and sensors and was able to try it out and was very impressed and really wanted the knuckles and would save money getting the headset which would be more affordable. I had also managed to same some money on a new video card on ebay I'm assuming formerly used for bitcoin but it's working great. However, half life had been announced and things were selling out quick.. the only thing really available was the full index set and we decided to go for it,, had I known what I know now how long I would wait I would have picked up the vive parts to save money but they are long gone. Mid December index was ordered and things looked great, order was in process or so I thought the money was charged to my Mastercard and just figured there were stock issues and I was patient. by January my order disappeared and went from in process to entirely gone, I had noticed because I had a positive balance on my credit card when I went to pay my bill. I found the order in my steam account and using it sent a message to steam customer support. I had hoped to get to the bottom of it but constantly the response to my questions were to keep and eye on the index page and click notify me, I wanted to know why my index was canceled. Each time we tried to be clear what I was asking I was told to click notify me. I finally got a different response to said that my order failed to complete successfully. I asked why I was charged then and was told that I was not charged just a hold on my credit card but I knew it was a charge and was getting frustrated. I was told that regardless they were sure I would get an index on the day they were available and if I had an issue they would be happy to assist me. This was the first bit of better news, in Ontario we've had some problems with the provincial government and educators like myself have been on strike quite a bit and there has been less supply work so money was getting a bit tight but I was still doing ok. I also managed to send screenshots of my banking to show the charged and refund which they did admit was confusing. My birthday in February came and went and I was in a bit of limbo waiting to hear back from Steam with an answer to what happened. March 9th yet another setback, and unexpected expense I had cracked my molar on the weekend and went to the dentist in the morning. I was back before the index would be on sale at 1:00 local time for me. Hitting refresh as the clock ticked over I was able to hit the order button within 2 seconds and was greeted with a page telling me they were already out of stock. I'm back to having an index up in the in process orders section which is where my problems started before, only this time I have not entered my shipping or credit info. I was first greeted with a 5-7 week window it at least now says 3-5 weeks.. again I was annoyed but at least hopeful I was in some sort of cue.. I did try to contact customer support again because I was told if I don't get one on the day they could assist me however the response is just a link to the index order FAQ page. Thanks again Valve support :/ The final blow comes today.. COVID-19 has made things worse and through all of this I have never had an issue with the lack of supply or problems with manufacturing just that Valve messed up my order, charged me and refunded me and say they have no record of it. That and the generic response that never answered my questions. So today while driving to work I hear on the radio the provincial government has decided to extend March Break two weeks, I only got a half day shift today and now need to stretch that for an extra two weeks. Nobody knew about this, principals were not notified they also found out originally on the news. As a supply I only get paid for shifts I'm called to and after this long break I may have arrived at my 3-5 week window (assuming things are not canceled again) and I'll have to do some number crunching in the meantime to see where I'm at, if I can't swing it at the moment I may forfeit my place in the cue and have to try again in the summer, it is something I'll get regardless, as much as a painful experience this has been it's something I really want the product looks amazing I just wish the actual process had gone a bit smoother. I had bought some VR games around Christmas sales in excited anticipation they sit in my library mocking me. So cheer up everyone, chances are you'll have to wait a bit, and the current issues with Covid may cause it to be even longer than you would like but you'll get yours,, I'll get mine and if waiting is the hardest part of your experience then you know there are other's having it worse than you,, fingers crossed we all at least have our health.
Right Ok I’m going to kinda make this short and simple but I will add everyone real name and honestly I don’t give a fuck any more I want to leave this chaos of a mess my family started. My name is Antonio Preciado IV, I’m 28 years old and I fed up with this whole thing that is suppose to make me a better person when I can tell everyone around me is fucking hipcrits. Yes, I will say it again most of the immediate people in my life are hipcrits that make their own narrative to accompany with my story. I asked a friend 2 years ago what if someone became so rich so fast no one knew how to tell him and there is suppose to be ways of the game but I’m going to break it because my entire family undermines and controls my life while making their own narrative that I’m to become a better person and make my own money because they don’t like my cynical thoughts yes I said thoughts don’t fucking spit your water up. By making my own money is handing me off to be other peoples problem. Won’t get into details but I am pretty sure that my family is hiding my investments or already allotted them to other accounts maybe it was my friend who I was sleeping with for 3 years because she still fucking him and whoever else I’ve seen the proof along with the fact she has had access to a lot of my personal information. Not only that my baby’s mom I have under suspicion. My entire identity has been stolen but not nessassary taken because what if your family thought it was a good idea to plan your life for you and you fucked up in life at times so now they hold it above my head and hate me because I’m calling them out, well written about it for 2 years over and over every time they only treat me like a fucking child. Mention anything about crypto currencies, stocks, bonds , ira, and investments. My family acts as if acid came through the air and they change subjects along with the idea that I have a gift of communication audio and visually but that is way too paranormal to talk about but mother Fuckers talk about all the time. Well mainly in sources I find at times. Another thing that happens is when I’m in this state of mind people like to send me on Lil treasure hunts so they can see me act like a child for their entertainment. Hey puppy I think your bone can be in mrs. Yvonne yard, maybe you need to take a walk. Honestly, I don’t want to be around them anymore or at least for a while. Do my own shit if you were set up to have something by the age of 25 with a ira or stock and you also had made a very lucky allotment in a thing called bitcoin but that could of disappear. My family is in full control of it and because they are family they have tormented my thoughts and made myself and others think or second guess ourselves. I know that everything was first in good