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Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
- 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
- 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
- The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
- 19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
- 3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
- 17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
- There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/
There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt.
Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post.
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time
Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
If you're on reddit you're probably a millennial or gen z and you're likely gen 1 or gen 2. Most hmong parents arnt the most financially savvy people out there so I thought I'd post this in hopes that it helps some of yall out.
The current situation should be reality check that highlights 1 thing for our generation:
Have enough cash and investments to support yourself
If you're a millennial this is probably the 2nd major recession in your working career, all within the span of less than 15 years. If you're just entering the job market then prepare for losses, wage cuts, uncertainty and wage stagnation for perhaps years to come. Recovery will happen, but unlike the stock market the economy usually lags.
- Save enough cash to support yourself - 3 months minimum
Savings: At a minimum you should have enough cash to cover 3 months of costs in case of job loss. However, this is really the minimum you should strive for before thinking about investments. I'm personally more comfortable with 5-6 months of expenses and even more if you own a house.
- 401k, HSA There are probably more plans out there but these are the two most common. You should be maximizing your contributions up to whatever the company match is. If you're young and healthy, you may want to think about actively managing both and changing the funds to support higher growth.
401k: Contribute up to the company match. 401k is funded by pretax money and the company match is all free money. If you dont think you can or have the time to beat the match, then leverage 401ks to the maximum. Don't have enough to contribute? Each raise you earn increase your 401k contribution to whatever your raise is. Should you contribute the yearly maximum? It depends on the match and if it's worthwhile. 401ks are a money jail so it's not worth-while to simply invest more if it does not earn you additional match money. There are better ways to invest your money.
Which fund should you choose? Again if you're on the younger side, you should probably be in 90% or more in stocks.
HSA: If you're young and/or healthy then you will want to maximize you're HSA contributions. This money is yours forever and often comes with a company match. After meeting the minimum account balance you can invest any additional contributions, just like your 401k.
You'll always have both accounts and the government has made it clear that they will waive penalties for withdrawals in cases of crisis like covid.
- Roth IRA and Brokage accounts
Fully vested in 401k and HSA? Roth IRA and brokage accounts may be what you're looking for. Both Roth IRA and brokage accounts allows you to invest in individual stocks. What's the difference? Roth IRA gains are tax free but you arnt allowed to withdraw gains without paying a penalty and taxes until you reach retirement age. You can still pull out what you contribute at any time. A brokage account allows you to pull your gains and contributions out at any time, but any gain on any sale is subject to tax, regardless if you withdraw from your account or not.
The general advice is if you're investing for retirement, go with a roth ira and contribute the maximum you can each year, then fund your brokage account with any extra. If you're investing to gamble or to try and earn extra cash, a brokage account gives you more flexibility on managing your earnings.
I use my Roth IRA as a second savings accounts and invest when I see good entry points. Roth gives me liquidity while also being able to invest, compared to a 401k.
The market will only grow, maybe not in the short term with the whole covid recession, but better believe it will in the long term.
- FIRE: Financial Independence, Retire Early.
You may have heard of FIRE, but the essence is to become Financially independent and retire early. I'm not a big fan of the following it exactly but I am a fan of being Financially independent enough to not worry about what I choose for work. But if you live FIRE, more power to you.
The single biggest costs for most people are their homes. If you can pay off your home early then a large financial burden has been taken care and while you may not be financial independent you will have an extremely large amount of flexibility. If you want to work at Costco, you can! That's what being financially flexible affords you.
- Real estate and Land
Yes, some people make bank flipping and renting. But profiting from a flip is estimated to be harder and harder with home prices where they are today. I dont have any expertise here beside just beginning to dive into the indusrty but from what I hear from my builder, realtor and flipping people is that we are expecting a down turn in home prices in the 2nd half of the year if covid continues to decimate the economy. Low interest rates however may offset some of this in the short term. Right now it's still a sellers market but high end houses are sitting.
- Credit cards
Points, points, points..seriously there's no other way to buy than with a credit card, not even mentioning security benefits. Cash, debit cards, PayPal, bitcoin, all worthless when compared to credit cards. Use credit cards to pay for everything you can.
If you're not disciplined enough, don't open cards to every department store either, you're get a credit hit if your credit is accessed too often and it becomes difficult to manage after too many cards.
Look at cards that provide the most points for your dollar. Cards that allow you to transfer points to partners often yield even more savings, especiallyon things like travel. Chase cards are great and Freedom is a great first card to have.
The key to credit cards is not to spend what you dont have and to pay off the STATEMENT BALANCE every month. To avoid interests, you need only pay off the STATEMENT BALANCE and not the full balance every month. Never take credit card loans or get into credit card debt, it's going to be a bad time.
- Pay off debt
There's always a fine line between investing and paying off debt. The debt we're talking about here is debt with relatively low interest rates like student loans, car loans and homes. Anything debt with high rates, like credit card debt, should be paid off immediately.
The general rule of thumb is if you can make more investing than the interest rates of the loans, invest, else pay off debt. But, investing involves risk while paying off debt is a sure thing. There's also the emotional factor. Some people don't care about debt because they want to be working their entire lives and are willing to pay it off over the long term, and that's perfectly fine. In that case, invest invest invest. Personally i think there is a balance, I rather be debt free and financially flexible than be straddled with debt.
To pay off debt, one of the most popular methods is the snow ball method. The essence of the theory is to pay off the highest interest debt off first. Once paid off, while keeping the payments the same, tackle the next highest interest debt and so on so forth. Eventually you are paying off more and more with the same payments, hence the snow ball effect. Google it for more precise definitions.
- Travel, hobbies and enjoying life