faith but how are some of the things that are done not worst or equal to my sins. Also they want to force Jesus in my life and tell me that everything going to be ok. While I have noticed everyone around has more shit to hide that me like not a lil this or that but they got real shit to hide. Fakest shit I can feel. Living a life of control, humiliation and longest running joke has taken its toll. Many say fuck if I were him I do it like this or I would have done this. Then there is me and I’m the biggest dumb ass that my family ever seems to see. I noticed that they envy me absolutely at this point hate me. What I can tell is it’s in good faith. I’m 28 years old and I have not once brought up this topic but written about it and I k ow they know. They accuse me wanting to collect money from them and being a spoiled grown ass man and need to deal with the real world. Fictitious names are on the Forbes list and media especially journalism these days. I’ve heard countless stories like mine and I know there was something I’m a wealthy bastard. Investments require the most minimal work and effort that any one could do it. I know some of these things have to be true because I’m 28 year old billionaire that has accounts that are enormous. The truth is my own people hate me I’m blessed and they are cursed because they won’t budge to anything. I have recently noticed that I’m dealing with others baggage and I don’t have to do this any more. We can sit down with some lawyers and make better decisions for all of us but they don’t My name is tone pretty sure you guys all know this shit already
Why You Should Hold at Least 30% Gold in Your Portfolio
Dennis Gartman, the former editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, recommends investors hold at least 30% gold in their portfolio. He made these comments in an interview with a panel of investors by a leading gold news outlet, Kitco News. The particular question was how they would invest $100,000 in the coming decade. Gartman described his approach as follows: “For the next decade I’d hold 30% in gold of some form; I’d hold 30% in various closed-end bond funds that pay dividends monthly (there are dozens of them!); I’d hold 30% in commodity-related businesses; and the final 10%, I’d hold in Emerging market ETFs.” The US economy is closing the decade on a pretty firm footing. The S&P market index is experiencing its longest bull run in history, being up 184% since 2010. However, the global economy is awash with uncertainty that caused some hiccups in 2019. Interestingly, gold is attracting keen interest, even with a rallying stock market. Prices may be lower than record highs in 2011, but holding gold is still extremely lucrative. The precious metal looks to end the decade with a gain of 34%. Such a paradigm is not conventional in the modern history of stocks and asset investments. To have a big year in both stocks and defensive safe-haven assets is quite unusual. Both cautious and aggressive investors can claim victory from how the year has panned out. However, hedge funds bore the brunt of this extraordinary market as many bullish strategies got clobbered from the upheaval. This dynamic points at a market with more temperamental liquidity than previously thought. Bank of America has released an insightful analysis titled, “The World’s Most Liquid Stock Market Is Now as illiquid as it was in the 2008 Crisis.”
2020 Gold Outlook
Gartman has left his position at the famed Gartman Letter after 30 years. His experience gives him a unique perspective on this market. He sees gold as a vital part of portfolio diversification in the coming year. A significant trend will be the return to commodity markets as inflationary pressures return. The expansionary policies and low-interest regimes of most prominent central banks are a massive reason for this. In its last meeting of the year, the US Federal Reserve confirmed that it would not raise interest rates soon. President Trump relies on economic growth as his signature achievement heading into a reelection year. Even though the FED is an independent agency, Trump’s relentless attacks on chair Jay Powell have had some effect in the recent past. Trump is never hesitant to go on Twitter to remind everyone that the S&P 500 has broken its record highs at least 135 times since his election. Therefore, the expansionist policies that facilitate cheap money flowing into the economy will likely hold through 2020. As for the stock market’s bull run, Gartman takes the cautious position that a bull run ends when it does. Accurately forecasting the next downturn is not a walk in the park. This new decade may continue the optimism that the last has finished with. On the other hand, trade tensions still cast a cloud over next year’s forecast. Trade talks between the US and China are still in progress. Interestingly, investors were not as impressed with the Phase 1 agreement of the US-China trade deal as many expected. Gold prices held up as investors await news of the second phase of the trade deal. These uncertainty triggers will play a significant role in shaping 2020 economic performance. Brexit and EU growth stagnation are other significant factors to watch for. The market is operating as though these events are in the past, but their ripple effects can still rock stock markets in 2020.
Consumer Price Inflation
The US has a historic economy, yet is on the cusp of rerunning a trillion-dollar deficit. You have to go back to 2009 and a few years after to find such a period of spending. Former FED chair Alan Greenspan contends that this phenomenon will eventually lead to an exponential inflation rise. Speaking to CNBC, Greenspan stated that he is worried about US consumer price inflation. There is a lot of merit to such a sentiment. After all, the easy monetary policies and a reaccelerating economy set the stage for higher commodity prices. However, it is not easy to forecast a tipping point for inflation in the short-term. The markets don’t seem to be as worried about the ballooning deficit as hawkish analysts are. It remains to be seen whether the low unemployment and positive outcome of trade deals will stem this tide in 2020.
The Current Status of Gold
Even though the stock market has had a historic bull run, gold has had a strong rally of its own. This run is reminiscent of the 2011 cycle when gold prices looked to cross the watershed $2,000 mark before dissipating. Incredibly, this period is not a global recession like the last time gold prices were this high. Gold is traditionally a defensive asset. Its strong performance in a great year for stocks shows that there is more to the story than meets the eye. The low-interest era means that a lot of money will be flowing in the economy. Naturally, such a glut lowers the value of fiat, indicating that stable assets like gold and Bitcoin are more attractive as a store of value. Gold has risen past the $1,500 mark in recent days of trading. This latest rise is consistent with 2019 patterns, which have seen gold spot prices rise over 15%. Remarkably, this solid price is occurring at a time of historic stock runs. The end of the current bull run is challenging to predict. However, in the event of such misfortune, gold is the right investment to absorb shock in your portfolio. Gold prices are not affected negatively by slides in the stock market. Additionally, scarcity and consistency place gold at a higher value than other real assets.
Investors Adding Gold to Their Portfolios
A recent Kitco News report shows that big speculators have rebuilt bullish positions in gold futures. The analysis relies on data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from the most recent reporting week. CFTC data capture activity, namely short and long positions on gold. In the most recent data, net long positions of fund managers rose to 201721 from 183648. The figures captured trends up to December 17. Long positions are contracts guaranteeing the purchase of gold at a specific price in the future. Such an increase is indicative of positive sentiment about gold prices rising in the coming weeks of trading. Much of the bullish sentiment around gold is because of the FED’s confirmation that it would not raise rates soon. The FED’s dovish sentiment despite the already strong economy was enough to channel wind into gold’s sails. Accordingly, investors are hedging against inflation in the near future. Traders have multiple ways to add gold to their holdings. Other than holding bullion, they can invest in gold-backed ETFs. With the option of tokenized gold trading in the market, investors can hold bullion without the inconvenience of storage or security. Moreover, there is always the possibility that stocks can tumble from their record highs. In such a scenario, gold is the perfect safe-haven. Gold is the most stable of all assets, and the tailwind from such an event would be massive. In summary, holding about 30% gold in your portfolio is not only a safe strategy but also one that can have a tremendous upside. With a robust gold market to close out 2019, the next decade looks set to begin with a prolonged gold bull run. The likes of Ray Dalio certainly understand this dynamic. Gold is no longer an old-school doomsday asset but rather a core part of the modern financial world. Its ceiling could be very high.
The world economy is on the verge of crisis again, cryptocurrencies will be strong
Vulnerability refers to the property that things are vulnerable to damage when faced with fluctuations. -Nassim Nicholas Taleb In the face of economic fluctuations, it is disadvantageous to hold such a negative view. Every capital market has its own life cycle, which inevitably goes through a process from growth, to peak, and then to recession. Now is no exception. As we emerge from the longest bull market in history, we suddenly find ourselves in a highly vulnerable global economy facing the panicked and perplexed planet unprepared. However, the turmoil has just begun. Newton's first law, also known as "the law of inertia", means that any object must maintain a constant linear motion or standstill until an external force forces it to change its state of motion. Although this analogy does not perfectly correspond to the capital market (because the market is always changing and developing in different directions), at least one thing is certain that under the action of the market mechanism, the market cycle always appears Trend from peak to valley. The music box winds up, and the performance of the song sounds, and then it stops after a while. When this happens, the market structure collapses, eventually leading to huge chaos, and then falling into silence. Once external forces force the entire economy into trouble, people will realize the long-standing hidden structural defects in the economy. Now, the world economy is on the verge of crisis again. All human beings have to face a sudden outbreak of a global epidemic and the resulting shocks in supply and demand in the market. The economies of some countries have stalled. Ironically, the effects of inertia may be prevalent in market fluctuations. While witnessing the development of the global economy, we still find two simultaneous macro trends: --1-- USD strong We believe that the strong US dollar is driven by three factors: Investors turn to safe assets: Despite the Fed ’s interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus policies, the market ’s increasing demand for the US dollar has pushed up the US dollar index and hit a new high in 18 years. US Dollar Financing Issues: Cross-currency basis swaps measure that investors are more inclined to hold the US dollar than the euro or the yen. On March 17, the euro-dollar basis swap swap premium expanded from -60 basis points to -120 basis points, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the Euro-US dollar basis swap has rapidly dropped to about -27 basis points, while the US dollar-Japanese yen basis swap has expanded to -70 basis points. Negative basis points indicate greater pressure on the dollar and higher hedging costs for European and Japanese investors. The reality is that U.S. banks, which are the main source of funding for the U.S. dollar, are storing large amounts of cash instead of actively issuing short-term U.S. dollar loans to foreign banks. Due to recent pressure from the balance sheet, more and more U.S. banks are beginning to reduce credit lines to retain cash. In addition, many foreign banks that lack direct access to the US dollar market can only rely on central bank liquidity swaps for financing. This week, the Fed and several other central banks opened new liquidity swap tools, providing USD 30 billion to USD 60 billion of liquidity, respectively, to ease pressure on USD financing. Central banks in emerging market countries are taking urgent steps and lowering their benchmark interest rates: Emerging market investors are very worried about the stability of their currencies and are pouring into the dollar market. According to Bloomberg, all major emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar on January 20, just as the new crown virus began to spread in Asia. ——2—— Treasury liquidity tightening Abnormally performing credit markets: In general, price fluctuations will prompt investors to switch from risky assets (such as stocks) to safe-haven assets (such as bonds). This was indeed the case when the new coronavirus was causing panic. However, the current despair of liquidity (especially cash) by market investors has led to a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, falling bond prices and rising interest rates. Repurchase market: The Federal Reserve's rescue measures have not brought the expected results. In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced three repurchases and other measures to release liquidity, hoping to ease the current state of the US Treasury market and reduce the inventory of primary dealers. However, market demand for government bonds remains sluggish. Let's turn our eyes from the home of the macro economy to the cryptocurrency market. Although they are not necessarily related, we find that the two are closely related. In the face of volatility, it is particularly important to develop a price action strategy. The CBOE-VIX index, an indicator that predicts the trend of the S & P 500 in the next 30 days, has surged to its highest level since the last global financial crisis. At the same time, we also saw that the 90-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options rose to 6.8% (annualized 130%), which is about 5.9% (annualized 113%) this weekend. As the "Black Thursday" on March 12th, BTC was down 40% and ETH was down 50%, some leveraged positions were forced to close. According to reports, BitMEX alone closed USD 700 million worth of long and short positions. At the same time, the sell-off of ETH dropped the value of the DeFi ecosystem by 40%. The total amount of collateral liquidation of Compound, dYdX and Maker and other lending platforms reached US $ 10 million. But in this turbulent market, not all assets perform so badly. Although the price of BTC, like the stock market at the beginning, plummeted, falling by 60% from the high price in mid-February, it rebounded by about 50% from the price low on March 12. Over the past period, we have found a large amount of funds flowing from altcoins to BTC. With the spot premium (the spot price is higher than the futures price), the demand for bitcoin lending has increased. The effective fund interest rate also gradually returned to normal as the curve was inverted. In contrast, when futures are at a premium (the futures price is higher than the spot price), there is almost no demand for BTC's lending transactions. At present, the BTC funding rate on various lending platforms has increased from 3-5% to 8%, and the ETH funding rate has increased from 2-4% to 6%. ——3—— Floating profit stablecoin market Since February 14, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with a market value of $ 45 billion evaporated. At the same time, the market value of USDT has risen to nearly $ 5 billion. USDT has emerged from this market volatility and has become a safe-haven asset. This week, the premium rate of USDT prices in China and South Korea is as high as 7%, which is caused by the demand of payment service providers and arbitrage traders. The current over-the-counter USDT supply exceeds supply. At the same time, the market value of USDC climbed to US $ 630 million, a record high. The market value of BUSD is exceeding the US $ 150 million mark, mainly due to the surge in demand for Binance's borrowing and margin trading. ——4—— Near-term outlook We pay close attention to the changing macroeconomic trends and the successive monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments around the world. Although we cannot predict the specific trend of the market, we still believe that cryptocurrency as an asset class will be strong. In a nutshell, we think: ● Due to the recent sell-off in the market, the value of positions has shrunk sharply, making the distribution of positions in the market clearer. ● With the exit of market makers, the spread between major exchanges has brought more market arbitrage opportunities for retail traders. In particular, the derivatives market (futures and perpetual swaps) has seen a significant discount compared to the spot market, which has pushed up BTC's lending rate. ● By hedging the spot and long futures, market participants can carry out arbitrage trading, which is completely contrary to the market situation we saw last year (the futures price is significantly higher than the spot). ● Over the past six months, trading activities in the options market have grown rapidly. We expect that trading activities in the options market will continue to grow. ● At present, on our platform, institutional clients such as hedge funds, arbitrage traders, crypto companies, etc. have all bought a lot of BTC and USDT. Market volatility is part of investment. We believe that after a period of time, the economy will re-enter the upward trajectory, please let us work together for it.
Investment Decisions: Bitcoin or Other Cryptocurrencies?
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy Many investors are facing the decision of whether to allocate some exposures to bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. The purpose of this article is to clarify those differences and highlight the reasons why bitcoin has become an emerging asset class that can no longer be ignored. Bitcoin is invented as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system without the need of going through a third party financial institution1. Since 2009, the Bitcoin network started the longest running blockchain that ensures high security and prevents double-spending. Since then, there are many other cryptocurrencies came out to address different solutions, such as offering faster transaction speed or shorter block processing time. Examples like Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple are just a few representations of an ocean of similar cryptocurrencies that emerged out to claim their domains in the cyberspace. Below we are listing the top 8 cryptocurrencies and their features for comparison purposes. SOURCES: https://www.ig.com/sg/cryptocurrency-trading/cryptocurrency-comparison All cryptocurrencies – including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others – share a few key characteristics:
A transparent, auditable, and predictable supply schedule
Censorship resistant – no one can prevent any holder from spending his crypto.
Permission-less – a user does not need to ask for permission to begin using these systems. He just downloads software, generates private keys, and can start, no questions asked.
Self-sovereign – a user owns bearer assets. He doesn’t need to rely on a trusted party, and therefore he can walk across borders carrying $1B in his head.
Divisible — can be divided into small increments that can be used in exchange for goods of varying values
Portable — meaning that it can be carried
Fungible — meaning all units are essentially interchangeable3
However, the differences of these cryptocurrencies are mostly technical. It requires more observation time to determine what role each cryptocurrency is playing to justify the purpose of their existence. Currently Ethereum is experimenting the smart contract domain, Ripple is attempting to facilitate faster cross-border remittance settlement, and Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash is trying to improve the transaction speed to allow day-to-day payments using cryptocurrencies. These utilities are all essential to build a complete new ecosystem powered by blockchain, but it may take decades for multiple testing to eventually reach wide adoption. From an investment point of view, only bitcoin seems to justify the claim of a digital gold, or a decentralized store of value. After all, it possesses the largest networking effect, longest blockchain, most secured and decentralized network, and accepted by most merchants.
Return Profiles of Bitcoin
In the past 10 years, bitcoin has risen from almost nothing to over $9,700 today4 (at the time of publication). Although the volatility is extreme, it is slowly gaining adoption and attracting investors from a long term perspective.
As an emerging asset class itself, bitcoin is still making its case to become mainstream. Although the return profile has been very strong, the volatility and uncertainty is still worrisome for most traditional investors. What about just allocate a little exposure to this asset class? What does the return profile look like when you add some cryptocurrencies into your traditional portfolio? In a research paper published by Bitwise Investments in May 2018, it found that by adding a small allocation to crypto assets in a traditional, diversified portfolio (60% equity / 40% bonds), the return profile can experience a significant change. https://preview.redd.it/0xz5soa3dug41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=59a8888830eddbb4154f76499b761bd82c740dc7 To evaluate the role of bitcoin in a portfolio, the study looked at the impact of making a 5% allocation to bitcoin and holding that position for the duration. The bitcoin allocation was drawn on a pro-rata basis from the equity and bond positions, meaning the portfolio (which we will call the “HODL Portfolio”) started with a 57% allocation to stocks and a 38% allocation to bonds. https://preview.redd.it/pd77jhm5dug41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=2692ad8e6e7edaffd75cdc9a62de344087b81e28 The impact of this small bitcoin allocation was dramatic. Bitcoin’s strong performance during the study’s timeframe powered the portfolio higher, with total returns jumping from 26.53% to 67.70%. Of course, the volatility and maximum drawdown also increased at the same time, but as an illustration, a small percentage of bitcoin allocation can really impact the entire portfolio performance.
Bitcoin has emerged as a new asset class that can now be considered as an investment tool, although its use can also be justified as a digital store of value, a native internet of money, and a median of exchange. While other cryptocurrencies are still testing various use cases in the blockchain domain, it is overall beneficial to have some crypto exposures. The return profile of bitcoin has proven to be strong in the past decade, and the millennials are accumulating the crypto assets in their long-term retirement accounts. In the next 10 years, this group will be the prime income-earning population. Morgan Stanley recently posted a report suggesting that a weak environment for economic growth and inflation, paired with low bond yields, the returns from a traditional portfolio made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds will deliver a 2.8% annual return over the next 10 years, the lowest level in nearly a century.10 Perhaps it is time to for investors to reconstruct the portfolio composition and add some bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to boost up the overall returns. Thank you,Tokenomy Team
The Block Time of BCH should be Shorten（建议缩短BCH出块时间）
As we take BCH as a convenient and fast p2p e-cash, we have to shorten the block time as soon as possible. BCH想成为方便快捷的点对点电子现金，应该尽快缩短出块时间。 https://preview.redd.it/8m6a28kpjkb31.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=a30d0604120a5e13989a102b9d2c283752369ec5 BCH's current block time is 10 minutes. Since BTC, BCH and BSV chains use the same SHA256 mining algorithm and the BTC is larger, the real block time of BCH which as a small chain will severely fluctuate when the price changes. In the past week (1000 blocks), there were 61 times out of 30 minutes block time, 22 times up to 45 minutes , and eight times in more than an hour. The longest block time was up to an hour and 38 minutes! BCH现在的区块时间是10分钟，由于BTC、BCH和BSV三个链都使用SHA256挖矿算法，且BTC的规模更大，所以在价格波动时，作为小链的BCH的出块时间会发生大幅波动。在过去的一周内（1000个区块），BCH的出块时间超过30分钟有61次，超过45分钟有22次，超过1小时则达到8次，几乎每天都会遇到，最长达到1小时38分钟！ https://preview.redd.it/hs77dytqjkb31.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f064cc1388ff94a52110c7a5c6a52597575707d Even the situation of BTC is much better than BCH. At the same time, the block time of more than one hour happened only two times. Moreover, BTC holders have almost given up the payment function of the main chain, instead using BTC as a value storage tool, and they are ready to wait for all the time. But BCH is prepared as cash for payment! 连BTC的情况都要比BCH好很多，同样的时间里，超过1小时的出块时间只有2次。并且，BTC持有者已经几乎放弃了主链的支付功能，把BTC当做价值存储工具，他们做好了等待的准备。而BCH却是要做支付工具的！ https://preview.redd.it/aak8b40sjkb31.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=c159024b55fb14c6af04861143f4a43c6c4521e9 In a BCH payment case where more than one confirmation is required, the user often encounters an hour to confirm. This is intolerable in modern society at a high frequency trading. As far as I know there are at least three cases using BCH require more than one confirmation, instead of zero confirmation: 在需要1个以上确认的BCH支付场景中，用户时常遇到1小时才能确认。这在高速运转的现代社会是无法容忍的！就我所知，至少有三种BCH交易场景要求1个以上确认，而不能采用0确认： 1）Exchange top-up. All exchanges now require more than one confirmation in cryptocurrency top-up. Generally, exchanges will require six confirmations and BCH-friendly exchanges (such as Huobi) require three confirmations to be received when BCH supporters' exchanges (such as Coinex) require only one confirmation. 1）交易所充值。现在所有的交易所都要求密码货币1个以上确认才能充值到账。一般交易所会要求BCH充值6个确认到账；对BCH友好的交易所（比如火币）要求3个确认到账；BCH支持者的交易所（如Coinex）要求1个确认到账。 2) Local.bitcoin.com wallet top-up. When I received an OTC order in local.bitcoin.com but my balance was insufficient, it turned that I had to top up soon as possible. This top-up required one confirmation before I can use it. However, waiting for more than 30 minutes is likely to cause the OTC order to fail. 2）local.bitcoin.com钱包充值。当我接到一笔OTC订单，但我在local.bitcoin.com的余额不足时，我必须尽快充值到local.bitcoin.com钱包，这个充值要求1个确认后才能使用。等待30分钟以上，就很有可能导致这笔OTC交易失败。 3) Bitpay wallet top-up. I had to top up in the Bitpay wallet for shopping when there was not sufficient balance, it had to be waited for more than 30 minutes, then I would rather pay in another way rather than BCH. 3）bitpay钱包充值。当使用bitpay支付渠道购物时，遇到bitpay钱包余额不足，我必须先充值到bitpay钱包，等待1个确认，然后才能支付。如果1个确认需要等待30分钟以上，那么我宁愿用bitpay之外的方式支付了。 Regardless of the exchange wallet, local.bitcoin.com wallet, or Bitpay wallet these are hot wallets. An experienced BCH user will not save a lot of bch in the hot wallet. Therefore, the more frequently users who use the BCH for transactions and payments, the more frequently they will face the top-up confirmation waiting time of 30 minutes or more. It is enough to drive away the most loyal users of BCH in the long run, unless they only hold coins and rarely trade and pay. 无论交易所钱包、local.bitcoin.com钱包，还是bitpay钱包，这些都是热钱包。一个经验丰富的BCH用户不会在热钱包存大量的bch。因此，越是频繁使用BCH进行交易和支付的用户，就越要频繁面对30分钟甚至1个小时以上的充值确认等待时间。长期这样，足以赶走BCH最忠实的使用者，除非他只囤币，很少交易和支付。 In fact, the cases requiring one confirmation is much more often than the above three. Although the small consuming payment can accept 0 confirmation, almost all wallet top-ups require more than one confirmation. The long waiting time for confirmation is the worst part of the entire BCH business cycle. 实际上要求1确认的场景远不止以上3个，尽管最终的小额支付可以接受0确认，但几乎所有的钱包充值，都要求1个以上确认。漫长的1确认等待时间是整个BCH商业循环中最糟糕的环节。 https://preview.redd.it/eqddt3wnvkb31.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=48af0e4594c6e82a5a0fbb77d6ba349d0e13269c When the block time is shortened from 10 minutes to one minute the BCH payment experience will be greatly improved even if the exchange and wallet will increase the one confirmation to 10 confirmations. According to Doge's data, in the last 1000 blocks the fluctuations of the 10 blocks accumulated time ranged from two minutes to 17 minutes. It is far superior to the one confirmed condition of the current BCH. 当区块时间从10分钟缩短到1分钟时，即使交易所和钱包将1确认相应提高为10确认，BCH的支付体验也会有很大改善。从Doge的数据看，在最近的1000个区块中，10个区块的累积时间波动范围在2分钟-17分钟之内。远远优于现在BCH的1个确认的状况。 https://preview.redd.it/kfs4q1b1kkb31.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=c46a3de89906ee65ba21f3af647575eb40ca879d More importantly, in fact, exchanges and wallets will not increase the number of confirmations to 10 when BCH shorten the block time. I asked the CEO of Coinex Haipo Yang "Coinex now asks one confirmation for BCH top-up. If the block time of BCH is shortened to one minute, how many confirmations will be asked?" He immediately replied "One confirmation will not be changed, even LTC is one confirmation now". 更重要的是，实际上交易所和钱包并不会因为BCH出块时间缩短到1分钟，而将确认数提高到10个。我询问Coinex CEO杨海坡“Coinex现在要求BCH充值1个确认到账，如果BCH缩短到1分钟出块，Coinex会要求几个确认到账？”他立刻回答我“不会改”，现在“LTC也是1个确认”。 In fact, exchanges and wallets are more concerned with ‘confirmed on blockchain’ than ‘several confirmations.’ Most wallets and exchanges do not increase the number of confirmations when BCH shortens the time. This is a troublesome and unnecessary thing. If most exchanges and wallets are able to maintain the number of required confirmations, the user experience of BCH will increase dramatically. According to the data of Doge's last 1000 blocks, the block time within 2 minutes accounted for 85.4% and the maximum time is no more than 10 minutes. 实际上交易所和钱包更在乎的是“链上确认”，而不是“几个确认”。多数钱包和交易所并不会因为BCH缩短时间而相应提高确认数。这是一件麻烦而又不必要的事情。如果多数交易所和钱包能够保持1个确认的要求，那么BCH的使用体验将大幅提升。根据Doge最近1000个块的数据，2分钟以内的出块时间占到了85.4%，最多也不超过10分钟。 https://preview.redd.it/hajx2443kkb31.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=740c2d3351610220966b5c9d17e24613d16757ea In the Chinese community we have had a lot of discussions and most BCHer are eager to shorten the block time and wait for more people to support. But their patience is limited that I have seen some staunch supporters losing because of the lack of positive response to shortening the block time. They have experienced the toughest hash war and adhere to the ideal of BCH as the world currency. But now, when they promoted BCH to others as ‘convenient and fast electronic cash’, they often encounter great embarrassment that they have to wait for a confirmation for more than 1 hour and they can't even convince themselves ! 在中国社区，我们已经进行了大量的讨论，多数人急迫的期待缩短出块时间，并等待更多人的支持。但人们的耐心是有限的。由于缩短出块时间一直缺乏积极的回应，我看到一些坚定的支持者在流失。他们经历了最艰难的算力大战，坚守对BCH作为世界货币的理想。但现在，他们向别人推广bch是“方便快捷的电子现金”时，经常遭遇BCH1小时不能出块的尴尬，他们开始连自己都无法说服了！ We all know how simple and urgent to expand block capacity in 2016. This is the reason for the birth of BCH. Now we are facing a similar situation on the shortening block time of BCH. When the block is shortened to one minute the users can get the waiting time reduced by 90 percent in many cases and no longer worry about waiting for an hour. Why not do it right away? 我们都知道2016年扩大区块容量的逻辑多么简单而又紧迫，那是BCH诞生的原因。现在BCH缩短出块时间面临类似的情况，出块缩短到1分钟，用户就能在很多场景中减少9/10的等待时间，不再为1个小时的确认等待而苦恼。为什么不立即去做呢？ (For more information, please check the link below: https://medium.com/@ChangyongLiu/proposal-to-shorten-the-block-time-of-bch-1d7e8e897497 ) （对缩短出块时间有更多疑问，可以参考我的更详细的一份建议：https://medium.com/@ChangyongLiu/proposal-to-shorten-the-block-time-of-bch-1d7e8e897497）
Bitcoin as gold in a time of economic experimentation and geo-political tension
Boss Crypto Letter To Investors #5 - August Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital. Bitcoin As Gold The narrative around Bitcoin as “digital gold” or “gold 2.0” has been strengthening in recent months and we have even seen Bitcoin slip into a strong inverse correlation to US stocks. For us, this is not a new story and the potential for Bitcoin to shine in this arena is something we have been propagating for years. The topic is hotly debated given the potential diversification benefits that exposure to Bitcoin has in portfolio construction. There are certain times when Bitcoin trades in line with risk assets, selling off when equity volatility spikes and when liquidity runs dry, however it has little to no correlation with traditional asset classes like commodities, bonds, currencies, or stocks. The world unfolding around us is brewing the perfect storm that most perma Bitcoin bulls have been waiting for since the beginning. Bitcoin has only ever existed in a global bull-market and perhaps for the first time in 10 years that might be about to change. Amid extreme monetary policies and rising geopolitical tensions the narrative for Bitcoin as digital gold has scarcely been stronger. Combine this with the fact that investors are starving for growth and unable to hit their benchmarks with traditional portfolio’s the comparison between the current Bitcoin market cap and the market cap for investible gold becomes an enticing proposition. The best part? A comparison to gold might not even be the end of the road for Bitcoin. Right now there are almost no assets that largely sit outside the purview of any single government. If we see the political tensions in our world rise and the ability of these governments to service their debts comes into question the demand for non-sovereign assets is likely to boom. The rising risk of currency devaluation, especially among reserve currencies, combined with its non sovereign nature is a longer-term catalyst that may propel BTC to new untold heights. The opportunity cost of not holding Bitcoin is getting higher every day as the long-term outlook for traditional asset classes and growth continues in a downward spiral. Late In The Cycle In this edition I wanted to take a step back to look at the global macro economic environment. I believe that we are entering an era where the understanding of economics and appropriate investment principles will be imperative for success. As of July we have now officially seen the longest period of sustained growth in history and it’s getting late (perhaps very late) in that cycle. -Bleak global growth projections -Trade wars -Weak inflation -$14 trillion of negative yielding debt -Unprecedented monetary policies -Late in the cycle stimulus -Declining corporate profits -Stocks rallying into the promise of rate cuts and additional stimulus -Explosion of low quality credit -Explosion of IPO’s showing just as explosive losses The global slowdown everyone has been fearing is starting to show up in economic data. With short term interest rates already low economic stimulus measures may need to be more extreme to be effective. The central banks of our world are preparing the global market for more rate cuts and additional stimulus as they attempt to prolong the current economic expansion, seemingly “forever”. The implication of economic policies favouring growth (including the forecast for multiple rate cuts by the end of 2019) are already impacting market prices and portfolio structure. As we have talked about many times in previous letters, investors are being pushed further and further out on the risk curve in their search for a return high enough to satisfy their benchmarks. With government debt yields, fixed income and traditional value assets underperforming the focus has shifted to growth assets throwing support behind Bitcoin for the time being. Money Supply and Risk Assets Monetary policy plays a significant role in markets. When there is an increase in the money supply there tends to be a strong performance in risk assets while at the same time pushing investors further out the risk curve as they compete for the best returns. Lower rates and more relaxed monetary policy not only encourages borrowing (creating a surplus of money) it also forces investors to change the way they invest because it damages the potential returns from traditionally safe assets. It is speculated that the Fed will keep the door open for further rate cuts by the end of 2019, but be careful when analysing how much of this has already been priced into the markets, including Bitcoin. Generally speaking investors are willing to pay higher multiples when the other alternatives available to them are unattractive. Right now bond yields across the board from sovereign to corporate debt are very unattractive which has pushed investors towards equities. Analysis The almost illogically high concentration of Bitcoin and high-caps in our portfolio has continued to bring in immense rewards over the past few months. There were only 12 projects with a market capitalization over $15 million which outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date. UTXO Analysis When looking at the base of Bitcoin holders compared to our previous reports not much has changed in the last three months. Holders in the 3-5 year bands have decreased however the reason for the decrease is not from selling, it is because they have been moved into the 5+ year bands which is sitting around all time highs at 21.5% of total Bitcoin supply. The only longer dated band with a noticeable amount of sellers was the 1-2 year band where sellers accounted for about half of the 1.8% decline in that band, and a shift into the 2-3 year band representing the other half. By far the largest amount of selling during the recent rally can be found in the youngest bands. Holders in the 3-6 month band and 6-12 month band respectively. The 3-6 month band has come down from down from 10.2% to 6.8% with selling accounting for the majority of the drop. Liquid Supply (Defined as coins that have moved in the last 90 days) The majority of this liquid supply is continuing to come from short term UTXO’s (traders). When compared to the previous cycle bottom we can see a very similar pattern emerge. Around July 2015 the liquid supply began to increase as trading activity began to draw in speculators again. During this same period long term holders remained unphased. This type of movement is correlated with a rise in volatility as trading volumes begin to influence the velocity of price. From a cyclical perspective it is likely that volatility is peaking now. If that proves to be true it is likely that the liquid supply will again decrease over the coming months. It wasn’t until then 2017 bull run that long term holders started to contribute to the increased liquid supply, so without large increases or decreases in price I feel it is unlikely that long term holders will be drawn into trading and the current cycle of holding will dominate. Conclusion One thing that I would like for you to remember here is that despite the potentially favorable economic environment for Bitcoin it is very important to note the following: In the face of any serious economic downturn, market crash or correction there will be a shortage of credit and a shortage of liquidity. This forces investors to sell off assets as they scramble for cash and risk assets are often sold off first. When investors need cash, they may need to sell their Bitcoin, no matter how badly they “wish” to hold it. A prudent Bitcoin investor will understand that Bitcoin is still an asset and has not yet proven itself in serious crisis as a miracle hedge, or even as a viable digital gold. . . . Taken from the Boss Crypto VIP Newsletter at: https://bosscrypto.co/
Preamble: I always post my viewpoint on a sub with an opposing standpoint for the sole reason that the best way to learn is from critique and thus my choice of posting here. Please don’t confuse rebuttals with trolling, it's often just often just a misunderstanding on either or both party’s side. Please refrain from pointing out people or altcoins and evaluate premises on their own merits. Also please consider a comment before down voting. So, as might be deduced I am against the notion that everyone should run a full node and that instead miners can be ‘trusted’ (due to economic incentives) to provide an honest chain on the one with most proof of work and that SPV is good enough for 99% of users. Hopefully the hypothetical scenario following will help to further (or weaken) my case and understanding. Note that this was a shower thought and might be crushed with a single comment (which will be good and what I’m here for). Introducing Bitcoin with zero greenhouse gas emissions and improved security consensus rules: Consider these hypothetical changes to Bitcoin’s consensus rules for a hypothetical upgrade to full nodes (note again this is very quick thoughts so over time this could be improved significantly).
All nodes must be fully validating.
Miners are no longer producing blocks.
Instead take any nominated existing SHA256 blockchain and keep track of block hashes on its longest (most POW) chain. Let's call this chain sChain. The amount of hash power on that chain is not as important but still non trivial. The purpose of this header chain will be to timestamp and order Bitcoin’s blocks as well as determining who the block producer should be. We can take the reference hash as sChain’s latest mined block - 10,000 or something to use a hash that is buried under a lot of POW.
The new consensus rules will also require nodes to keep track of the 1,000 (or any arbitrary amount) of addresses that are most funded (biggest balance). These will be the new block producers.
On each block (n) that is found on sChain, take the block hash of block n - 10,000. Calculate the distance between this hash and the hash of the 1,000 block producers addresses and order descending.
Take 5% (or any arbitrary percentage) from the top of the list. These 50 are now eligible to create a block. The block produced will include all relevant info like the sChain block hash used and a signature confirming the block producer is indeed the owner of said address. If multiple blocks are published the same first seen rules are followed.
The number of top funded addresses and percentage chosen off the ordered list per block can be dynamically adjusted by further consensus rules that keeps orphans to an acceptable level but also not where no blocks are produced. There is probably a bit of work that needs to go into this but let's assume for argument's sake this is enough for it to have similar amount of orphan blocks as are currently produced.
Block producers don’t have any other overheads than a normal full node so they don’t need to be incentivised. However they will still likely take transaction fees to ensure highest paying transactions gets prioritised for inclusion in a block and to avoid spam (or some other scheme can be invented here)
… a lot more can be added to make this idea more robust but the general idea should now be clear
So here we have a new and improved Bitcoin that is environmentally friendly and significantly more secure due to the fact that you can compound security by taking a hash that is buried under sChain's POW for as far back as you wish. Looking forward to those spotting flaws in my preliminary thoughts on this (I am expecting a lot to be honest). So in the hypothetical scenario that this POW leaching consensus model holds (after this initial suggestion is optimised to as good as it can be) then do we not have to rethink this every node should be validating all transactions idea? EDIT: After some discussion I want to make some revisions (mainly to remove any POS'ish incentives the initial description might have created)... 1) There will be no rewards whatsoever for creating blocks 2) The block producers are chosen randomly from UTXO set based on sChain's block hashes
Bitcoin then surmounting that level may lead to even greater gains, with some calling for “new highs.” Bitcoin Could Soon Revisit $10,500. According to a pseudonymous trader with tens of thousands of followers, there is a “liquidity pool” at $10,500 that Bitcoin will likely retest. He said that this is likely to happen “sooner or However, when it comes to holding, Litecoin [LTC] took the cake with 119 days of holding period. As LTC halving approaches, the community, which was praying for the coin’s journey to the moon, is going through a rough patch. However, the coin was seen making a recovery effort. Apart from Litecoin, 0x [ZRX] had an impressive holding time of Bitcoin surpasses the $9,000 mark for the first time. 28 November 2017 $10,000 Bitcoin surpasses $10,000 for the first time. 29 November 2017 $11,000 Bitcoin surpasses $11,000 for the first time. 5 December 2017 $12,000 Bitcoin surpasses $12,000 for the first time. 6 December 2017 $13,000 Bitcoin surpasses $13,000 for the first time. 7 December The price of Bitcoin made a new record high above $4,300 today and is now up roughly 350% year to date or 643% over the past 12 months. If you add in the free Bitcoin Cash distributed to Bitcoin holders, the current value of Bitcoin is closer to $4,600. In this article, I will lay out the case for why a Bitcoin price of $1 million is not as Name Price 24H (%) Bitcoin (BTC). $11,177.82
Longest Time Holding Daksina Tada Garudasana Yoga Pose on Bricks by an Individual Male EWR20195885
50+ videos Play all Mix - Zhou Tonged - Bitcoin's Here (Drake - Started From The Bottom) YouTube James Baldwin Debates William F. Buckley (1965) - Duration: 58:58. The Riverbends Channel 2,059,722 ... The Longest Time Holding Daksina Tada Garudasana Yoga Pose on bricks by an Individual (Male) lasted for 2 Minutes and 1 Second was set by Dr.V.Gunasekaran, Founder-Maragatham Yogalayam at ... 50+ videos Play all Mix - Zhou Tonged - Bitcoin's Back (Eminem - Without Me) YouTube Zhou Tonged - Cyprus Anthem (Swedish House Mafia - Don't You Worry Child) - Duration: 3:47. ZhouTonged 59,300 views Zhou Tonged - Holding (Billy Joel - The Longest Time) - Duration: 3:16. ZhouTonged 94,082 views. 3:16. ... The Bitcoin Trader (The Official Bitcoin Trading Song) - Duration: 2:37. 50+ videos Play all Mix - Zhou Tonged - Holding (Billy Joel - The Longest Time) YouTube; ... Lovesong for Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin Whitepaper ("Everything Has Changed", Taylor Swift cover) ...